Again, set it aside, keep it in the back of your mind, but don’t bother focusing on the Bious thing anymore, it will sort itself out as the game goes on.
I’m just wondering if AC or OZ is a better lynch at this point
*at the earliest.
Alright so I’m with you for now, despite the disagreement on the likelihood of this plan. Follow through, but keep that niggling suspicion in the back of our minds until it needs to be brought back up, if it does.
If we lynch a mafia that happens to be Yasuhiro, then we need to rescrutinize everything Bious said.
OZ is a bad choice, unless he has some ultra Satanic psychic powers.
The Jesus Toast he spread out was too clear not to be Civ, otherwise.
And don’t PM him with Otaku
And don’t gamble on ACs lynch
And don’t do anything else that might backfire if he’s not clean
We have OZ on the list of suspicious-ers now? Kewl. Do we stand to gain anything by keeping Alpha alive over OZ and vice-versa?
Show me something he contributed that makes you say this
Look at his burst of posts, at the end of day one.
Connect the dots.
I dont remember a burst of posts honestly, will have to find the time to go back
Okay, I did. I retract my statement about the SP games regarding you.
There’s a potential scenario that as far as I can tell, hasn’t been considered.
What if both Bious and Pimp Willy are Mafia?
I’m inclined to believe that’s not the case, as Pimp Willy’s been the forerunner on doubting Bious’ claim, but we’re making the assumption that PW is Civ based on the fact that Bious confirmed that his targets were correct. Is it possible he’s trying to flush Asahina out?
Slim chance of this being the case in my opinion, and slimmer chance of PW being Mafia, but we have to consider every possibility in this game.
It has been considered.
A long while back.
At least by me, in my own head.
And summarily dismissed as out of hand.
Its too delicate a thread to hang their hopes on, imo.
I would be OK with one of the wallflowers/non-contributors (e.g., OZ) going today, but I still think AC is #1. PW, your theory definitely is possible. But you’re a computer scientist, right? Or definitely at least someone who knows how to code. So I think you can appreciate that in a game with this many roles and potential actions, the game has a very high number of “states” it could be in (think: finite state machines), and so we could theorize about many, many different states, each with a minute probability of occurrence. The case you’re describing is one of those, and I think it’s quite unlikely. Possible, but not likely.
So thinking in discrete math terms, the “expected value” of lynching AC is pretty high today. Higher than lynching a wallflower, because with lynching a wallflower, we risk losing an important role versus the possibility of bagging a mafia.
Make sense?
The back and fourth isn’t good.
We’re going to end up with random votes if we can’t agree on a route to take.
I respect the conspiracy theory around AC but in my experience I’ve never seen one work out that perfectly.
If we can’t agree to lynch AC, we have the option of cleaning out the wallflowers. The only reason I’d consider them first is because we can actually talk to the people that are putting forward effort to win. We can put then on the stand and review the evidence against them at any time.
We have ridiculous amounts of protection available to us during night phase too.
PW and the Nurse know what to do regarding our active players.
We’ll know for sure who’s telling the truth when we identify the role the flowers are sitting on.
Bottom line we have to get organized and agree on a course of action.
*It’s
I would be infinitely more inclined to go with you, at this point, and will, if the overtly Civ members do.
But I am still waving my “Lynch All Wallflowers” sign over my head.
I just want to remind everyone that if we lynch AC and he ends not being a mafia, i doesn’t necesarily means that bious lied about who is he.
Chief posted my thoughts, even as I was doing so. :tup: :tup:
Dear lord Pee wee Herman is frightening.
I’ve been reconsidering my suspicions and I believe that OZ is the better lynch for today. Our suspicions of Alpha are all based around one fact that Mafia took a specific action. He was Forged last night. It’s unlikely but possible that the Mafia had/has a read on who the UC is and tried to predict their investigation. The case against OZ, however, is based around his own behavior and lack of presence in the thread. I think there’s a good chance they’re both dirty, but something’s been nagging me about Alpha and I want to see if it’ll develop into something or if nothing’ll come of it. If the latter occurs we can just lynch him tomorrow.
Pietastic, I dont really have a list right now its just one person that I find a bit sus
Now, its nothing concrete but something they said just bugged me even tho it was overlooked by the rest and it has something to do with role assignments which is why I dont really want to bring that up right now, so early in the game.
As for Fukawa, it was just a suggestion, I dont really mind if she kills tonight (as long as its not me 
)
Now pretty much everyone has a role in this game and the comment that person made caused me to think that they know something civs dont (but I do…because its my role lol) about mine. It could have been just a mistake so I’m backing off for now
I love you so much right now.
There’s only a couple of lynches I find out be +ev today:
AlphaCommando
orochizoolander
Doofenshmirtz
But I generally agree with you on what the highest +ev move we have is right now.