Hard to say if the results of this would be any different if it was offline…
**
Analysis of First Three Matches:**
Ambiguous burn kicks are in red…
Total Burn Kicks: 43
Burn Kicks That Were Not Actual Attacks: 12
0:28 (successful bait attempt due to the followup)
0:39
0:44
1:54
4:14
4:15
4:42
4:52
5:10 (defensive move by Latif while trapped in the corner, lead to a block string for Air)
5:45 (oddly spaced, not sure what he was trying here, possible bait attempt, someone else may have another opinion)
6:20
6:23
Blocked Burn Kicks: 3
3:07 (stand block, no punish, lead to trade)
4:01 (crouch block, no punish)
4:44 (crouch block, no punish, spacing allowed for a hadoken which was focused by Latif)
Focused Burn Kicks: 4
0:26 (no crumple, no punish due to Latif’s backdash)
1:55 (no crumple, SRK punish)
2:35 (crumple, punish, he dropped the combo)
6:00 (crumple, punish cl.HP->stun)
Avoided Burn Kicks: 10
0:23 (early neutral jump, no punish, lead to a successful block string for Air)
1:32 (early neutral jump, no punish, lead to a successful block string for Air)
5:00 (early neutral jump, no punish, Air is thrown by Latif)
2:42 (early neutral jump, punish cr.MP->cr.HP combo)
2:49 (early forward jump, no punish, Air’s OS crouch tech countered by a frame trap)
6:49 (late forward jump, no punish)
1:41 (crouching normal during wake up, SRK punish was blocked, an additional SRK lead to a trade)
5:03 (crouching normal during wake up, punish cr.MK, lead to a second cr.MK->Hado combo due to a counter hit)
5:21 (psychic hadoken, punish hadoken)
5:48 (SRK, resulted in a trade)
Burn Kicks That Hit Air: 14
0:29 (early neutral jump, hit out of the air)
2:31 (late neutral jump, hit out of the air)
3:15 (late neutral jump, hit out of the air)
0:56 (psychic burn kick, no chance for Air to block, this analysis is debatable)
1:20 (psychic burn kick, no chance for Air to block)
4:02 (psychic burn kick, Air did an early cr.MP, this analysis is debatable)
4:47 (psychic burn kick, no chance for Air to block)
0:54 (combo into burn kick)
1:23 (dash burn kick, Air’s crouching MK was done too early)
1:25 (cross up on wake up, SRK did not auto-correct, was not ambiguous, corner)
1:40 (ambiguous cross up, crouching MK done too late)
2:50 (ambiguous cross up, difficult for Air to block due to the scenario but he tried)
4:56 (ambiguous cross up)
6:29 (ambiguous cross up)
Conclusions:
*It looks like Air is trying to use neutral jumps to avoid any scenario where he will have to block a burn kick.
Avoiding burn kicks with a crouching normal is not dominating but can be useful, for Ryu it seems to be most useful during his wake up.
Burn kicks are not easy to punish but can lead to block strings if you neutral jump early enough.
Early focus can be useful for Ryu in a scenario where Viper might try to jump over a fireball with a psychic burn kick.
Ambiguous burn kick is still hard to deal with.
Based on the small number of matches I viewed I think that Latif outplayed Kayo Police but it really made no difference in their opponents ability to punish Viper. Latif’s burn kicks were better spaced and less predictable than Kayo Police’s. It still seems to me like C. Viper can burn kick whenever she wants with limited consequences for doing so. The execution requirement is the limiting factor. *
I will continue this with matches later in the set to see if Air’s play style changes any…