Consider this: they gave up one person on their team who was probably going to die soon anyway for the sake of more civilians being lynched. Anyone who was under the impression that Dandy was dirty now has to shift all of the relationships that were created based on that suspicion. In the case that he was a sacrifice, these shifts would be in the wrong direction, just like the mafia would want.
And maybe the mafia wants us to think that they’re a bunch of newbies.
I don’t understand your question. Leverage what?
All of this doesn’t matter much anyway. This conjecture apparently isn’t changing anyone’s insular ideas about what happened last night. I don’t even think it’s very related to who should be lynched today. At least, there isn’t much to go off of Dandy’s death.
*No matter which option the mafia chose, they get the results of one of the UC’s actions as long as both of them are alive. I think for certain that mafia chose to recruit. I thought the turnabout mechanic was the choice between an extra member or both of the UC’s results. This will change how I viewed peoples answers to @Synonym question. It changes things alot. Me looking this over was spurred from a few things, more on that shortly.
With that out of the way we have 2 big pieces of information
The first piece:
1: Tracking the timeline of votes. Co-Jones lynch comes off to me as manufactured. Before he got lynch there was essentially two big wagons:
RadicalFuzz - Who came up as roleless. Started from Alphacommando going at Fuzz like he normally does. @Augustus voted for RF as well and I’m not entirely sure why. It might just be augustus being augustus. @Saitsu voted for Fuzz
Recessiontime - His early wagon formed in my eyes because he was a huge liability last game. Part of the “gardening initiative” seems tobe to take out flowers early, but how did the wagon go off of RT? He’s a walllflower, and I have him down in my notes as a player who cherishes self preservation. It’s actually eyebrow raising.
Yet somehow Coco ended up being the day 1 lynch. Some of it might be contributed to last game salt since he did nothing, got recruited and won. But I highly doubt that that’s the only reason.
@"Missing Person"
Can you please put the writeups/end of phases on the first page as a link. *
I’m gonna have to agree. I dont really remember Forge being this aggressive last game either if memory serves. She came right out of the gate today like “I SUSPECT ALL THESE MOTHERFUCKERS!”
A rebuttal: They gave up someone on their team that the civs would’ve lynched themselves, thus now they’ve given them more opportunities to nail down the Mafia. And we don’t have to change around anything when it comes to Dandy. His opinions when it comes to the Mafia if he’s clean is irrelevant due to lack of experience. Mafia would not pinpoint him due to that. And if he was sacked, then every suspicion he’s said was manufactured. Either way there’s absolutely no reason to put any stock to anything Dandy’s said at this point.
Forge, you’re trying to read so deep right now you’re drowning in your own paranoia.
You said this on page 1, just curious why arbitrarily give 5 players immunity for a set amount of time with literally no evidence to support their allegiance either way? This post is what really what made me vote for you as you’re not the type of player to make impulsive decisions usually. Assuming for the moment you’re a civ, if all 5 of them are alive by day 6 that’s 5 other dead civs you’re willing to let go just to defned 5 other players for literally no reason, and even if on day 6 you vote for one of those 5 and convince us to vote with you getting him lynched how do we know that you will pick the one who is mafia among them assuming there are any in that group?
Just way too many if’s, (Larry) buts, and assumptions built in to this day 1 plan of yours so that’s why you got my vote day 1 and I’ll definitely be keeping my eye on you to see if you follow through with it assuming you’re not killed before then.
So this is what started the TCJ wagon out of thin air…hmmmm you could be a civ trying to get the ball rolling so we don’t all hem and haw until it’s 1 hour before deadline nad mafia dogpile in secrecy FTW, and I’ve always advocated that style of play for civs and there’s rarely any solid lead day 1 so I don’t plan on voting for you based solely off this, but with the way things turned out, you saying "possibly LYNCHING jones sounded kind of like like you’re a mafia and you knew you could get him lynched.
And look who comes in to support bious’s vote. Again, not enough for me to support a bious lynch, but it is definitely something to keep in mind and I definitely think the night kill of dandyman90 proves mafia have a very perceptive vet on their team…like synonym.
First you write an in depth post accusing dandyman90 and then you say you want to vote TCJ…definitely fishy regardless of your alliance you can’t deny that.
This is just a theory of course, but by making us talk about a possible sacrifice we focus on something that could or could not happened instead on how Co-Jones lynch bandwagon formed or what player could have been that good to catch Dandy slip.
It also doesn’t help that i have been getting the vibe that she is playing very different, and that her targets seem to be those who are more convenient giving how weak or biased or out of context seems to be the reasons to suspect them
Like I said, I already have my target. It would take an epic blowup to make me lose sight of who I’m going after this Day Phase. So feel free to talk about whatever else and I’ll play ball. It won’t distract me in any case.
Yeah it was. I seen it on mobile awhile ago and didnt respong because mobile Vanilla sucks my balls. I remember to quote after I had posted in response to other stuff.
Unfortunately, I never directly accused Dandyman of being Corrupt. I was just pointing out all the things that rubbed me the wrong way about him. I didnt really feel like I had enough to lynch him in addition to his slip of the tongue “lol I have a power role” moment in the same post that I analyzed. Sure I had my hunches, but I was trying not to pull the trigger on accusing him of Corrupt until I had something definitive on him. You know when I pointed out that he and Icege might be the same person? I had their account pages open from then until Dandyman got night killed. I was constantly checking their “last active” stats. Lastly, Dandyman didnt have a bandwagon going. My vote on him wouldve been pretty much pointless. I opted to make sure a lynch vote tie didnt happen again. Between TCJ and Fuzz, I felt more comfortable sending TCJ to the grave since he was posting way less.
Have to go to work in a couple of hours so I’ll post now.
I honestly got nothing. All I can say for now is that I agree with Chief with his anti-wall flower sentiments. We don’t want a pure guessing game at end-game. When I get back from work I’ll post my vote, hopefully there won’t be a lynch train on me when I get back.
*The 2nd, obvious big piece of information is the night kill
Why Dandyman?
He’s a new player. Gives us little information to work with if he ends up being roleless.
The counterpoint to that is that it could be looked at as a straight up rolehunt because of this quote which I believe Augustus brought up:
It’s kinda funny because this is almost the exact thing I did to TGG last game. This was my calling card of “You’re going to be the night kill”. It could just be a weird coincidence since I thought Fuzz might be dirty because of his response to Dandyman near the top of page 4. But he was a roleless civ.
Could it have been a mafia sacrifice? Yeah, it could have been. I also could win the lottery. In other words I’m not buying that it was a mafia sacrifice on night 1. Here’s why:
if dandyman was mafia his status as a new player is invaluable. New players usually get away with more stuff since they’re new. They fly under the radar barring some massive slipup and when they do slip up it’s easy for the mafia to jump on the bandwagon the lynch and look relatively clean. Another byproduct of new players as mafia is that they don’t register salient connections to other players, which makes it harder for civs to track down who else is mafia due to their death. Usually the only way we gain information from “new player as mafia” deaths is because already established players uncharacteristically rush to their aid to deflect for them.
Furthermore, why would the mafia give away one of their members who was skating with relatively little spotlight? If they recruited (and I’m fully operating under that thought) why would they give away some of their numbers advantage right away? On top of that they would chose to give our vigi a stock.
With that said that lowers my suspicion on people who I think would start off the game with a Yomi kill. It could have been an intended yomi kill in which the mafia got lucky, but I’m not entirely buying that idea.