For any of you that know me, you know that I have ragequit this game more times than you can imagine, and yet I still always seem to come back. Knowing this, you’d probably expect me to vouch for the fact that this game is random. But the simple fact of the matter is that you’re never going to get me to say that. Allow me to explain the misconception.
The idea that the game is random comes from online matches against Lariat, or Hulk H, or any style of Vergil or Wesker. Just playing any of these characters will make you question why you even bother. When I thought about stupid mixups a few minutes ago, the first thing that I have frame data for that popped into my mind was actually, as stupid as this sounds, Akuma’s :f:. All you OGs will probably call me out on that, but you know that at one point in time, there was a moment when you were playing against a random and you got caught up by Drones and he nailed you with this. Heck, it probably happened more than once. And when you think about it, it kinda seems unfair. Akuma gets next to you while you’re helpless and hits you with this unreactable overhead that leads into one of his signature touch of death combos.
But think about it. Just how unreactable is it?
Akuma’s :f: is probably the average startup for most of the stupid mixups people complain about - 21 frames. Looking at that number actually startled me, because I was expecting more like 19 or less. But here’s the fact, and you know I’m gonna DevilJin bold this for emphasis. The average fighting gamer has a reaction time of ~0.25 seconds. That is equal to exactly 15 frames. Does that mean that from when Akuma’s :f:
starts to when it hits, you should have 6 frames to spare after you react? No. The move has a few unseeable frames during its startup. For argument’s sake, let’s say two. That’s now 17 frames you can react in. Is that all? Nope. Depending on the console, you also have to account for 2-4 frames of input lag. Let’s assume PS3, so that’s 4 frames. What does all this mean?
It means if you have average reactions, there is no room for error. That may seem unfair, but that’s actually how you weed out the good from the great. Little things like this throughout the course of a match add up, and what looked to be random is actually an extreme test of skill. So why does it seem so derpy when you actually face it?
It’s rather simple. The online mode, at the very best, adds 5 to 10 frames of input lag to everything you do. So that means that online, where most of the complainers have experience, the move is truly unreactable even in “smooth” connections. This applies to more moves and scenarios than you can imagine. That, and only that, is why I periodically rage at Marvel. Not because it’s random, not because it’s imbalanced, and not because it’s unfair; but because the vast majority of mixups become, for all practical purposes, unblockable unless you can predict it. While prediction does make you a good player, that’s not actually part of the game. That’s part of online.
TL;DR - Read it. It’s not that long, and it’s from someone who has taken well over a year of thought on the subject to come up with an answer.