Well, I’ll keep it brief.
Don’t be reckless with rocks. They are useful for keeping Seth out, but they aren’t brain dead easy like in the T. Hawk match.
If you don’t have time to throw out a HK Ruffian or st. HP, use cr. MK to beat all of his wall jump options. I strongly suggest you do not use B+MP for it. If Seth changes his drop speed using dive kick, you will be hit and hurt.
If it wasn’t for my inner flashiness wanting to land U2 so badly, I’d use U1 in the match. Beats his jump/wall-jump in BS and, because of his health, is still really devastating. Having the ability to FADC into ultra forces Seth to respect your wake-up a lot more (true for any character, but again, Seth has a glass jaw). U2 is still good, and against a really good Seth, who is less likely to make lots of silly jump ins, I’d use U2.
Zonk is super important in this match. There is almost no reason to ever wake-up using EX zonk. Seth rarely pressures from the ground on wake-up. The time to let a zonk go is during his resets and mix-ups. Hit or miss, when he sees it, he’s likely to go into EX Zonk bait mode and will probably neutral jump after his next reset attempt, be ready to anti-air. Then again, random EX zonks is equally as unsafe and mashed DPs, so keep it honest.
You need your punishes to be on point. cr. HP xx HP Criminal Upper isn’t enough. I’m not saying you need to throw out the Momochi/Sasaki special, but at least have st. HP > cr. MP xx CU down. Every little bit helps vs. Seth. Your anti-airs need to be on point. If you are not in Seth’s mix-up game, there is NO REASON to take a risk. Stay mobile and mix-up your pressure/wake-up pressure game.
I honestly have a difficult time creating any sort of frame trap game against Seth. In a long set it’s easier I guess. Between SPD, DP, and Teleport, it’s almost impossible unless he’s cornered.
I don’t fear this match all that match, but I have lots of Seth experience as Cody.
On a sad/side note, Seth has a pretty easy to do unblockable on Cody off a LP SPD using j. LK. Good luck.