URIEN vs. ALEX
I think this match up depends on how Urien decides to play. If Urien decides to turtle, then it’s in his favor. Here’s why.
In most of Alex’s matchups, he can play a decent footsies game with st. forward and cr. strong. In this case, Urien totally outranges him on almost every move. What does this mean? It means that if Urien decides to sit back and build meter via st. strong/st. fierce/cr. forward and so on, there’s not much Alex can do.
Alex has to rely on randomness i.e. random EX Slash Elbow, random head stomps, etc. Normally, this would work against most other characters but again, Urien’s got that reach thing going. When fully extended, Urien’s st. strong/cr. forward beats EX elbow clean.
Once Alex does score that knockdown, Urien can be random himself and wake up with EX headbutt. Urien then runs away again, and repeat.
So what if some of Urien’s Aegis combos won’t work on Alex? He can safely build meter and keep doing it.
If Urien doesn’t turtle and decides to move forward every now and then, Alex has a better chance. I think this match up is in Urien’s favor if he decides to turtle. The outcome depends on how well Alex can get in, and STAY in.
MAKOTO vs. CHUN LI
Chun Li can straight up own Makoto. Once Chun Li has one level of super going, Makoto’s options for getting in are severely limited. Chun Li can turtle all day and space herself outside Makoto’s dash throw range, or she can go on the offensive and attack with her MANY ways to connect SA2. Since Makoto lacks a good wake up move outside supers, Chun Li CAN rush Makoto down. High low mixups combined with an awesome kara-throw can wreak total havoc.
However, this is Makoto we’re talking about. How well she does in the first round (beating Chun Li quickly, denying her super bar) usually dictates the match. Similarly, Chun Li’s wake up moves are lacking outside EX bird kick. If Chun Li is being rushed down, I doubt she’ll want to waste meter going for EX bird kick. This opens up a world of hurt, and allows Makoto to work her magic.
If Chun Li can get meter, this match is in her favor. If Makoto can get going, Makoto has the upper hand.
MAKOTO vs. KEN
This match is similar to Makoto vs. Chun Li, but more in Ken’s favor. Ken has a powerful footsies game, so Makoto’s usually method of dashing into command grab won’t work as well. As with pretty much all of Makoto’s match ups, once she gets going, she’s hard to stop.
Maybe Tuan can elaborate more then I can.