SRK Mafia X -- Dangan Ronpa: Fire At Will -- END -- Civilians Win

[Hecatom]

That’s interesting, you wouldn’t even consider the other factors such as number of confirmed-role civilians? Previously in the thread when I asked you if you would lynch OZ or myself if we were all in the final 3 you responded by saying you’d analyze the data that had been gathered at that point and gave me basically the same response when I asked you to act as though no new information would appear. But this time you answered me quickly and without asking for clarification on the situation. You’re telling me what I want to hear, not what you’re actually thinking. Congratulations! You are now officially my #1 priority!

@AlphaCommando, @Synonym, @Augustus, @ Combo Knight, Missing Person, and Pimp Willy, what do you guys think of Dark General and his posts?

• If that’s the read you got off me by looking for a confirmation bias, so be it.

Also the question you asked just now was pretty simple. Someone that I knew was civ is enough for me to speak up about and put my neck on the line. Simply put. In contrast the 3 man showdown question that has a different sort of severity to it. That’s the last decision in the game for me to make, period. It’s a win or lose situation with me knowing no strong information.

Remember the part of the question about “knowing what you know now”, I didn’t know anything hence my distrust of both parties and having to use the information to form my answer. But bringing in the element of “A confirmed civ” is completely different element. It’s a strong element in which I’d put my complete faith in.
*

You’re avoiding the point, unless you’re implying that you’d just lazily take the easy way out, which you wouldn’t. In this game having 3 confirmed civilians is worse than having 2. By speaking up for him and saving him from the day lynch you confirm the third civilian and give the Mafia more kills at night (ALL of the confirmed civilians) which you should’ve seen.

Godamn cell that posted it before i was done…
The way that you phrased the question puts him in the position of being one of our detectives, so what if he is for example Byakuya, what if the person that is being at risk of being lynched is the Vigi or the nurse?

[DarkGeneral]

You’re avoiding the point, unless you’re implying that you’d just lazily take the easy way out, which you wouldn’t. In this game having 3 confirmed civilians is worse than having 2. By speaking up for him and saving him from the day lynch you confirm the third civilian and give the Mafia more kills at night (ALL of the confirmed civilians) which you should’ve seen.

• The question appeared to be in a general sense, much like the “glass of wine in front of me”. There was nothing that you stated in the question that pointed to the inquiry being in the context of this game.

I’ll even quote it:

I said this earlier, but who were the main suspects immediately after the night phase ended? From memory it was PW, RF, Doof, CK, OZ & DG. Some of these players seem to have fallen between the cracks once Alpha was implicated. Do we need to revisit our suspicion of them?

Good point.

@orochizoolander do you think Alpha is Mafia or Civilian, assuming that Bious is telling the truth?

@DarkGeneral Let’s say you learned that another player was civilian who was in line to be lynched. How would you respond in the thread?

@AlphaCommando I think I understand what you’re saying. Would you be confident enough in your choice to activate your ability today?

[Synonym]

Also, @RadicalFuzz, thanks for pushing me over the three star threshold!

[RadicalFuzz]

That’s interesting, you wouldn’t even consider the other factors such as number of confirmed-role civilians? Previously in the thread when I asked you if you would lynch OZ or myself if we were all in the final 3 you responded by saying you’d analyze the data that had been gathered at that point and gave me basically the same response when I asked you to act as though no new information would appear. But this time you answered me quickly and without asking for clarification on the situation. You’re telling me what I want to hear, not what you’re actually thinking. Congratulations! You are now officially my #1 priority!

@AlphaCommando, @Synonym, @Augustus, @ Combo Knight, Missing Person, and Pimp Willy, what do you guys think of Dark General and his posts?

• If that’s the read you got off me by looking for a confirmation bias, so be it.

Also the question you asked just now was pretty simple. Someone that I knew was civ is enough for me to speak up about and put my neck on the line. Simply put. In contrast the 3 man showdown question that has a different sort of severity to it. That’s the last decision in the game for me to make, period. It’s a win or lose situation with me knowing no strong information.

Remember the part of the question about “knowing what you know now”, I didn’t know anything hence my distrust of both parties and having to use the information to form my answer. But bringing in the element of “A confirmed civ” is completely different element. It’s a strong element in which I’d put my complete faith in.
*

You’re avoiding the point, unless you’re implying that you’d just lazily take the easy way out, which you wouldn’t. In this game having 3 confirmed civilians is worse than having 2. By speaking up for him and saving him from the day lynch you confirm the third civilian and give the Mafia more kills at night (ALL of the confirmed civilians) which you should’ve seen.

Godamn cell that posted it before i was done…
The way that you phrased the question puts him in the position of being one of our detectives, so what if he is for example Byakuya, what if the person that is being at risk of being lynched is the Vigi or the nurse?

Or interacting/being Yamada, the Otaku. Either way, saving them from the lynch by telling everyone their role will only serve to get them, and more roles, killed further down the line.

You’re avoiding the point, unless you’re implying that you’d just lazily take the easy way out, which you wouldn’t. In this game having 3 confirmed civilians is worse than having 2. By speaking up for him and saving him from the day lynch you confirm the third civilian and give the Mafia more kills at night (ALL of the confirmed civilians) which you should’ve seen.

• The question appeared to be in a general sense, much like the “glass of wine in front of me”. There was nothing that you stated in the question that pointed to the inquiry being in the context of this game.

I’ll even quote it:

I said this earlier, but who were the main suspects immediately after the night phase ended? From memory it was PW, RF, Doof, CK, OZ & DG. Some of these players seem to have fallen between the cracks once Alpha was implicated. Do we need to revisit our suspicion of them?

Good point.

@orochizoolander do you think Alpha is Mafia or Civilian, assuming that Bious is telling the truth?

@DarkGeneral Let’s say you learned that another player was civilian who was in line to be lynched. How would you respond in the thread?

@AlphaCommando I think I understand what you’re saying. Would you be confident enough in your choice to activate your ability today?

Really? That’s the best defense you could come up with? That’s like responding to “Do you think RadicalFuzz is Mafia?” with “In which game?”

[DarkGeneral]

I’m not sure. I’ve been focusing more on looking for role interplay in the thread then I have on actual player contributions. I was confused by some of his role hunting questions but overall I don’t remember seeing anything too fishy. The only thing of note is that I remember him being a lot more insightful in the TF2 game. However, probably like myself, being new in a game this busy, convoluted and stacked with experienced players makes it difficult to have a voice.

If you’re saying what I think you’re saying then PW might become your new best friend.

• The bolded part is EXACTLY how I feel. Not only is there more players (over double) there’s also a bajillion more roles. I literally went from playing my first game with 11 people and 4 roles to a game with 23 people and roughly 38 different role possibilities. Some of the thoughts or theories I have get brought up by other people first. Then you have the other things I never thought about being brought up, then you have the smorgesboard that is the different role possibilities. *

[Hecatom]

That’s interesting, you wouldn’t even consider the other factors such as number of confirmed-role civilians? Previously in the thread when I asked you if you would lynch OZ or myself if we were all in the final 3 you responded by saying you’d analyze the data that had been gathered at that point and gave me basically the same response when I asked you to act as though no new information would appear. But this time you answered me quickly and without asking for clarification on the situation. You’re telling me what I want to hear, not what you’re actually thinking. Congratulations! You are now officially my #1 priority!

@AlphaCommando, @Synonym, @Augustus, @ Combo Knight, Missing Person, and Pimp Willy, what do you guys think of Dark General and his posts?

• If that’s the read you got off me by looking for a confirmation bias, so be it.

Also the question you asked just now was pretty simple. Someone that I knew was civ is enough for me to speak up about and put my neck on the line. Simply put. In contrast the 3 man showdown question that has a different sort of severity to it. That’s the last decision in the game for me to make, period. It’s a win or lose situation with me knowing no strong information.

Remember the part of the question about “knowing what you know now”, I didn’t know anything hence my distrust of both parties and having to use the information to form my answer. But bringing in the element of “A confirmed civ” is completely different element. It’s a strong element in which I’d put my complete faith in.
*

You’re avoiding the point, unless you’re implying that you’d just lazily take the easy way out, which you wouldn’t. In this game having 3 confirmed civilians is worse than having 2. By speaking up for him and saving him from the day lynch you confirm the third civilian and give the Mafia more kills at night (ALL of the confirmed civilians) which you should’ve seen.

Godamn cell that posted it before i was done…
The way that you phrased the question puts him in the position of being one of our detectives, so what if he is for example Byakuya, what if the person that is being at risk of being lynched is the Vigi or the nurse?

Or interacting/being Yamada, the Otaku. Either way, saving them from the lynch by telling everyone their role will only serve to get them, and more roles, killed further down the line.

You’re avoiding the point, unless you’re implying that you’d just lazily take the easy way out, which you wouldn’t. In this game having 3 confirmed civilians is worse than having 2. By speaking up for him and saving him from the day lynch you confirm the third civilian and give the Mafia more kills at night (ALL of the confirmed civilians) which you should’ve seen.

• The question appeared to be in a general sense, much like the “glass of wine in front of me”. There was nothing that you stated in the question that pointed to the inquiry being in the context of this game.

I’ll even quote it:

I said this earlier, but who were the main suspects immediately after the night phase ended? From memory it was PW, RF, Doof, CK, OZ & DG. Some of these players seem to have fallen between the cracks once Alpha was implicated. Do we need to revisit our suspicion of them?

Good point.

@orochizoolander do you think Alpha is Mafia or Civilian, assuming that Bious is telling the truth?

@DarkGeneral Let’s say you learned that another player was civilian who was in line to be lynched. How would you respond in the thread?

@AlphaCommando I think I understand what you’re saying. Would you be confident enough in your choice to activate your ability today?

Really? That’s the best defense you could come up with? That’s like responding to “Do you think RadicalFuzz is Mafia?” with “In which game?”

Add the Paparazzi, also his response in no way implied that he revealed his role or the role of the fellow civ to save him, he simply said that he will take up for him, meaning that he can simply mean that he will voice discomfort with the decision, or try to push other suspect with evidence, there are more ways to stand for other player than revealing the roles.

[DarkGeneral]

Really? That’s the best defense you could come up with? That’s like responding to “Do you think RadicalFuzz is Mafia?” with “In which game?”

*Yup, that’s all I really have to say. I literally thought it was a general question and not tethered to this game. *

[RadicalFuzz]

Whatever, it’s late, I’m tired, and I’m hitting the sack for tonight. I’ll restate my argument in the morning.

[Augustus]

… @Augustus … what do you guys think of Dark General and his posts?

I haven’t been thinking much of them. Like I said, there are too many players to keep track of and I have a tendency to ignore some of them when I’m set on someone else. Right now I’m set on lynching Alpha and looking pietastic’s way. But I’ve gone through his posts and I’m not seeing what you’re seeing. To be honest, I find you more suspicious than him, lol.

I kind of want Syo to take a chance and kill Doofenshmirtz or orochizoolander. Maybe Cyntalan if he’s not buying his claim that he has an important/semi-important role. I mean, you’re setting up for Mafia to kill you by saying that. Or are you looking for the Medic’s protection?.. I dunno.

[DarkGeneral]

Whatever, it’s late, I’m tired, and I’m hitting the sack for tonight. I’ll restate my argument in the morning.

• I’ll try and make it in the morning but I’ve been doing terrible with my time management since I’ve got involved playing these mafia games. They’re just too fun. I’ll be on for sure tomorrow night though. 8pm eastern roughly. *

[Combo_Knight]

@RadicalFuzz

In regards to general? I believe he is of the mafia ilk.

His defacing of me and his vote to have me lynch came conviently after one of my previous accusations AC, which we now believe is mafia.

Everything is post count numbers, and statsheets with this one, with the occasional “these people do this” routine

pretty much the ideal faceless contribution of a mafia role, you give just enough not to be considered a psychopath.

[infrequent_lurker]

The RE game was my first game.
Aside from me, it’s Synonym, Augustus and Sumazndude.

Interesting.

Synonym is/has doubted the validity of Bious claim that he is Yasuhiro which is understandable. This is a game of deception after all. Plus Touko’s ability allows her to do a false roll claim. My question is why would mafia sacrifice her so early? Wouldn’t it be better to use this skill later in the game? Especially if the the score was something like 7C-3M. Hell look at all of the confusion it’s causing at the moment. Sacrificing her after one day seems rash. What point would it serve? To take some heat off of Pimp Willy? I’m sure he could do that on his own. Plus if the real Yasuhiro is killed then all of his credibility would go out of the window. That is unless…Yasu was recruited by the mafia as well. Still with this development happening after the first night I more inclined to think that Bious is who he says he is.

If BTier hadn’t been replaced would things be playing out the way they are now? Would the mafia have chosen a different target?

[Mobius]

The RE game was my first game.
Aside from me, it’s Synonym, Augustus and Sumazndude.

Interesting.

Synonym is/has doubted the validity of Bious claim that he is Yasuhiro which is understandable. This is a game of deception after all. Plus Touko’s ability allows her to do a false roll claim. My question is why would mafia sacrifice her so early? Wouldn’t it be better to use this skill later in the game? Especially if the the score was something like 7C-3M. Hell look at all of the confusion it’s causing at the moment. Sacrificing her after one day seems rash. What point would it serve? To take some heat off of Pimp Willy? I’m sure he could do that on his own. Plus if the real Yasuhiro is killed then all of his credibility would go out of the window. That is unless…Yasu was recruited by the mafia as well. Still with this development happening after the first night I more inclined to think that Bious is who he says he is.

If BTier hadn’t been replaced would things be playing out the way they are now? Would the mafia have chosen a different target?

Great points, I lean towards Bious being a civilian and Yasuhiro.
However, I won’t claim that I’m 99.99% certain, it’s 67% percent at best.
The only way I’ll be 100% certain is if there are no counterclaims and if Touka role claims.
These would remove the possibility of Bious being Touka who is role-claiming Yasuhiro.
And if we lynch the person who role-claimed Touka and she comes up as Touka, then we would have nothing to worry about false death role reveals on future phases.

Bious was revealed as a civilian on his death, so him being Yasuhiro/Mafia is not possible, while him being Touka/Mafia is still possible.

But since that confirmation needs at the very least 1 role and 2 roles at most to role-claim, I’ll rather seek a different approach.

So in the end, until none of the confirmations I’ve mentioned happens, I’ll be tackling this game with Bious being Yasuhiro/Civilian in my mindset.

My question is why would mafia sacrifice her so early? Wouldn’t it be better to use this skill later in the game? Especially if the the score was something like 7C-3M.

And now that I think about it, Bious claims that Togami’s kill switch was not activated last night. Though I’m inclined to believe him as I mentioned beforehand, the possibility that it had been activated and the switch led to the mafia killing of their own is there, which may mean that Touka was not necessarily sacrificed but instead killed by Syo.

Likewise, this confirmation needs a role-claim so I’ll rather seek an approach that doesn’t involve it. And frankly, our Vigilante hitting a Mafia on night 1 seems statistically unlikely. Although shooting Bulldancer, a role claimant, made sense.
Likewise, the mafia killing a role claimant that isn’t affected by the triple kill makes sense as well.

What point would it serve? To take some heat off of Pimp Willy? I’m sure he could do that on his own.

I agree, Pimp Willy is cunning enough to deflect suspicions away from himself, so the mafia killing off one of their own member to exonerate him is quite an overkill. If Pimp Willy is mafia, then I’m quite certain he could think of a better use for Touka’s ability.
On the other hand, if Bious is Touka/Mafia, then he might have just exonerated Pimp Willy by confirming the people he had protected. This may be a subtle hint that the two are in cahoots or the mafia may simply have preempted this possibility and is incriminating Pimp Willy.
And in another perspective, Touka/Mafia was simply bluffing on his own when he confirmed the two protection targets and Pimp Willy had nothing to do with such conspiracies.

[Missing_Person]

Everyone saying bious had an important role which is why he was switched in and a replacement always means that is touting bullshit.

I replaced orochi and The Faggot in SP and they were both roleless.

I never said it always meant that.

I offered a reason for the Mafia’s actions.

Provided the roles weren’t reversed.

Which I do not think happened.

Yeah, you did.

It has been my observation, across the games that I have played, and watched, that when people are replaced, it is due to their having had a vital role to one side or the other.

Now, I know you were watching the South Park game as of day 1.

I replaced orochi with The Co-Jones on day 1. I replaced The Faggot with Exodus. on night 2.

Both of those replacements, I know you saw. One resulted in the death of a roleless civ. One resulted in a roleless civ being alive at the end of the game.

So either your recollection is faulty, your observation is faulty, or you’re just being full of shit right now.

[Missing_Person]

Regardless of me calling out Azure on bullshit, I have a good feeling I know who he is based on one thing only.

Lynch AlphaCommando

I will know a lot more if I see Alpha brought out of here in a civ-made casket.

[Missing_Person]

Personally, I don’t think Bious is fabricating here.

I think there’s a much better time and place to use that ability if they have it.

Plus, I think there would’ve been something more interesting happen if Bious was faking it.

If he DOES end up being a fabricated role, then I rescind my suspension of suspicion against PW, because he would be crafty enough to make this play. But the possibility of this being the case is scant, IMO.

[orochizoolander]

I’ve been thinking MP and whatever roles are co firmed civs should work together somehow, obviously without exposing themselves.

[Sumazndude]

No, it absolutely guarantees it.

The Nurse cannot protect unless the Medic already has, or is Mafia.

Since the Nurse protected day one, that means the Medic is Mafia.

Ahh. In that case Nurse, never role claim. The mafia could potentially use the switch-a-roo power with Syo and bypass PW’s protection on you.

Like Alpha was fatkid is some strange possibility on the other side. He contacted a Mafia, they know who he is now and forged him wasting that skill for the night?

-in all this looking into “how else besides if he was Mafia would he have a reason to be forged?”

• pure randomly being forged or Mafia knowing he has a role that’s not just a Mafia teammate are the others.

So wait, are we thinking that Alpha is the Forger, the Otaku or some other role?

Personally I argued that it could have been mafia framing up a known outspoken player. Alpha hasn’t been as prolific as say PW, RF, MP in this thread but he has been contributing a lot more than others. If they framed him it would be plausible for people on both ends of the posting spectrum to believe that he was mafia. Being the Otaku he would have to have been really unlucky to have chosen a player who was mafia to have a conversation with. Personally, I’d use the role to get assigned a random juror so that I’d be guaranteed an ally in the thread.

probably Fukawa to throw off Syo’s credibility

Are you saying that I’m Fukawa Mafia and they tried to change my innocent result to guilty, or are you saying that I’m Fukawa Civ and they knew my role?

no, I think I put up the wrong quote… I’m not saying you are Fukawa, I was saying who the 4th person on my mafia team would be if I were val, sorry if that was misleading

[Doofenshmirtz]

I kind of dont really get the whole “mafia must be amongst the wallflowers”, i mean iirc, in past games they’ve been a lot more successful when they actively post and somewhat “help” the civs.
Seeing as it is day 2 Augustus I disagree with your suggestion, not only because im one of the suggestions but also because its day 2, does a low post count really say much? Im posting when I can and like I said before im on holidays so there will be days where I might not post at all but I am making the time to play tho so dont worry
Also… its day 2, early vigi kills never end well and if they follow your instructions I bet it wont end well in this game either so Genocider, please kick back for now

[pietastic]

I kind of dont really get the whole “mafia must be amongst the wallflowers”, i mean iirc, in past games they’ve been a lot more successful when they actively post and somewhat “help” the civs.
Seeing as it is day 2 Augustus I disagree with your suggestion, not only because im one of the suggestions but also because its day 2, does a low post count really say much? Im posting when I can and like I said before im on holidays so there will be days where I might not post at all but I am making the time to play tho so dont worry
Also… its day 2, early vigi kills never end well and if they follow your instructions I bet it wont end well in this game either so Genocider, please kick back for now

Lynching wallflowers serves two purposes: flushing out mafia, and sending a strong wakeup call to those wallflowers… contribute something meaningful, or you’ll get lynched. I personally find it to be a good strategy overall.