Theory fighter wall of text ahead:
Honestly, I think the one thing Vega is missing is a solid anti-air. He destroys people during ground footsies, but not someone in the air. He has an amazing walk and walk back speed, the best regular throw range in the game (and 2nd-best kara throw), long range in general, a bunch of moves that are as fast as jabs, a quick overhead, that fast c.MK that’s + on block and can be linked from and combos that don’t suck. But he’s free when they can jump at him.
He CAN anti-air people who are jumping in from far-ish with s.HK, but for like no damage and only from that angle. c.HP is a bad move with a bad hitbox with two active frames that will never anti-air anyone unless you’re a lucky MF. His front flip kick isn’t actually a good anti air. OK priority and no invincibility, basically it’s there to counter throws, be fast and AA sometimes from certain angles. So yea, imo Vega is absolutely powerless to someone jumping at his face. At best, maaaaybe he can U2 them (risky). He can also jump up and air throw, which DOES have ridiculous priority, but is also assuming that they haven’t already stuck out a normal that will hit you if you try to jump up there.
All of this stuff is absolutely moot during meaty jump ins. Using KKK or PPP will only get you option selected or just punished on reaction, U2 can’t hit a safe jump. All Vega can do is block the incoming blockstring, pay close attention so as to not get thrown or overhead, and watch his mask and claw fall off. If he just had an anti air that worked, he’d have pretty much no holes in his footsie game.
Possible fixes I daydreamed up:
Maybe he can have a command normal like Cody’s b+MP. It’d work aesthetically with Vega; he’d just kind of swipe the air in front of or above him. OTOH, I can see that being straight-up overpowered in a lot of matches. Vega dominates in ground to ground footsies, and with a great command normal AA I might actually be inclined to say that he’s overpowered. He could just walk back and forth all day against most characters and beat em up during footsies, and AA whenever they tried to jump. They could balance it out by giving it slow startup or recovery, so he has to on point with the AA and not get faked out. However, Vega would still retain his main weakness: get a random knockdown on him during footsies and safe jump him, and it’s kind of over for Vega.
He could also just have a special move that looks the last hit of his U2. It could be an AA and an anti-crossup move. It’d prob be best if it can’t hit grounded people. The motion could be QCB or RDP P (he’s out of slots for charge moves). This would also fit aesthetically with Vega. Like the previous suggestion, versions of the move could have slow startup or recovery to give it a weakness. Maybe the EX version would setup for combos after it hits, like the front flip or even Ultra 2. That’s work especially well if the motion was RDP, ending in d/b. Like the last suggestion, Vega prob wouldn’t be too good because he’d retain his bad wakeup.
The easiest and quickest fix would to just give him back his Scarlet Terror invincibility. This would actually give his game some depth to Vega’s game because it requires a d/b charge. He wouldn’t be able to counter a jump in while doing footsies and walking back n forth and such. He’d have to know the jump is coming. This also comes with the benefit of giving Vega a risky wakeup and anti-pressure option. OTOH, I can see Vega players being happy to just sit on d/b and poke all day (esp with c.MP) in a lot of match ups, secure in the fact that they have an invincible AA. Maybe make it so only the EX version has this invincibility?
Ofc course, they could just make c.HP into a decent move. Give it uses besides a meterless link ender. Just give it a non-terrible hitbox that can AA, and make it active for more than one frame. Vega would get an AA while still retaining his weakness to wakeup games. Bueno. I’d like it too if it wasn’t -6 on ground hit, but I ain’t picky.
Any of those 4 would work and Vega would be a great character without having any other changes.
Short version
-Give his an AA command normal like Cody’s b.MP
-Or give him an AA special like the last hit of his U2
-Or make his Scarlet Terror invincible again, at least the EX version
-Or make his c.HP a non-shitty move that can anti-air