If anyone cares, here’s my matchup chart for Chun. Matchups I don’t have too much experience with are in parenthesis (or rather, not enough quality time with good players), so it’s more of a theoretical estimation. Also, I’ve noted whether or not I think a match got worse, better, or remained the same from ST to STHD.
Ryu - 3.5-6.5 (worse)
This match was already 6-4 Ryu, but now it’s even harder to deal with corner fireball traps.
Ken - 4-6 (worse)
Safer Jab and Strong SRKs, a farther-reaching Fierce SRK, and a more difficult time with corner fireball traps made this one change pretty drastically, in my opinion.
Honda - 6-4 (same)
It’s easier for Honda to get in, but I still don’t think it’s THAT easy. I think there are new things to look for in this match, but I don’t think it got any better or worse for either character in the grand scheme of things.
Blanka - 6-4 (same)
Well, you can’t deal as much super damage anymore, but that’s the only thing that I think is harder for Chun. Nothing Blanka got really helped in this match, so while it’s easier for Blanka, I think the difference is negligible.
Zangief - 7-3 (worse, but not enough so to seriously affect the matchup)
I think the way that Chun zones in this match makes it so that Gief’s changes aren’t that useful. The faster Banishing Punch helps sometimes, but otherwise this matchup hasn’t really moved anywhere I think.
(Guile - 5-5) (worse)
I’m not sure about this one. On one hand, Guile got a lot of good buffs which are practical against Chun-Li; Chun also got a lot of nerfs, but I don’t think they affect this matchup too much. On the other hand, though, I haven’t seen any of Guile’s changes drastically affect this match. I think I need more practice against good Guile players to say for sure, but it’s worse on paper, I guess.
Dhalsim - 6-4 (same)
Chun can’t deal as much damage with her super, and her old Neckbreaker was really good in this match, I think. On the other hand, Dhalsim can’t combo into super anymore, and the noogie trap is much easier to deal with. So, I think this match stayed in the same place.
Balrog - 5.5-4.5 (same)
All in all, both parties got weaker, but not in any way that changes their overall gameplan in this matchup. So, I think this one stayed about the same.
Vega - 6-4 (same)
This one seems like it should be easier for Chun, but as far as I know, she has no good wall dive counters while grounded, so she still has to risk being knocked down every time if she wants to try and stop wall dive spam. I should also note that I’m notoriously TERRIBLE at this matchup, so I’m open to being completely wrong about this.
(Sagat 4-6) (better in some ways, worse in some ways)
I think the dynamic of this match has changed a lot, but it still remains bad for Chun. You can now jump in on Sagat (thank God), but that’s about all that got better. The super deals inconsistent damage to Sagat, and while it’s harder to deal with corner fireball traps from Ryu and Ken, it’s now virtually impossible against a Sagat player that’s paying attention. So, in the end, while I think the way the match plays out is different, Sagat still has the advantage.
Bison - 6-4 (worse, but not enough so to seriously affect the matchup)
I think this is mostly the same (that is, just plain bad for Bison), but Devil’s Reverse is pretty awesome as an escape, and Chun’s Lower priority Lightning Legs allows Bison to hit Chun out of them clean with Psycho Crusher and Scissor Kicks. Granted, it’s not consistent, but it trades/wins a LOT more often, so even if you accidentally do a Psycho Crusher/Scissor Kicks right into Chun’s Lightning Legs, it has a much better chance of working out for Bison, now.
Fei Long: 4-6 (worse)
Fei’s inability to combo off Chicken Wing means that Chun can risk anti-airing him with a ground move now, instead of Neutral J.Lk. On the other hand, Lk Chicken Wing is something that Chun has no really good answer for at close range. Fei can also pressure from farther away, and his super is better while Chun’s deals inconsistent damage to Fei. This isn’t impossible for Chun, but it definitely is one of the biggest changes in matchup dynamic overall for her.
T.Hawk - 6-4 (better in some ways, worse in some ways)
The main point of issue here is the Hawk Dive; it’s no longer scary in the way it was in ST, where being hit by a Hawk Dive meant the round was probably over. On the other hand, it is a better pressure option now that it’s safe, and it’s not incredibly easy for Chun to deal with at close range - the otherwise ideal spot for Chun to be. So, I’d say the match is less stupid, now. I’d still put it in the same spot on a 10-point chart as ST, though.
(Dee Jay - 5-5) (undecided)
This match doesn’t feel any worse…but, it sure sounds worse on paper, so I wonder if I just have yet to meet a Dee Jay that can really show me the full extent of how this match has changed? Chun’s super was a big deal in the match, and it’s weaker now. On top of that, Dee Jay can do his crossup combos easier, and even has a new, easier potential dizzy combo. This match seems like it should be harder for Chun, and yet, I haven’t had a harder time with this match in STHD.
(Cammy: 6-4) (undecided)
I wrote 6-4 Chun, but I don’t know much about this match. I know it was considered 6-4 Chun in ST. I think that the new Backfist doesn’t help much, and the risker Thrust Kick is bad for Cammy. On the other hand, I haven’t played many Cammy players who are awesome with Cannon Drill pressure, so I don’t feel like I have enough information to definitively speak on this matchup.
Overall points: 80 (+5)