Can anybody teach me how to interpret the “betting odds” associated with stuff like this?
I never got the + or - thing.
if you’re playing a game that has negative expected value martingale will just get you broke faster
if you lose $5 for every $100 bet with martingale you’re just betting more in the long run than flat betting so you’ll lose more
if you know your edge then just use kelly criterion to find optimal stake for growth
Tonight I like Nevada-10, bought half the point. Other than that … Yeah, I’m with you on Wisconsin.
Rsigley, where the fuck have you been =(.
For American odds you’ll see the + and - in two places.
The first is the points line:
If I say Wisconsin is +16 that means Ohio State is -16. Ohio State is favored to win by 16 points. If I bet on Wisconsin, I basically get 16 free points. If they end up losing by 8, I win (by 8). If you bet on Ohio State, then you need them to win by 17 points to get your winnings. Anything less and it’s a loss.
In a single game line bet a draw will just give your money back (Ohio State wins by 16, it’s a draw).
The other place you’ll see it is a money line.
You place a moneyline bet for a team to win straight up.
So if a team is -160 that’s how much you have to stake for your winnings to be $100.
If a team is +160, that’s how much you’ll win in addition to your stake if you bet $100.
*You will also see stuff like -105 associated with your point spread bets. But that’s because the house is just taking a small amount off the top of every bet.
Make sense?
A little bit, but I guess I should read up on it more. I get the basics, but than again I’m sure it’s more complicated.
Yeah, that’s the basics.
If you go to bodog.com there is a good help section outlining every type of bet and wager.
Its called Asian Handicapping over here, but I never touch it for football (soccer) myself.
All internationals this week which I am not going near with a bargepole. Very little value to be found and lots accumulator busting possibilities out there.
Although, I am tempted to lay Brazil in Bolivia due to the altitude which seems to ruin everyone.
Rsigley- its been well over 2 years since I gambled properly. Only just started again this season. Kelly does sound familiar, so will have a read up. Half the time I only seem to gamble cos I like making excel spreadsheets.
Having had a quick scan over Kelly Criterion, couple of points.
-
A lot of people point out that its no good for multiple bets running at the same time (but then again Martingale is no better for this)
-
Edge is so long winded to work out, not to mention the real world of football is so unpredictable. I tend to avoid the first 6 games of the season, but everyone and their dog thought that Arsenal Everton on opening day was under 2.5, let alone under 6.5.
Im going to be blindly betting on around 15 games a week and following a system, so using personal subjective opinion to consider edge is contrary to that I feel.
Im not gonna go into detail about what I am betting on without getting some more results, but will happily post up successes and failures when I have at least a solid month of stats (bloody internationals ruining my fun).
I didnt get where I am today by selling dodgy martingale systems [/perrin]
honestly i have no idea what you’re talking about (prob bcuz i’m on soju bottle #2), first you were talking about roulette and then horse races…and now football (i think). i DO know that martingale is bullshit though and it was named randomly by some french degenerate gamblers not anybody that broke a casino.
yeah, American point lines aren’t great for soccer. The moneylines work pretty much the same way, they’re just not in decimal, but the line is still the same.
The only internationals worth touching are the ones that really decide who qualifies. Especially in the mid tier teams.
And I would take Brazil over Bolvia if they were playing on the moon, it won’t be close.
W- Nevada -10 1018 - 815
W- Nevada UNDER 57 466 - 424
W- Angels -115 800 - 695
W- Indiana +.5 2H 500 - 454
W- Yankees Under 9.5 700 - 636
W- Yankees Under 5.5 First 5 - 800 - 666
W- Indiana / Phoenix O88.5 1h 500 - 454
L- Yankees -1.5 500 - 357
L - Indiana +5 500 - 454
My Friday went pretty good… My college games, not so good. Looking HORRIBLE so far.
Fucking Purdue up 10-0 … Fumbles / INTs … now the score is 35-13.
Auburn got shitted on after I listened to someone who didn’t know shit about betting, I WANTED Arkansas but I fucking looked the other way. Another fucking rookie mistake.
Michigan St. is looking pretty OK.
And Syracuse… Of course fumbles / int every fucking play. Jesus christ. Never trust a team again. Mississippi St. is looking good though.
Looks like a 2-3 morning game for me… Could even go 1-4…
Damn, nice work on baseball though. I stay away from baseball. It’s good sometimes, but you can go on some bad streaks. It’s so damn random.
First round of the playoffs is good though because you almost always know who is winning the series before they start.
I won on Minnesota, West Virginia, Tennessee,and Michigan State so far.
Boston College and Auburn fucked me over on a parlay that would have paid big, that pissed me off.
And sorry, but taking Syracuse is terrible, lol. Not that I should speak because I took Northwestern to cover 17 which might be even worse.
Still looking to the Wisconsin Ohio State game to pay big, put 100 on that.
Another tip, Indiana. Bet it. You get +7 for a team that should be 4-1 with a win over Michigan against a Virginia team who has only beat UNC.
double edit this ^^^ was a bad idea, lol
I was using roulette to explain martingale as its the easiest explanation. Im applying martingale to football (soccer) outcomes where the odds are far higher than evens.
A friend of mine did an 8 team accumulator over the weekend. All came in, until the last game on the coupon. Ukraine v England. Accumulator discombobulated. Was odds of 425- 1 for all teams.
Its bad enough when one team lets you down, but when its one playing after all the others have finished. Just another reason to hate Cole and Ferdinand I spose.
Bolivia won 2-1 against Brazil I believe (and shock horror I didnt put any money on it bah!). Doesnt seem to be on any of the major sports sites which is strange.
Tip of the day:
If you have the chance to lay money on Marn over West Coast bet that shit. :wow:
Easy money tonight on Rutgers so far. Hopefully they keep it up.
Haven’t even looked at tomorrow’s lines yet, took last week off for SBIV.
I should listen to Sportsguy. I will never bet on Jake Delhomme ever again.
lol bill simmons doesn’t even listen to himself
hey bumping this thread . any one from the UK ? soccer betting ?
i don’t mind basketball bet
I had Torres first scorer on sun and 'Pool 2-1 at 40-1. Talk about value.
Talk about discombobulated! Bah!
at this stage of the season, its very tricky to start betting. I usually avoid the first 5 and last 5 games of a season, simply because form goes out of the window due to too many external factors.
In other news, Im thinking of trading Denmark to win the world cup. currently at 60s or something silly. Had an awesome qualifying group and should get through their WC group fairly easily and shorten up the price. Just dont know if I can be bothered to tie my money up for so long.
Oh and England at 5s for the WC? Again a definate lay, as long as you dont mind tying your money up for a while. It is serious value though.