well in the Zangief matchup, if he ever takes a gamble trying to use his lariat / grab mixup on you, and you guess right, you should be backdashing / KKK flipping / Jumping out anyway so it’s that much harder for him to get the drop on you again.
Zangief can poke, yes, but if you use c. mp at COUNTER HIT range (not max range) you will most likely win any poking battle (he doesn’t have a fast low poke that can hang with c. mp) and if he jumps you have the buffer space you need to backdash again and reset the situation, to wait for a moment to move to the otherside of the screen (if you’re at that part of the arena). The biggest threat in this matchup is simply if he has you cornered. At mid screen, etc., he has to gamble with the lariat / SPD mixup early because if you’re playing smart, you won’t be using any normals when he’s that close to you, but either blocking, jumping out, or KKK flipping / backdashing. The normals are a bigger threat (like st. strong and st. roundhouse) that punish jump outs and ensure that Zangief is going to be able to keep walking into you.
Zangief has a lot of tricks but all they are is tricks, like any other character. I don’t think they specifically factor into this matchup like they would any other. You have just as many tricks to use on him (ie, Jump out fierce; beats everything he does on wakeup, literally everything, except for blocking high, though it is punishable on block by EX Green hand.)
Which brings me to my next point. The only thing you really have to look out for mid screen if you’re at coutner hit range (beating all his pokes) and preventing being jumped in on (less likely to get grabbed) is EX Green Hand. Obviously any Zangief is going to fish for this as much as he can as it’s quite a massive return for, what, like a 260 damage punish from Vega? At most? That’s why you use EX RCF. It beats EX Green hand clean, and is definitely something you guys should think about integrating into your Zangief matchup. Honestly for this matchup the only reason I’d use meter is for EX FBA and the EX RCF. EX ST is kind of a waste as it’s more for stun than anything (this also doesn’t succesffuly beat EX Green Hand, cause like EX RCF they’re projectile invincible but ST is way less meaty and doesn’t beat EX GH’s invincibility) and it’s pretty much impossible to stun Zangief as Vega, especially if you’re playing the matchup the way you should be.
Then again, Sasaki, you may have a point. Like any fight vs Zangief the one thing you always can count on is if he’s close to you, you’re probably not going to get away easily. I’ve never fought a Zangief who option selected so it’s normally not very hard to get out. But just look at the JPNS match videos. They always play a mid screen game with very little footsies as quite simply, they need to cut down on giving Zangief any openings. Most of the less experience Zangief players will constantly try to move forward and smash their way in, and while you say he can force his game on you, you can easily go tit for tat countering him Vega style until he tries to be more meticulous. If he is overly aggressive and forces you to guess on a lot of the ways you’re trying to prevent him getting in then you can always, rest assured, back dash / EX FBA your way out of there to reset the situation. You just need to play as safe as humanly possible, which means less is more, and you need to be creative, to force him to waste meter and to have him make the wrong choices on your wake up.
As for Cammy:
I say this is a 7-3 cause essentially, if you’re in the corner, it’s impossible to get away. Meaty cannon strike (airborne) every time in your wakeup into whatever she wants, really. If you try to throw tech early, it’s c. jab, c. short, c. jab spiral for another knockdown, reset. If you expect that string, you need to react to the throw, or, reset. Or she’ll just wop you with a cannon spike, EX cancel, another one for massive damage and stun. Basically in the corner… it’s not even about “guessing right”, it’s just a fact that she is an expert at pinning people down in the corner, and Vega is the worst at freeing himself up. There’s pretty much no openings. And by pretty much, I mean there is none… your best bet is to get the throw tech right, and ST immediately to get her off. But by that point, if they get comfortable with you using your reversal at that point, she’ll just punish you with something absolutely massive, cause she’s cammy, and you’re boned again.
I remember someone said this matchup was a 7-3 for Vega. I’ll refrain from explaining just how stupid I think that is, and even then, before I played Cammy’s, I knew it was not that simple.
At mid screen, spiral arrow forces you to be incredibly meticulous. You really can’t slip and slide around like you can with other matches because this move will probably end up tripping you up anyway. Focusing, although cammy is “focus bait”, is usually not a good idea, as if you’re up close she’ll just throw out her c. mk like she normally would, see you’re focusing, and cancel into the arrow. If you get hit by one spiral arrow you’re pretty much Cammy bait, she’ll start slamming int oyou with the strike (there is literally no reason why she would not do this every single time) and forcing you to be her bitch, basically. You can’t really outpoke her because of spiral arrow, cause if it trades she’ll press the advantage in the time you’re down and close in on you, and the corner. Her pokes are pretty good too, (st. rh, st. mk, c. mk). Hooligan throw and spin knuckle aren’t really a factor, as you can beat hooligan with an air grab / air to air pretty easy (don’t jump out though) and spin knuckle is… well. spin knuckle.
And on wakeup, all she needs to have is some meter and she’s not really going to be afraid of using cannon spike. You CAN kkk flip to avoid it, but she could easily just react and spiral arrow you if she didn’t spike. In addition, the vortex does not really work on Cammy I’ve noticed, partly because Cannon spike doesn’t hit vertically like an SRK or TU, but kind of outward at her body. All she needs to do is auto correct and it tracks you down, so to speak. So you end up having to use the izuna vortex the same way against Zangief; either gamble, go in for the izuna, or if you expect a spike, swerve out and punish with something else. Though, if you swerve out and she didn’t spike… spiral arrow. She’s quick, and Vega’s quick, which serves him greatly in most matchups, but it don’t mean shit in this one. It’s so easy for her to catch you and when she does you’re royally fucked. If she has meter on offense she’ll FADC her spiral arrows and keep the pressure coming and if she doesn’t she’ll make you guess wrong by going over pokes / throw attempts with airborne strike. The reaosn I say this matchup is so bad is because there’s nothing I can think of that’s safe; nothing that’s abusable, nothing that’s strong, nothing that’s a direct counter. You pretty much gamble on everything you do in this matchup and are greeted with huge damage from Cammy while she doesn’t realy have to take many risks at all. Ask Cannon Spook (XBL) for a set and you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about. The most success I had with this matchup was baiting the spiral arrows, mid screen when I could, and punishing with some form of EX FBA combo. I never cornered her (which as anyone who’s played me knows is my strongest asset).