That could be the next great MIT / CalTech rivalry… who can make the HDR version of Big Blue… Seriously though, the statistical analysis of the matchup data could be done but the problem would be to ensure accuracy you’d have to have hundreds if not thousands of matches and results. If there was a way to gather that level of data, you would need a way to measure skill (which more than anything I am 100% sure would be the largest coefficient), and then you could tackle those matchups. That would also provide an interesting base as a way to compare different skill levels across matchups.
I think the regression would look something like
% chance of victory = A(talent variable) + B(Character Selection) + C(Possible Opponent Choice 1) + D(Possible Opponent Choice 2) +…+ R(Possible Opponent Choice 16) + S(Online, if we wanted to measure online impact, but reporting matches offline would be so difficult and frought with controversy in a dataset the size we would need)
If we developed a skill system say from 1 - 10, 10 being the highest, and 1 being the lowest score, if people could identify themselves correctly and stuck to their main characters, then it might be possible to actually develop a quantitative model like you’re looking for, but the collection of the data is difficult. Even in WWL play, where I in theory am getting more than 150 match results each week, because its the same players playing the same players, and so many characters go unused in our league (no sagat, no cammy, no rog, just to name a few), it’d be hard to gather the variation in the data necessary to make it legitimate. But I think you could form the regression in such a way as to reduce pre-test bias to a minimum.
zaspacer, I’m not sure how relevant VST videos are for HDR chun vs fei. The chicken wing’s properties have really been changed, so it’s not the same situation anymore.
Whoa whoa whoa whoa whoa… I work with 2 people who are Social Science Ph.Ds from Caltech and they might get a little mad at you. Personally, I didn’t do my Ph.D. work at either one so… I don’ t know what that says about me. :woot:
And this was MY main point beforehand. The numbers have lost their meaning, IMO, and no longer represent what we want them to: how many fights you would win in a 10 game match. Again, fractions are weird because… you can’t win half a game. So by choosing to make a matchup 4.5-5.5, you’re already ignoring the general, INHERENT nature of what you are trying to represent with those numbers. So why are we sticking with those at all? We’ve already jumped into the realm of “representative numbers” so much that using fractions makes match-up numbers not make any sense at all. Rather than using fractions because “half the numbers aren’t used,” why don’t we ditch the #-# format and just go with one number and use ALL the numbers?
10 - I win for free. Don’t bother trying. Loser.
9 - I have a strong advantage. I barely have to work to win.
8 - I definitely can beat you fairly simply, but I still have to at least pay attention so that I don’t do something dumb.
7 - Good fight. I have to work, but if I do, I have a better chance of winning.
6 - Could go either way but I have a few things that tilt in my favor.
5 - We’re even.
4 - If it just weren’t for those one or two little things, we would be totally even!!
3 - Phew Man, you’ve definitely got a leg up on me, but I can pull out the wins if I play smart!
2 - Damn. I can win, but phew! Boy do I have to work! Geez.
1 - F’in-A! I can only seem to win if I get lucky. Let’s run this one again! I gotta see if I can win more!
0 - I might as well put down my controller and not even play. Really.
That even removes the weirdness of people listing:
T.Hawk:
Vs. Chun - 4-6
Vs. Fei Long - 6-4
Wait, so… does Chun beat Hawk 6-4?? Or does… Hawk beat Chun… 6-4?
Instead, we’ll have:
Honda:
Vs. Ryu - 2
Vs. Dhalsim - 5
Vs. Cammy - 10
Which just makes a bit more sense and is less confusing.
I’m pretty sure nobody is actually confused by those. If “winning 4.5 games out of 10” bothers you, just look at it as winning 45% of games. The ratio is what’s important. Which is why I disagree that “using fractions makes match-up numbers not make any sense at all”.
By making it a ratio like this, we totally dodge the squishiness of ratings like “7 is, uh, a good advantage, but not super good?”. A 7-3 matchup would have the guy on the 7 side win 70% of the time, now that’s something that anyone can understand without consulting a table of definitions. It’s less confusing, not more.
Edit: Although I do agree that it’s annoying to try to read “the Hawk matchup is 6-4 Chun” and try to guess which one has advantage… so I’m not sure what to do about this except to remind people to be clear. “Hawk 6 - 4 Chun” or “Hawk vs Chun is 6-4” is okay, I guess.
Yeah, I can agree with that. It pretty much means we’re really talking about 100 games. So 4.5 means you’ll win 45 games out of 100, which does make sense.
My main argument against this is that it’s still not clear going by numbers. Some people think winning 70% is a HUGE advantage, while others think that it’s just a good advantage. Perspective still clouds this judgement. But if we narrow it down to just being: “7 means you have a good advantage and 8 means you have a huge advantage”, then hopefully people who think someone has a huge advantage will just go with 8. That way if someone who thinks a huge advantage is 70% and the other person who thinks a huge advantage is 80%, they’ll both still pick 8 because it explicitly says “huge advantage.”
Yeah, I’ve always stuck with the idea that the character you are focusing on DOES need to be listed first. So if you say, Hawk, Vs. Chun, is 6-4, it means that Hawk is the 6 and Chun is the 4. I mean, hell, maybe we should just say “Hawk wins 60% of the time,” and just be done with that.
An example would be ken vs honda, close range? mid range? long range? Then the matchup is the average of them.
Ken would still be considered the winner, but we all know what honda can do when he gets close.
Instead of saying ken wins this often against honda, you could say that generally ken beats honda, but according to the matchup he tends to lose if honda can get inside. A break down of each range also gives players help in their matchups.
Why even bother tiering this stuff anymore? Why not consolidate all of the matchup info to one thread? The first post could be a table of contents displaying post #s and pages for specific matchups.
Individual character threads could be used for combo discussion(OJ), new tactics, and general this character shouldn’t do/should do this in any/most of their matchups.
Yeah, technically there’s the SRK wiki for that (consolidating info in one place), but nobody ever updates it for some reason. I heard you had to somehow apply and give a bio for the privilege of being able to edit it?
I thought we had a good thing going when we were tweaking Damdai’s tier chart. Not sure why so many people are coming up with alternatives to the standard tier chart, but most of these new ideas seem problematic to me. The normal tier chart is fine, IMO.
I was mostly just worried that people don’t see eye to eye with the numbers and what they mean, so the chart won’t be accurate anyhow. If Thelo and EAMegaMan both think 7-3 is a major advantage and then Jiggly and Gridman both see 8-2 is a major advantage, then the ratings all won’t fall in line. Thelo and EAMegaMan will rate Ryu vs. Honda as 7-3, but then Jiggly and Gridman will rate (let’s just pretend they agree) Hawk vs., say, Cammy as 8-2… In actuality, both fights are about equal difficulty, but the ratings won’t reflect it properly.
Bleah.
I think I’m beating a dead horse by this point, and maybe I’m just over thinking things. I think this’ll be the last I say on the matter.
I get what you’re saying, but I don’t think it’s a big deal. There are a lot of factors that can sway people’s ratings. And honestly, I think people’s different playing styles and match-up experience affects the numbers more than anything else.
I think as long as we get several people’s takes on the numbers for each character(ala Nohoho’s ST chart) we can make sense of things.
UPDATE
Just went 0-21 against Thelo’s Honda, I was Cammy. I would’a gone up to 30 but I figured I was boring the poor guy. I managed to win 2 rounds in all of this. Now, I’m pretty damn sure most people WILL tell you I’m a good Cammy…but this was total rape. Here’s what I learned in the match:
To beat a GOOD Honda, you need uber reflexes, the kind which even the greatest players won’t always have. This includes being ready to Front Kick a headbutt within a split-second after a neutral jump. Really bloody hard. I was doing the FK motion EVERY TIME I’d land.
Since the Hooligan is setup based on the opponents’ reaction, a good Honda will almost ALWAYS beat it. Thelo more or less headbutted all of my Hooligans, and the thing is there are only so many ways you can set it up.
HHS starts up faster than the Hooligan, so again spacing is a huge issue here for Cammy. You must be right outside HHS range, and that’s including the fact that Honda moves forward with it
st. mp doesn’t always beat HHS, I think you have to literally punch the outer fist part?
Jumping mp into Honda doesn’t do anything, you will eat an Ochio sandwich.
His headbutt acts as an AA, so again jumping in is no good
HHS, headbutt, and his normals can either beat or trade with drill
In closing, this was total rape. Does anyone know what Honda’s Sirlin faced as Cammy? Any friggin’ videos? I need some miracle ideas for this matchup!
EDIT: I will say this match is 8-2. I say 8-2 because maybe I’m not good enough or I’m playing the match wrong, because to me personally it feels like 10-0. Perhaps Thelo should face Mr. Jangara, but I play with him and I’ve seen him lose many times to inferior Honda’s. And Thelo is one of the finest Honda’s in the world, so he’s easily the best person to face for this.
EDIT: Thelo - feel free to post your impressions, and even critique my play. One of the things I could’ve improved upon was FK’ing you after your jumping lk, and doing FK’s on wakeup. Anything else? Has any Cammy ever given you trouble?
Trickery and baiting pretty much. If the honda player has good reflexes and just sits in the corner, you won’t win period. If you’re an idiot like me and like to play honda offensively against Cammy, you can neutral jump HP headbutts on reaction and punish the stupid-long recovery. Every time you jump you should be using a late MP to try and stuff headbutts.
But yeah, when the honda player is serious, you’re not going to win
Like I said before all the data in the world means nothing is unorganized and debated endlessly on, so I propose for all of us to focuse on determining a single characters matchups at a time.
Fei Long HDR changes:
Short Chicken Wing: go through fireballs on start-up
Chicken wings: slower recovery (no more traps or combo out of it),
worse priority in air on 1st hit, lower Super meter charge
Short Flame Kick: more recovery
Flame Kick: all versions knock down, all versions juggle, can still
juggle after chick wing, lower Super meter charge
Rekka: travel farther
Super: travel farther, faster, head vulnerable on 4th and 5th hits,
last hit as knockdown so can’t juggle after
Fei Long’s Juggle Limit: increased from 3 to 4
source: http://www.sirlin.net/articles/street-fighter-hd-remix-fei-long.html
So, specific to the HDR Chicken Wing changes from VST, we get:
Short Chicken Wing:
go through fireballs on start-up
Chicken wings:
slower recovery (no more traps or combo out of it)
worse priority in air on 1st hit
lower Super meter charge
It’s the same basic Wing… but it’s slower, as worse priority on part of it, and it charges less Super.
So why shouldn’t Chun Li VST tactics vs. the Fei Long VST Chicken Wing work aside from:
anti-Wing tactics being more vulnerable to other moves like improved Rekkas.
anti-Wing tactics being vulnerable if they relied on fireball vs. start-up of Wing.
Thelo covers exactly how I feel on it.
When the US census has the average family having 2.5 kids, I think we understand that this means that the average is between 2 and 3.
In a Street Fighter chart, a score of 4.5 means that character wins on average between 4 and 5.
I think it would help if we had a link to each chart, with the link showing the chart, an explanation of its genesis/sources, and coverage of detailed historical mods to it.
Then we can…
look between charts and have discussions over the differences,
make different charts to cover different demographics,
etc.
As long as the number correlate to a reference point, I think things are fine:
numbers can get an objective weighting by recognizing that data points along the scale represent increasing difficulties.
numbers correlate specifically to #/% of games won/lost in a finite set.
The varying levels of drama queen that Thelo, EAMegaMan, Jiggly, and Gridman attach to a match outcome are gonna vary.
The NFL Charges are 1-1, and Kurropi might be ok with that while I think it’s terrible… but it’s still 1-1.
If Thelo thinks a Honda matchup is 7-3, then he thinks Honda takes it 70% of the time.
If EAMegaMan things that same Honda matchup is 8-2, then he things Honda takes it 80% of the time.
Regardless of their emotional reaction or what words we use to describe such results, we have a defined % of victory we are looking at.
Did you ask Thelo whose Cammy gives him the most trouble?
Or what you can do to tighten up your game vs. him?
If you don’t think your Cammy is representative of the current top end Cammy quality in this matchup, let’s address that.
(work on the matchup, or ask Thelo what Cammy gives him trouble [or otherwise find a top Cammy in the matchup] and have them dual)
But just winging a number distorts the process and moves it back to an opinion poll.
I did actually ask him, waiting for an answer here. As for those vids - well, the first vid has Cammy getting owned by Honda, so I’d my playstyle is exactly the same as that dudes LOL.
I’m not a top end Cammy, but I do think I’m good. Perhaps someone here can rate me, I’ve always been curious as to what others think of my play. Given Cammy’s huge flaws I feel like I’ve come pretty far with her. The thing is I play with Mr. Jangara whenever I see him, and I’ve seen him get beaten by inferior Honda’s.
These are the only Cammy’s I can think of who are good:
Mr. Jangara, Silver Rain 007, Junie H, XxKosowarxX, TragicHero, TheTarman, and I think that’s it? We’re a pretty small group, and I haven’t played with some of those guys in a while. Also, guys like Junie H and Kosowar used to be better than me, but there is a chance I am better than them now. Apologies if I’m forgetting someone.
