So I’m running about 4-6 against good Guiles right now. That’s an improvement for me, but not as much of one as I’d hoped, and I think after everyone gets used to the new changes that it’ll probably fall back down a bit beyond that.
The main reason is roundhouse flash kick, which is really, really good. You can no longer try predictive lariats within a third of a screen of Guile, because roundhouse flash kick beats that (from farther out the flash kick will either whiff on your lariat or actually lose to it, but whatever, that’s never going to come up against a good Guile). You can no longer jump at a third of a screen unless it’s in reaction to a sonic boom or unless Guile is standing/jumping, because roundhouse flash kick beats that. You now have to be more wary of trying to counterpoke his normals at your regular counterpoke range, because roundhouse flash kick beats that too. If Guile is cornered and you safe jump in and he does roundhouse flash kick, well, you’re safe, but Guile is now out of the corner, and while you get to punish him, your punishment isn’t going to be as damaging as it was both position-wise and damage-wise as it would have been if he’d stayed cornered.
The other reason is the new toward+roundhouse overhead, it’s a source of a pretty significant percentage of the damage Guile can do to you now. Every time he walks up with a boom it’s now a straight-up 50/50. I’ve tried lariating to beat the overhead because I’d heard that he can’t do boom-overhead as an airtight string, but I haven’t gotten it once, and that makes me think it can be airtight. Every time he walks up to you with boom, it’s just a guess, and since neither overhead nor low attack leads to a more preferable outcome than the other, there aren’t any odds you can play other than 50/50 and what you think he’s gonna do. I think that if we were playing offline this might be different because I think I might be able to react to the overhead with a block, but whatever, we’re playing online where I can react sometimes but not usually.
Gief’s green hand has about the same usefulness here as it did in ST, which is to say not really all that much. If you guess he’s going sonic boom and do a green hand and you guessed right, hooray, but that’s not very common. Hop is good for a surprise if for some reason he’s not throwing booms, but if you’re at a range where hop won’t hit him, why is he not throwing booms? You can harass him with lariat and try to counterpoke him with your normals into holding down-back and then hop when he gets used to crouch blocking, but this kind of harassment has suddenly become a lot riskier than it was before considering the new roundhouse flash kick. And I think this is probably the same deal as the overhead thing; if we were playing offline, I think Guile would probably be able to react to the hop and flash kick me (or jump away, etc) the majority of the time.
Punch lariat doesn’t work well against crouching forward, I’ve only seen it beat crouching forward 5 times out of a week’s worth of play. Kick lariat is probably the most useful change because it’s good for lariating through booms and low forwards up into 360, but this is only useful when Guile has a boom out, because otherwise you’re asking for a flash kick.
Seriously, roundhouse flash kick takes a real big bite out of Gief’s gains.