I know this isn’t the Kuma forum, but he has similar problems like Abel. Ground anti-airs against moves that alter trajectory become guesses and far from solid anti-air. Not that saying Kuma is another Abel clone, but characters like Rufus with divekicks in this game and SF4 series do extremely well against characters limited to ground anti-air options. It also doesn’t help Kuma that he has to go into Hunting Stance for his better anti-air. He definitely has crazy tools (his command throw is really good), there’s no denying that. I dunno, someone prove me wrong and show me a legit bear mauling a Rufus and I’ll eat my words.
I’ve been thinking about the possible Julia metagame. Say your team is at slight life deficit. Once she gets super, it becomes a guessing game. If she somehow gets in the opponent’s face. It’s either throw out strings to bait something out, go for unsafe overhead tekken combos, or go for frame trap/tick throw mixup.
If you manage to bait something, and the opponent goes to their usual “safe” stuff (which is unsafe now because of Super), they eat a raw 310 damage. The counter to this is if they choose to downback. This is the safer option of the three for Julia.
If you choose to go offensive and take risks by using her risky mids. You may land Divine Impact which would hit at 90 damage and soft knockdown assuming the opponent was in down-back blocking the first hits. Her other mids come from Tequila sunrise or Swift Step explosion. If you try these moves canceled from a string, they are punishable because of startup. The opponent doesn’t have to be mashing to punish these moves, they’re perfectly reactable to. The only time that these get thrown in the mixup is when you score a knockdown off Tiger Strike and either Swift Step or Swift Step explosion.
But how are you supposed to land Tiger Strike if the opponent defaults to downback? So Julia is limited to Divine Impact which does measly 90 damage and a soft knockdown…
The other option is to try to tick throw. Considering how bad throws are and how much time they take, the opponent can crouch tech. Even if you bait a crouch tech and block the cr.lk, most lk’s aren’t -2 and below on block meaning you can’t use super to punish that. You’re going to have to try to bait a cr.mk or cr.mp crouch tech attempt or frame trap.
So it’s either try to bait (which is the safer option and yields more damage), go for risky overheads which don’t yield that much damage and reset the position, or go for frame traps. You can see the best option for the opponent who’s in the lead is to down-back and take those weak overheads and throws.
Even the opponent can mash out dp or backdash on the Divine impact strings because the LP,LP portion is not a true block string. Another guess that Julia needs to make. Since throw range is so bad in this game, it’s much easier to anticipate throws, which means frame traps are less effective.
Julia is essentially left with baiting as the safest and most rewarding (if it works) option to go to in terms of damage and positioning. However, the biggest counter to this is… wait for it… down-back.
The only real factor that can maybe land Julia a win is that no one plays her, or that other players don’t know her gameplan/playstyle yet. Honestly though, it doesn’t take long to figure it out on the fly.
Julia is seriously going to have most trouble against the most patient of players. I guarantee it.