I think I’ve played you online. I think you mainly play chun and my gief hates you. What can he beat your jumping forward with?
Anyway Guile… It’s hard, and this guy playing negatively is pretty much playing smartly. Why would he want to do anything that makes gief close to him.
I know the guile matchup a bit like rock paper scissors or sort. Each guile tactic usually has a very specific counter tactic, So it helps to learn what way guile will try and punish you then counter his attempt at punishing. Initially it relies very much on anticipation, but once you can apply pressure you can trick them into making mistakes and get into SPD range.
Guile players tend to use several different tactics repeatedly that work very well to shut gief down.
Sonic booms. Lariat to avoid them on approach. If you’re going to green hand through and try and attack I think the best way to do so is to space it so hand eats the boom and puts you right on the edge of guile’s low forward (or w/e his longest ranged poke is) then Gief’s big toe (C.RH) will beat or trade (probably in gief’s favour, but the knock-down is sometimes handy to rattle guile’s cage) any pokes he tries to throw at you. If he expects you to try and do this (or quick lariat to sweep) then
I’d guess he’ll start throwing booms at you when you get to the range you’ll be able to punish his pokes with big toe. If you can correctly anticipate this then you get a free-jump in on him.
Running bear grab also works well if you can make him hesitate and block low pokes.
If you can play this part well then flash kick might not even come into it (except in situations when guile is waking up and you’re trying to keep pressure on him with meaties. If he’s good at reversals on wakeup, just block and punish, as a fair few guile players can tend to be quite reversal flash kick happy when gief floors them and gets close.
The new RH flash kick can be a bit of a pain due to it’s range, but if he starts punishing lariats and hands from that range, then try baiting it with a quick lariat and punishing after. Good timing will net you a tick into SPD, or at worst a big toe sweep.
Overall I think flash kicks aren’t the most annoying part of his game imo, just don’t ever think that jumping is a good idea if he’s not trying to spam sonic booms at you.
Gief’s suicide hop is also worth noting to punish people who use guile’s C.RH. Assuming you block or are out of range on the first sweep you can hop the second and SPD guile.
If you know he’s only going to react to your moves then try baiting him. Quick lariat, C.short/forward (shorter range and recovers faster but looks identical to Big toe in terms of animation) maybe even try jumping straight up at a range that makes trying for a flash kick seem very tasty. You could even try walking into range of something and going straight into a block. See if you can discern a pattern or type of counter he uses in these situations and then react with your own counter.
If he’s just going to sit and wait for you I’d say running bear might be an idea to let him know he can’t just sit there. He’s playing smart by keeping away, but if guile isn’t pro-actively harrassing gief then he’s just letting you get close which isn’t really good for him.
I think Honda is way worse than guile. Guile is pretty flimsy once you have him on the back-foot. The pain is just trying to spot openings and capitalise. If your execution is good he’ll lose a good chunk the first time you get an SPD on him and you can make him a bit panicky and keep the pressure on from that point. If he’s only ever going to react to you then make note of how he reacts, bait him into reacting and then counter or punish.
