I can understand that point and I can understand what you mean by random when you are talking about that, I played against Dante and he’s definitely one of the most mind fucking characters in the game. It gave me a much clearer idea of how people think this game is random because the game is so complex
The thing with normal fighting games is that you have a limited amount of options at certain spaces, take something simple like SF where most mus are played through zones and characters have limited optimal options around those zones with not much else to do. For example a Ryu full screen won’t really do anything that will create an immediate threat to you and his main options are simply moving forward/ throwing a fireball/feinting a fireball, closer up hell play footsies with crMK/sweep/throwing a riskier fireball/ baiting a jump to anti air you/Or Dash and throw. Options in a game like SF4 are much much more limited and predictable in a game like Marvel.
In Marvel there is simply too much stuff to account for and too many variables to deal with, not only points with huge mobility and broken moves that will not exist in other games(Magneto’s 7f full screen poke disruptor for example, or photon array which covers 300 degrees around the character), but their assists are also hard to account for and comprehend, giving the feeling of randomness when playing against something you are not familiar with. Dante is a great example, it’s very hard to get a read on Dante because of his multitude of options, there is no other character in the game with as many options as a standing Dante, let alone Dante with assists, at any point he can Stinger/Reverb/Drive/ Teleport + an assist like Vajra/Hysteric/Acid Rain/Crystal/Airplay/Drive/ jS or Hammer up close/ dash up and poke grounded or boxdash jM/JH at you, add assists to the mix and getting a clean read is much harder to deal with.
This game is definitely not random, just there are way too many ridiculous options in the screen at one time to properly deal with and react to and block on reaction with 2 assists on each side and each point(especially top tier characters) with a plethora of options at their disposal. Guessing games exist in every fighthing game, SF4 meta right now is very guess heavy and there is a lot of guessing involved in the knockdown games with 50/50 situations just as “random” as Marvel(sup Fei jM which crosses up or fakes a cross up depending on the timing it’s pressed on, with plenty more stupid stuff like that, doesn’t that remind you of Magneto’s fucking up their jL plink and opening you up with a crL?), and even pressure in a game like SF4 is a guess because throws>>Blocking>>Frame traps>>Throws and Reversals>>Frame traps/Throws but Blocking>>Reversals, so every single time you apply pressure on a knockdown in SF4 post the first meaty hit(which is OS’d) is simply a RPS guessing game. So it’s not the guessing and blocking which leads to Marvel’s random stigma, it’s simply the complete and utter nonsense of the strength of options and hitboxes in this game along with derpy ass mixups along with the plethora of options, that create this feeling of randomness. Other than stupid TAC guessing(which isnt completely random and baits and TAC tech adds more depth to them) and Phoenix Wright/Hsienko there is really nothing random about this game, it’s hard to comprehend and make sense of due to the billion options and the strength of options(hello XFactor and ToDs and dumb hitboxes), but it’s not random.
If anything games like RTS’s like Starcraft where the game is based on blind information can be a lot more random and luck based than a fighting game like Marvel where you can visually see anything on the screen and deal with it(except TACs which are dumb as hell, but then you shouldnt be complaining if you already got hit so). In an RTS, getting the right scout in at the start is completely random, and a lot of the game is built around blind builds, which can lead to large BO advantages and BO wins, take PvP in BW which is a mu notorious for this, there is almost a hard counter or huge advantage build vs any other starting build order, and the choice is blind and often the opponent simply has to guess or have a feeling that something is iffy if he doesn’t get his scout in.
tl;dr: We play fighting games and matchups based on predictions off the opponents options in a matchup during certain zones, this game has wayyyyy too many extremely strong and derpy options and assists for a person to account for, especially if unfamiliar with the match up so the game can feel overwhelming and random since it’s hard to predict what’s going to happen in certain matchups.