Yeah j. Mp is situationally better sometimes. It’s last active frame sticks out under the hurtbox so it can beat certain AA’s like st jab, but it most be timed perfectly. It also has less hit stun, so on characters like Gief if you hit him too high it won’t allow you to follow up with anything substantial. St hk still has it’s place as well as divekick, but uou usually have to mix it up to get them to try to adapt or punish the AA’s they are trying to use.
All shimmies should start with a forward to bait the grab as no good opponent is going to react to a walk back shimmy with a grab or normal that is going to whiff. It did take me a while to realize that it was the forward walk that was triggering my opponent to want to tech and the backward walk that was making them want to hit a low normal. So now I bait the grab with a tight walk in walk out to st mp, st hp and I bait the low with a slight walk back into divekick CH b+mp TC.
I think you may have mixed yourself up Forest or your video isn’t showing what you were typing. You can’t do a st mp, cr mp, into cr mk if you are trying to do it from a meaty to hit Chun’s cr lk on wake up. You can only combo cr mp into cr mk on (CH), so that means you’d need to do cr mp (ch) to st mp then cr mk. Last season Chun had a 3 frame jab, so you’d usually try and do st mp (blocked) and then frame trap the jab with cr mp, then you do cr mk into spiral arrow. The only 3 hit off of Chun’s wake up I recall is cr mp to st mp to cr mk or st hp. Not st mp to cr mp, but that can also whiff against characters with more push back on normals so sometimes you can only get cr mp or st mp into st hp xx special.
Since you have Chun set to back wake up you have to delay the attack slightly over the quick rise version, so this might be throwing you off too. If you hit Chun a frame or two late it will increase the push back so the follow up cr mp will whiff. I’m pretty sure this is the same as it was from last season like all the other counter hit extra push back normals, but since Chun has a larger hit box now in crouching and st mp has less push back this combo is actually possible while it wasn’t before. Also (more bad news) is if you had set the character to crouch and block after you may have still gotten the cr mp to reach but it would have been blocked meaning you would have spiral arrowed most likely and gotten punished after. This happens because crouching hurt boxes are larger than stand boxes and at that range and timing the cr mp’s last active frame reaches the crouching hit box as they recover or whiffs on the standing box. For this reason you should avoid doing st mp to cr mp on hit, and only do it on block. If you see the hit you should be converting to st hp for more damage anyway or if it’s too far out just doing cr mk. In no situation should you be doing st mp (on hit) into cr mp as st hp and cr mk are both better options. The exception to this is if you are going for a buffered whiff punish or a follow up frame trap on block like st mp to cr mp but as of S2 you can now do st mp to st mp instead as well. Shit even st mp to st hp is a 3 frame trap now.
In most situations if you are going for a meaty (ie you’ve seen they like hitting a button on wake up) using cr mp or st mp is your best option as you can always convert to st hp xx special safely for good damage. If you notice they are always blocking on wake up then st lk to cr lp or cr lk or grab are your best options. Make note that st lk to other lights will never whiff on CH but going to B+mp can whereas going to st mp into cr mk on hit will always connect, but is a 4 frame trap. If your opponent starts to catch on that there is a hole after st lk, cr lp then start switching to cr mp after the cr lp instead of st mp as it’s a 3 frame trap, can still combo after the cr lp (CH) and can combo into st mk if the cr mp (CH) instead. So basically you bait them into a hitting a button after st lk, st lp because they think you are either going for a grab or st mp and then hit them with the cr mp into cr mk instead. This really makes them scared to hit a button and is essentially how Meyers got Stupendous to let him run all over his ass at WNF. Stu had so many chances to jab/grab Meyers out but was just to scared to try after being caught so many times. That’s the thing, if you let Cammy pressure you then she will, but you have to let her. Here’s that match if you want to check it out. They both made a lot of mistakes but Stu lost because he let Cammy get away with too many things and it’s mainly because Meyers scared him into not wanting to do anything. This is what you want to strive for with Cammy imo. Put the fear into them.