Let’s just agree that you have no real idea what you’re talking about, k?
http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=404141
[details=Spoiler]Beg pardon if we aren’t bouncing off the walls with the announcement that Manny Pacquiao has agreed to fight Floyd Mayweather Jr. in Las Vegas on May 2, 2015. We’ve seen this show before.
Covers has been charting the course of this potential superfight and its odds since the two kings of the boxing ring started mudslinging back in December 2009, following Pacquiao’s win over Miguel Cotto the month before.
Back then, Mayweather was penciled in as a -145 favorite with Pacquiao coming back at +115. Those odds have drastically changed in the more than five years since boxing bettors crossed their fingers and prayed to the pugilist gods that the fight would be made.
Upon announcement that Pacquiao would meet Mayweather’s lofty demands, sportsbooks online and Las Vegas blew the dust of their odds for this mega matchup and re-posted Mayweather as a -275 favorite with Pacquiao priced as a +235 underdog (Westgate Las Vegas Superbook).
“I’m not a guy who likes to look in the rear view mirror, but I said this would be an easy fight for Floyd in 2011 if they didn’t get Manny beat before he would get to Floyd and it still is,” renowned boxing oddsmaker Joey Oddessa told Covers last January, when Pacquiao said he would fight Mayweather for free.
“Fan’s caught a dose of reality. They managed to get Manny beat not once but twice, the second in devastating fashion. Manny is a moneymaker much like Floyd, but Floyd’s just that much better at both in the ring.”
Pacquiao’s decline had this bout on the ropes, following his controversial loss to Timothy Bradley and a subsequent KO defeat to Juan Manuel Márquez in 2012. He’s since avenged that loss to Bradley and posted three straight victories by way of decision, the most recent coming against Chris Algieri this past November.
Mayweather, on the other hand, hasn’t fallen from his perch atop the sport. Despite a brief retirement and troubles with the law, “Pretty Boy” turned “Money” remains unblemished with a 47-0 (26 KO) professional record with his latest victories coming in a pair of bouts versus Marcos Maidana in 2014.
Regardless of what has happened over the course of those five years, Mayweather vs. Pacquiao would still undoubtedly make a massive blip on the sports betting radar. But would it be the most-bet bout ever?
Maybe if it was made five years ago before the shine was worn off. Anticipation can build interest, though, and Mayweather-Pacquiao could challenge Tyson-Holyfield for the heavyweight crown of most-bet boxing match ever – in Nevada at least.
“I would say it would be in the Top 3,” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, tells Covers. “I imagine it would be up there but I don’t know if it would be the biggest. Those Tyson fights brought in some big money on him when he was set as the favorite.”
Stoneback says the handle for Mayweather-Pacquico could rival that of an NFL Conference Championship Game, with the fighters’ past contests drawing about the same amount of money as standout NFL regular season matchup or playoff game.
“The overall ticket count, obviously, isn’t as much. But you do have some much larger wagers come in,” he says. “And you get a lot of guys just wanting to bet these big fights. ‘Gimme Mayweather for $20’. Then they see that it’s only going to win like $4. ‘Oh, gimmie the other guy then.’”
For online sportsbooks, which were only being established in 1996 when Tyson lost to Holyfield for the first time, Mayweather-Pacquiao could be the new high-water mark for boxing betting, eclipsing Mayweather’s bout with Oscar De La Hoya in May 2007 – which stands as the biggest fight of the Internet Age.
Scott Kaminsky, sportsbook director at TheGreek.com, says undoubtedly the fight would be a global betting event - not just limited to North America or the Philippines. He says despite what the story is behind the odds, the current prices are appealing to bettors who may not be big boxing fans.
“Sometimes, you get these things with a 10/1 favorite and that scares a lot of people away,” Kaminsky tells Covers. “This is appealing, around 3/1 odds it’s a reasonable fight. People will bet that.”
Kaminsky says the expected purse for the fight and the overall revenue generated is a good indication of how much will be wagered on the match, pointing to the rise in Super Bowl handle every year with more and more people betting on sports.
“It’s all correlated,” he says. “If it’s a record purse, and generates record pay-per-view and there’s a record amount of money coming in, then it will probably have a record handle.”
Early reports estimate Mayweather, who is getting a 60/40 share of the purse, could earned $120 million. And in order to pay that bill, ticket prices would soar with organizers aiming for a $40 million live gate, which would double the $20,003,150 gate from the Mayweather-Canelo Alvarez fight at the MGM Grand in 2013.
“I expect this bout to break records everywhere,” Oddessa told Covers back in December 2009, when the two men first engaged in negotiations. “Pay-Per-Views, live gate and wagering volume. This bout quenches everyone’s thirst for a phenomenal global matchup that will determine the best pound-for-pound fighter on the planet.”
And half a decade removed, everything in that statement still sounds about right. Hopefully, this time, the bell finally rings.[/details]
tl;dr: In 2009, Pacquiao was +115 and now he’s +235. From slight underdog to heavy underdog.