I think he’s free, even when you’re in his face =P
If he’s a walldive-heavy player (read: newb), then you want to beat it with either a jumping attack or a well timed zonk knuckles as late as possible.
If he’s playing a proper ground footsie game, then you want to take your time. Throw some rocks from full screen. Is he jumping? ry to bait it now with a fake stone, and HK RK him outta the air.
If he’s not falling for the bait, then play a rushdown footsie game with him.
Your RK’s beat all of his attacks, including his farthest pokes, sHP/sMK, on reaction.
Have a zonk charged up at all times. Some Vega’s like to end poke strings with a roll. As soon as you see him curl up for it, BINGO dat ass.
If he’s doing the dreaded juMK, don’t jump at him, don’t dash under him. Inch forward, just outside of his range. If he doesn’t jump, then congratulations, you’re now close range to him. If he jumps again, launch a HK RK to counter it, combo if desired.
If you can get around midrange on him, he won’t let you walk to him anymore. If you try to walk, you’ll eat a cMP/cLP, maybe combo’d. Use stuff like your sweep, fMP, fHK, and your specials to get close, while using your standing normals to control space (I think they’re all great at controlling a specific area).
It’s also not bad to use the bad stones, because I feel they help a lot in getting close. If you can get him hit or even blocking it, it gives you a lot of time to get closer. Just don’t do it too close, as his jump is quick, and he can probably punish you on reaction.
Once you get in on him, never ever let him away! You worked hard to get close to him, now make him work hard to get out.
Shenanigans to watch out for:
Izuna Drop loop - As far as I can tell, BINGO will get you out.
Wall Jump - as he can get a lot of air distance, always be ready to antiair him, especially since he can jump so quick, and he has one of the fastest (if not THE fastest) wall jump.
cMPxxLP Roll loop - BINGO it
EX Sky High Claw crossup: This one’s all you. When you see a yellow ninja fly through you, and DOESN’T put you on block stun, switch your block direction immediately. If you succeed, you get a free punish =)
juMK keep away - walk; HK RK with proper spacing
Hope that helps a little! I’m still learning Cody, just like everyone else. thumbs up
-edit-
EX RK can punish blocked headbutt from Honda =)