Hit confirming options without charge are dependent upon his TCS of course, but you have enough time after a st.mk to charge for a rush punch if you link into jab, so it isn’t like you can’t do walk up pressure with his specials. Balrog hit confirm game is linear until you start counter hit confirming, then he gets some stronger meterless ender options. I’ll throw some options out below for anyone interested.
Cr.lk, cr.lp xx m.dash straight
Instead of your LK/MK/HK confirm, do cr.lk > st.lk confirm target combo. Keeps you +1 if it’s blocked.
St.mk > cr.lp xx m.dash straight, if st.mk is blocked do a stutter step st.mk or immediate st.hk looking for CC.
St.hk > st.mk xx h.dash straight or do a follow up st.hk after the first one. If st.mk counter hits you can do cr.mk target combo IIRC.
St.mk(counter-hit) > st.mk TC xx V-skill ender
Cr.mk(counter-hit) > cr.lp xx. m.dash straight
St.mp(counter-hit) > cr.lp xx m.dash straight
Cr.mp(counter-hit) > st.lk TC
One last thing about his combo game is his ender options, you have two options primarily - dash straight and dash low. Dash straight does slightly more damage, dash low knocks them down and you get follow up pressure. Speaks for itself, choose what you need. Use bar for EX dash straight when you need it, big damage boost and knocks down for a meaty.
Balrog’s poking game is quite heavy on commitment, as per every iteration of Balrog rush punch poking is still possible yet not incredibly strong. Counter poking is Balrog’s forté. St.mk xx h.dash straight/h.dash low is a good counter poke option, and cr.mp xx m.dash straight/l.dash low can play a strong counter poke game at closer ranges. You’ll be using a lot of cr.mk trying to catch stray limbs because if you successfully catch someone that stomp TC leaves Balrog in such a good position to start his close pressure. Don’t use V-Skill punch to poke, it’s -4 all the time. Use it to react to fireballs and if you just want to poke use l.dash straight because it’s pushback and active frames make it safe when spaced.
About anti-airs, st.mp is your go-to anti-air but it has a deadzone against close jump-ins that are very deep, around Balrog’s head area. Cr.hp covers that deadzone. Simple enough to adjust to. Don’t use screw smashes to anti-air, ever. It sucks unless it’s EX against a far jump-in, I’ve tried. Their hurtboxes aren’t made to be anti-airs.
Tried to cover what you asked about but if I missed anything just ask again and I’ll try my best.