Yeah, holding kick is risky since if they just sit there… still, it’ll provoke srk’s and backdashes against Dudley and Sagat. That will prevent them from always trying to srk and backdash on reaction, because they might get punished. Risk/reward is such that it’s something to do only occasionally. If we can get an srk eating oil dive set up against them, that would be much better, of course. It’d be nice to have an oil dive to eat Guile’s wake-up flash kicks as well.
So good news:
So I’m doing this particular set up: slide/press, backdash, buffered 360 motion into walking backward a particular/significant distance, lk oil dive.
Against Ryu: Beats his super. Beats all jumps and non-EX SRK’s and beats him if he crouches!!! Poor Ryu.
Against Ken: Beats his super! Beats all jumps and lp srk and beats him if he crouches.
Against Sakura: Beats all non-EX SRK’s. Beats all jumps. Beats her if she crouches.
Against Akuma: Won’t beat SRK’s, but it’ll beat his super. Again, crouching and jumping are beaten. (I did slightly different timing, that did beat his SRK’s, so we can find that again).
Against Gouken, beats non-EX tetsu, beats crouches and jumps.
Against almost everyone: Beats all crouches and jumps. Sure it beats a lot of non-EX reversals, too.
Apparently, this is the sweet spot of the lk oil dive. We have been playing with a handicapped oil dive, my Hakan brethren, until this is mastered. Side note: don’t mention this on our opponents’ forums, please :).