Most of the rumors have suggested one of the characters should be brand new to the series so I’m assuming that’ll happen.
Season 2 was their chance to really throw down with the new characters and they even pushed 2 brand news into S3, so I think at minimum one will be brand new.
I’m dropping the game for a week if Abel gets put in. I mean he was already put in IV mainly as a “here you go Makoto fans” and Laura is already a “here you go Abel/Makoto fans” character in SFV.
He would just be extra redundant when it’s pretty much set in stone that Makoto will hit S4.
Makoto has been the most requested/voted female to get in the game and they said they take that into account when bringing in characters. Ties to story or not Makoto is pretty much the S1 Alex/Juri of S4 and she has to be in if Capcom doesn’t want to face the wrath of waifu lovers and Makoto cosplayers everywhere.