I play on GGPO as well, I also fought in a living breathing tournament against Paul Wall’s DeeJay in ST Classic and HDR. I got fucked up at NEC by this guy, MarsGatti did not at Winter Brawl, though that was HDR so the dynamics have to be a bit different there. I played him in Vanilla ST. Before this gets stupid, I’m not questioning your time put in, so stop going there. That’s all anecdotal evidence and I’ve got plenty of that too, so let’s save ourselves the trouble there. Now, what I take issue with is what you’re perceiving as risk/reward for DeeJay vs risk/reward for Guile. For making a wrong guess, there are many instances where Guile gets knocked down by DeeJay and put into this “cross up” situation you speak of. Did you know that Guile can standing LK Blanka’s slide and even some of his jump ins? Do you also know how difficult it can be to coax an experienced Blanka into those ranges without being at the apex of player reactions/reads/play? There’s a reason Guile vs Blanka is considered a bad match up.
Dee Jay actually isn’t his worst match up, there are a lot of things you can do to counter DeeJay’s buttons from certain ranges, but there’s also a lot of things he can do to stop Guile from doing his thing as well. But seriously, look at what you’re saying: “Guile can do a jab against a slide or MK it’s start up!” Now look at what I’m saying:
“DeeJay can use crouching MK on Guile’s crouching MK.”
Jab does not knock down. Crouching MK for DeeJay DOES knockdown. That’s a dangerous situation to hazard a guess. Especially if you press the button at the wrong time. What if he delays his slide? What if he throws a max out? A lot of dumb what ifs. The one thing I can say for certain is “bad decision means DeeJay just knockdown Guile” “Good decision for Guile means I guess DeeJay has to try harder next time.”
Just little things like that. You can play a very patient game, but so can your opponent. It’s just a matter of time. Guile can knee bazooka O Sagat’s Tiger Shots. Now what are you going to do if he does jump HK at you? You say you’ll see it coming? Is that before or after you get in range? Right.
Theory fighter is dumb in this regard, I know experience on both sides of the world says DeeJay has a slight advantage there. What Guile gets for countering the slide is a pixel of damage. What DeeJay gets is a knockdown. Which gets him into his, as you put it, best situation of “cross up throw.” Now how this differs from Guile vs Honda is that DeeJay actually has a projectile and can distract Guile’s projectile game without huge risk. The match up is manageable, but for all these “what ifs” you list, there are a lot of just as good “what ifs” that DeeJay has in ST against Guile. It’s not the worst match up, it’s most certainly playable, but I play a very patient game as well, but it was only a matter of time in many casuals where someone could creatively get in on me. Well guessed backbreakers or not.
I don’t really care about the input on IV, I think it’s a dry game… but ST? Nothing is ever cut and dry and super manageable for Guile in that game outside of a few matches and you’re still working hard. I like that about Guile in ST, it’s fun because you gotta attack and defend wisely. I just think you’re a bit too caught up on the theory of “oh you got this.” Guile has a lot of funny geometry to his pokes in ST, but that shit isn’t easy, because even if you land it, your opponent is still in it.