Fuzz. Is what you outlined still viable and is the risk worth it now that Mikasa’s not here anymore?
Depending on the size of the group I really don’t like the Mafia evening up the odds even more than they have already by taking out one of our major power roles.
Size and number of the groups
Well, if I have to speak now… I’ll just copy and paste my explanation:
I did not want to accidentally vote off any of our power roles so I voted for the person I believed was least likely to have a civ roll based on my observations.
The dormants drove my decision. The dormants should know that their purpose is to become mafia so they are likely playing the thread to avoid be too helpful to civs. The fact that none of them stepped forward to prevent mafia from increasing their numbers leads me to believe that they are trying to become mafia. This makes the dynamics of the conversations in the thread difficult to decipher. That coupled with the fact that there are only 3 mafia at this point makes nailing a mafia on day 1 extremely difficult.
One example of the crazy dynamic is PW vs Syn. I think 1 of them is a dormant. If I used code speak I’d say it was Syn since he’s smart enough to know the purpose of the dormants and his way of communicating to the mafia that he’s dormant would be by … being … dormant … at deadline … ie, unavailable to vote.
By the way, I’m selling Jesus Toast 2 for $3 if anyone is interested.
Anyway, the bottom line was that it didn’t feel safe voting for suspected mafia. We would be better off waiting for the mafia to make thier first move and we would use the baited lynch results do day 0 to decide how to structure our expeditions.
I say baited because I personally did not want anyone to get lynched yesterday. Everything that transpired was just for recording data. If we just assume we killed 4 mafia already and their are only 3 left, my decision makes more sense.
If I were Fuzz, expeditions would be my tool for protecting trusted civs and grouping suspects. With the number of non voters, it doesn’t sound bad at all to throw them in to 2 groups of pools with untrusted civs and suspects. The other 2 groups could have 1 ace each or to throw off mafia I’d say exactly that but put all trusted active civs in 1 pool and fill 1 pool with all non voters and top suspects. The other 2 pools could be based purely on reads.
Ideally my first expedition would probably be split like this:
Group 1- Ace 1 and Trusted civs.
Group 2 - Ace 2 and Trusted civs.
Group 3 - Top suspects and Non voters.
Group 4 - Miscellaneous suspects and Non voters
We also have to assume that mafia’s numbers increase by 1 each night that goes by.
*Of course this changes a bit since mafia is making amazing reads on night 1… lol good night.
Order of phases would go Expedition > Day > Night, not Expedition > Night > Day.
-Plan means if Hange dies, Armin dies next.
-Allows us as a conglomerate to pick a target for Armin to investigate.
-Levi dies, plan is no longer viable, Armin becomes useless and should no longer be protected by Hange (allowing Hange to investigate, essentially sacrificing Armin).
-Miss out on 2 Night phase investigations for 1 Expedition investigation.
-Eren dies, investigations are essentially halved (quartered by losing out on 2 night phases), but we get the results immediately. Forced to use lynch vote on successful investigation target.
Not having Armin role-claim:
-Armin and Hange both get to investigate, some results may overlap.
-Eren unable to get guaranteed kill on Titan/Dormant.
-Eren not at risk of being revealed by Armin until Armin’s LG, RadicalFuzz can prevent lynch.
-Armin at risk of being lynched/night killed.
-Armin dies, Levi and Eren still alive, last gasp may reveal one or two Shifters (If we’re lucky. Frequency of Expeditions not ideal.), plan works from there with more efficiency.
Conclusion: Both claiming and not claiming have advantages. Plan is more beneficial than Armin not claiming, but only for the duration that all 3 other roles are alive. Personal decision: Armin claiming is less advantageous than Armin not claiming. Leaving discretion up to RadicalFuzz and group majority. Regardless of decision, Expedition Phase still viable.
Dat’s an og snipe. Somebody is a vet in that bitch.
Anyone could’ve gotten that one if they paid attention to Fuzz tbh.
Oh, and you’ve been awfully silent for someone who almost got Day 1’d. Smash roster make you that sick?
Personal hypothesis: TGG was killed for his post frequency, not for role-hunting.
Holy hell. I’m legit sad right now. -.-
I wanna say that this doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s a vet on the mafia’s team, just that they were going for a vocal player and a civilian asset. I’m not sure what to think, though… I’ll sleep on it.
I’m still wary of expeditions. Alpha’s plan seems alright in most areas, but has a possibility of getting extremely risky.
Fuzz didn’t start the game knowing TGG’s role.
Hmm, well that blows my theory out.
Well that just sucks. So it was probably a lucky snipe on one of the more active new players but is there a tiny chance that what happened in that one arena game may have influensed their kill in some way?
… I guess not and too many of us were in that game to single someone out based on that anyway.
I’m fine with being placed into one of the “suicide” groups if that’s what you want and you feel that I can’t be trusted currently. If mafia don’t feel like killing me then at least lynch me so the vig don’t get locked up for two day and to not have him show up dirty.
Absofuckinglutely, I have been so pissed with the roster that I’ve just been put off with SRK cause of the bullshit that niggas are blissfully accepting in that thread
Fucking Dark pit isn’t a worthy character slot and with Dr.Mario Lucina and Shulk( who is for all intents and purposes a reskinned P:M Roy) that shit just made me burrow my face back into FF14 so I can make the most of my remaining time in this free week.
TGG - gg. Here’s a tidbit for ya - dragon blood does not boil.
So, are we focusing on new suspects (I have a few musings) or are we gonna try to identify “likely” civs?
Thanks for the input Alpha. As far as I’m aware I can begin Expedition at any time during the day phase, so that’s a lot of extra time specifically for discussion. Don’t know why I thought it overrode the day phase. Also since Mikasa is dead we only have one Ace. On the bright side we’re not going to lynch him.
Jason let’s try both. However, I’d like to know what you thought of going on an Expedition today before you talk about suspects or civs. Reason being if we’re not lynching today making a case that someone has been acting dirty will be less effective.
@AlphaCommando perhaps one way to minimize the possible overlap if Armin does not roleclaim would be to have them investigate one half of the player list each. Eg Hange picks someone from Jason (just an example) and above and Armin investigates someone among those that are below Jason?
We are lynching today. And there will be one more night kill.
Well excuse the hell out me.
I would be in favor of expedition. Mindfuck 'em. However you divide the groups, do not provide your personal reasoning behind it. You were too transparent on day 1. Your interaction with skizzz on who was his civ reads basically gave them their kill target last night.
That sounds a bit educated.