Ryu’s doesn’t have any horribly bad match ups in HDR. Boxer is close to 5-5 now, just depends who manages to execute their plan better at the beginning of the round usually. If you can pressure Boxer and get him cornered or full screen, you’re doing well. If you’re cornered, you’re in trouble, which basically makes it 5-5 to me, since neither one of them has a broken advantage over the other.
Let me preface this by saying I’m not a top tier Ryu, so take my opinions with a grain of salt. Ryu’s matchups in HDR look something like this (+ or - 0.5):
vs Honda - 7-3 (+2) - Ryu’s best match up in HDR.
vs Blanka - 6-4 (+1) - Ryu’s match to lose, dp + fireball + cr.mp is good stuff.
vs Guile - 5-5 (0) - Even match, with Guile’s new RH fk, his overhead mix up and still generally annoying like he was in ST.
vs Boxer - 5-5 (0) - whoever executes and guesses correctly usually wins this one.
vs Ken - 5.5 - 4.5 (+0.5) - Ryu still has the advantage, like he did in ST. Better fireballs, knock down Hurricane kick and better super put him ahead of Ken.
vs Chun - 5-5 (0) - In my experience, a 5-5. Choi believes it to be a 6-4 for Ryu in ST, and I imagine since Chun got nerfed, that wouldn’t change. I’m probably just bad at the match up.
vs Gief - 4-6 (-1) - Gief is still trouble for Ryu. He was a bad match up in ST and with the buffs he got, he still retains that quality of being a pest.
vs Dhalsim - 4-6 (-1) - Fake fireball makes this less of a one sided affair. Dhalsim is still ahead in this match up because of better normals, better zoning game and because he can still slide under fireballs. No longer a 3-7 beatdown, thanks to fake fk and nerfed throw range.
vs Sagat - 5-5 (0) - A fair even fight. Before super, Sagat has the advantage. Once Ryu gets his meter full, it’s trickier. All in all, the fight is pretty even.
vs Claw - 4.5-5.5 (-1) - Ryu still has trouble with Vega. While Vega lost the wall dive shenanigans that were hell for everyone, he still has that monstrous st.mk and roll/slide pressure and extremely fast jump ins. Very close to being even, but Ryu has to work significantly harder than Vega to win this.
vs T-Hawk - 5-5 (0) - O. Hawk was always difficult for Ryu in ST. His new dive doesn’t knock down, which makes it generally less scary than it used to. Whether Hawk players like it more or less is irrelevant. From every single Ryu player I have talked to, we are all less scared of Hawk diving since it doesn’t spell immediate doom and gloom. Still a shit match though, because Hawk can still do some nice mixups off his rh grab, as well as really good normals.
vs Fei - 6 - 4 (+1) - Fei still needs to work really hard to close the gap on Ryu. Ryu doesn’t dominate the match, but still has the advantage with fireball pressure. If Fei gets in range, the match flips around, but isn’t completely over for Ryu.
vs Dee Jay - 6 - 4 (+1) - DJ gaining the uppercut to eat Fireballs helps him a little, but Ryu still wins this match if played properly.
vs Cammy - 6-4 (+1) - Ryu can zone Cammy out pretty well. Cammy is great at making you block, but doesn’t necessarily manage to shut Ryu down. One solid dp or red fireball if she manages to get in and it’s back to the grind for Cammy.
vs Dictator - 5.5 - 4.5 (+0.5) - This match used to be way worse for Dictator. Still, Dic has some measure of trouble with Ryu. It could be 5-5, but Ryu has to make a mistake for Dictator to win, which puts it in Ryu’s favor. See Daigo vs NKI at evo. Taira used to rate this a 6.5-3.5 for Ryu, but that was ST. The new DR allows Bison to escape the old fireball trap and some other Ryu pressure.
Which puts him around +4.5. Again, this is personal opinion and completely based on my experience.
I don’t think Ryu has changed that much from ST’s tier list (http://curryallergy.blogspot.com/2008/11/super-turbo-new-arcadia-diagram.html) - his bad matchups aren’t as bad anymore, and his good ones have remained about the same, but at the same time, a lot of the cast seems to have gotten better.