Yup.
It would have just stopped Mafia (And everyone else with Active roles). Togami would still be able to get his role.
Here’s that list cleaned up…
Players that have voted majority every day phase: (I suspect 1-2 mafia)
Azure (Confirmed Civ)
Cyntalan
ForgeDigger (Whom I keep forgetting is even playing the game, he’s quiet for even Forge.)
infrequent lurker
pietastic
Pimp Willy (Confirmed civ)
The Chief
Players that have voted majority two day phases, one of which being Alpha: (I suspect 1 mafia)
DarkGeneral
Hecatom
Mobius
Players that have voted majority both times that civs were lynched, never voted majority, or only voted for AC (I suspect 1 mafia):
Synonym
RadicalFuzz
WTF-AKUMA-HAX
Augustus
[/quote]
What’s wrong with talking about the extreme, theoretical plan of worst case scenario with vets working together at their strongest on a possible mafia team?
you said the same, when you were including me in a “group of 3-4” that “things line up now with mafia having veterans.”
Even if its unlikely, Pimp Willy still talked out the whole Kill Switch and Death + even Sacrifice angle. That’s what I’m saying about all of this, I know its unlikely which is why the last time this was detailed, it was done very quickly and not with every possibility, but I believe the evidence is there. Lets look at it, in a better, easier way all laid out:
Mafia knew Syo
Mafia can claim Vigi (Mafia + 1 Civ knows syo) and Paparazzi (nobody knows her)
Mafia can claim Togami (nobody knows him, or if he's civ)
No, there wasn’t a 2nd Syo roleclaim. why would there be one after everyone was fully ready to believe the first one?
Again its just the alternate theory of events, not having a 2nd Syo roleclaim is still no final proof of anything on the real Syo.
Syo really doesn’t want to come out with a roleclaim when few protections are left. That would be Very Dangerous as the 2nd Role claim of Syo will just be taken out.
Why would they put the target on their own back, for both the target of the Mafia kill and even a Lynch instead when Mafia doesn’t have to show their hand in killing the 2nd Vigilante roleclaim that could very well be real. They can leave that to the Vigilante.
Real Syo has that option too, taking out a role claim by a fake syo, one of the checks that prevents a 2nd role claim in the way that gets lots of trust.
Very few roles have checks to find out the 100% truth. Investigator can only, unluckily find a Mafia and is even disadvantaged with Forger still Alive out there on there Team in case you forgot.
In this alternate theory of the events: Real Vigi Syo can’t target Azure this whole time he’s protected. He can’t check him. He can’t dispute his claims of kill targets. That is also dangerous and ends up being a role claim.
Talking that obvious part out to no end and repeating myself a little is going to be spoiler boxed for space
Spoiler
Why would Mafia roleclaim vigilante?
If they can get away with it, when its a calculated risk with a big upside worthy of taking that risk.
If they have helpful roles that combine for such a plan, like Togami which the Civilians cannot dispute, or it would be risky to claim to be the real Togami in regards to how he works with Vigilante. Doing it first was a real chess move. Getting protection from being killed by Medics/Fighter from the actual Vigilante and end up having everyone find out the truth was important. Unluckily, the civilian team gave up protection targets (for their own reasons & plans) early in order to help that plan work very well and be covered on many angles. Hecatom may not have been covered a lot, is the only part of this I’m seeing, even after his role claim since Vigi remains pretty important to the Civs and Hecatom’s role he claimed was not as important at the time, with only like 1 night phase since his claim.
Azure has tied up the Protection role at least twice, Mafia can really use the facts that he is protected, where a different possible real Syo can’t kill him to learn the truth. It doesn’t only have to be Mafia wasting their kill on Azure’s Vigilante Roleclaim. They would go for a better target than someone that is protected afterall, the mixup put in place so they won’t waste their Night Kill action.
but if Azure:Vigilante is instead not civilian Vigi (who is always Civ),
but instead a non-Vigilante Mafia? (with the fake claim brokenly tying up the real Vigilante for many phases)
Everyone has fucked up then with the trust placed in the wrong players and their role claims. Thinking of how this Mafia game can be “broken” was not looked at and a lot of this lines up for “Broken Offense,” vs Pimp Willy’s now taken down-“Broken Defense” through almost no fault of his own.
Mafia are going to want Hecatom and Azure around as long as possible. They’re not going to kill them and give the town real information. We are definitely not going to lynch them after the trust they have earned, even with a passive unproven ability, the action for Togami, that wasn’t shown on Bious’ ESP radar. Of course Paparazzi was shown, but Bious also didn’t know if Vigi was a role on their own to begin with and didn’t look out for that. Mafia may have benefited from that too. Who can counter that paparazzi claim?
An easy, good and ready way to check for these ends is some more solid evidence. We need more evidence anyway without the reasons I want it:
What was Azure’s Night 2 Target to follow?
What was Hecatom’s other learned Roles during night phase?
I do agree, as it already said before me, that it will be bad for real Togami to die for his claim, but having any info to cross examine is really important to show people are exactly who they say they are. Mafia can kill Togami and Vigilante soon. I think the urgency is already here to know these things to really help the civilian team turn this around.
All of this won’t be 100% right in every way, of course, but there are some new possibilities in this post that can be working out there that have not been thoroughly looked at with how the role dynamics work together. I don’t think it to be wise to leave these “stones unturned.” Especially the side of supporting the Alpha Commando Valedictorian with strong roles, after seeing if you also notice like I did, the last person to bring this up, was Doof, right before he died, maybe even for saying it again.
Civilian Skills that find roles seem to have been all taken away from our team. Such as the confirmed major one in Sayaka who is a “Forger” instead. Knowing the vigi for the Civilian version of the Togami role, doesn’t mean knowing the second role the Vigi also started with. While that is being claimed, the real Vigi and a possible real role of Paparazzi can very well turn into wallflowers that damn well will not role claim who they are so they don’t get run out of the game for going against the fully established trust and info we all mutually believed going forward without a second thought, opinion, or look to be completely sure.
I’m not completely sure about Azure.
Way worse than me being a Mafia on the old tired angle of “I can’t understand him” placed upon me every now and again.
As an aside: Nowadays that is just for quickly breaking-the-ice jokes since it has been said plenty enough so far in every successive game and isn’t new and exciting with your own personal spin on it or real honest thoughts thinking that through and noticing I helped a ton in TF2:Blue
I would be very scared of a Mafia Azure in line with a Mafia Pimp Willy who was seen in other games, the example talked about again in this very game thread based on his PHX Wright game and the deception of real “wool pulled over everyone’s eyes” taking full advantage of the Sovi3t bow out. That was an entire plan laid out that people could not find any problem or poke a hole in. That was a solid Mafia gameplay move.
You guys have to at least respect me telling you exactly what I’m thinking, no matter if its a big text wall. I do play and speak honestly and completely failed to mention that in this game among everything else I believe makes up my playing style. The style of game with so many roles in it has not helped me think this all out very well. I’m sure I’m not the only one even if you don’t want to openly share that sentiment and be called weak for it, when it is very reasonable to think this way. Luckily for the group, I don’t hold up an entire jury here by being the dissident outlaw voter. So there’s no reason like the whole vote is deadlocked if I don’t agree and I’m holding this all up for selfish reasons, by not just agreeing with the group.
HAX, if Azure is being protected by PW, then the real Syo (in the unlikely event it’s not Azure) CAN target him. Oogami only protects from mafia kills.
Intriguing.
On my “indecisiveness”: again, this is consistent with just what I do in these games. I try to analyze things by presenting information and evidence first, so we as a group can start by interpreting the data before us, and then proceed by deciding whom to lynch. This is the same difference between intelligence and operations, to put things in a military context. Honestly I think this game has been marked by rushes to judgment which has hurt us in our lynching strategy. I’m not comfortable participating in that and starting ill-informed lynch wagons just to deflect suspicion off of me. If I’m indecisive, call me Hamlet if you want. He dies in the end of his play, but it is titled after him.
On me advocating the Vigi kill at all times: I was surprised to see this from you. There’s a two-fold argument here. I find these following principles to be true of almost all mafia games:
- We shouldn’t think that our reads are that good, so we shouldn’t deviate from the statistically optimal approach except in special cases. We should always use the tools available to us to get rid of mafia. That includes lynching (I would almost never go for a no lynch, except for edge cases that experienced players know about), and vigi-killing. If not, we leave the opportunity to kill mafia on the table, which is not the right way to go. We can work through the math if you want, but I don’t think this is wrong.
- When we take those kill opportunities, we have to do so based on the best information we have at that time. Research is better than hunches, no matter how good you think your hunches are.
Read your analysis back again. You will find my actions to be consistent with those principles. Azure should be killing each night, since it’s statistically the best way to go. But, as we do so, we need to back our assertions with research (which you’re currently doing).
Keep it coming. Who else’s opinion do you want on your interpretations? Put somebody on the spot to contribute. I can’t pick since I’m on the stand right now.
HAX couldn’t be more incorrect if he had a back-alley corner drug prescription.
The bullshit overflows.
I reiterate: he is either 3rd party, or very badly played Mafia.
While MP is busy installing the Sword of Damocles above my head, I’ve also done as promised and gone into depth on someone: Cyntalan. He’s stuck out to me as someone who’s flown under the radar, and warrants further investigation. I’m going to do this in a series of posts, as I want to remain under the character limit. The posts will be split by subject.
I’ll start by going into Cyntalan’s role claiming. Reading this all back makes me really interested to know which role Cynt actually has. He started by saying that civs would make a mistake by lynching him, but later, he keeps heat low by explicitly saying it’s not important. I bet it’s actually an important mafia one… Also noteworthy in that he snipes back and forth and tries to load suspicion onto C_K. I’ll get into his digs on people in the next post.
(Note that the quotes are in reverse chronological order.)
Spoiler
So that was way more than needed of course. I reworded some of it a bit for quicker consumption here.
Here’s another big plan. do consider the good vs saying all the bad you want to say against it as a first response to even hearing it. There’s a lot to gain here, and going towards more trust and proof cannot be bad. This is not only for Azure to consider and tell me its a bad idea from his perspective, more than one opinion can chime in even if they aren’t the Vigi, since that leaves him to be a dangerous lone wolf we have zero control of to guide with good advice. While we don’t need a lot of control of that role like we own him, we can work on the same page so to speak:
What can we do?
Get Azure & Hecatom to talk more. As well as having Azure the Vigilante prove himself without a doubt by targeting at least someone we all want killed, not just his own group of targets.
Rather than business as usual (even with the protections) when he did not talk about a good target, go right into the night phase without helping the cause, and fully claim responsibility for that kill when needed without a second guess by anybody. Even Hecatom who knows about being a bad Vigilante and was told about all that again in this game how he was very bad in the game he was a Vigilante. So he should definitely want to get the Vigilante on the right track to win.
We don’t have much time left to even have a Vigilante do we? His shots are running out.
If he refuses to cooperate, Oogami should not protect him one night and see how that shakes out if a real Vigilante is waiting in the wings for his one chance.
Of course again, how are we going to find all the Mafia we’re really looking for with urgency by just throwing around near baseless suspicions that anybody can do, when we will almost always react to that being a civ with a role we think is important and know those accusations are way off and not true, and a lot of us can talk our way out of these so quickly. We’re running around in circles while the Mafia directs us through gates, a lot like infrequent saying I’m a Lemming running off a cliff. But nobody does that on their own. They are led that way.
Bonus thought, even obvious: Gambler seems like a passive or at least hidden skill and a 1 shot? We never see that in a writeup, if it gets wasted?
Due to how strong it is for the Civs. finally something strong for civs “these days,” among all this Mafia role synergy, even if it needs to be exactly right.
Cyntalan going in on people: he’s gone in on CK and OZ, and not just as a complete bandwagoner. He simply went with the flow on MP. His initial suspicion day 1 was CK, when CK did hardcore sketchy stuff in the beginning. Evidence below.
Spoiler
His role analysis and theory fighting. Honestly, it doesn’t tell me all that much about him. I actually agree with most of his assessments about which remaining roles are likely to be mafia.
Spoiler
[quote=“Cyntalan, post:1972, topic:164690”]
I want @Hecatom, @ForgeDigger, @Synonym PW, @Azure, @Augustus, and @RadicalFuzz to chime in on my suspicions of pietastic. Every single one of them.
Just noting this one for completeness, lest you think I’m cherry picking posts:
Spoiler
And WTF-AKUMA-HAX
For the record, my top three suspect list now stands at:
HAX
Cyntalan
Mobius
*I have stated previously I’m willing to go to the gallows this day phase. Specially if we can get valuable leads/information out of my death. At the very least I, a controversial figure will be out of the running of possible mafia. Have I been more helpful than harmful, I think I have but for now I resign my fate to the thread and our confirmed or nearly confirmed civs.
Did by any chance you find my allegiance last night or today? A simple “yes” or “no” will suffice.*
I do think you could end up doing the following:
Have one mafia that I listed agree with me, the other disagree.
If there’s another, he may not be on my list.
**Role, not allegiance. *