Lucario vs Mega Man I think is definitely in Lucario’s favor, but how much I can’t quite say.
On Mega Man’s side of things:
Can rack up damage quite well and block Lucario’s approach.
Can deal with most of Lucario’s toolset pretty well when Lucario doesn’t have much damage accumulated, especially if you don’t give the Lucario a chance to charge aura sphere; low charge aura sphere at low damage will
Can edgeguard Lucario fairly effectively when Lucario doesn’t have much damage accumulated.
Of course, then there’s the huge problem in the match-up. Sure, Mega Man can rack up damage fine. But he can have a lot of trouble actually blastlining Lucario, and we all know that Lucario’s recovery is downright stupid. And once Lucario’s Aura starts to kick in, Mega Man’s zoning game gets almost completely negated, since Aura Sphere at about 50-60%, even when low charged, completely rips through everything Mega Man can throw Lucario’s way. And if the damage somehow gets even higher, force palm outranges all of MM’s options. And once Lucario is able to negate Mega Man’s range game he has a much easier time approaching or just setting up a kill of his own. And since Mega Man has a ton of lag on all of his primary kill moves, it makes it even easier for Lucario to set up one of his slower kill moves, or just giving Lucario more chances to get his own kill move in since MM often can’t afford to take risks at that point.
Overall I think this is a 6-4 Lucario’s favor…maybe a 7-3? Hard to say really, since I still don’t think my Lucario is that good.
Sheik loses that match-up in the same way that Mega Man does.
She can’t blastline Lucario.
Any character that has trouble outright killing Lucario is going to have a problem in the match-up. That’s why Diddy is a bad match-up for Lucario.
Not to mention that Diddy’s capacity to just go in on Lucario helps a lot. Characters who have to play the range game ultimately play into the dog’s hands…paws?
I’m not going to be able to toss out MU numbers just yet, but I know on villagers side of things that characters with strong projectiles or to a lesser extent reflectors will be in his favor.
There is a list being compiled of the percentage needed to kill with a pocketed move, some of them are super low. Jr charged cannonball, megabuster, greninja charged shuriken. When they eat that first low percent death to a pocketed move, hesitation will set in and you might just take away the tool entirely.
Reflectors are easy to bait and punish with rocket and may god have mercy on your soul if I pocket a reflected tree. Dat 0% death.