Warning: long post
What you did right in the second Seth match was baiting his wake-up moves and then punishing him for it - that’s why you won. What you did wrong was press buttons during their combo pressure. Block the whole string first, then punish accordingly. For his dive kicks, typically they’re going for a x-up so block the other way.
Also, try and get some solid bnbs down. Get into training mode and experiment - see what combos are possible from jump ins or from xyz position (especially regarding jump ins and crouching position).
A couple of times you didn’t actually finish your combos or could have gone for a higher damaging and easier combo to pull off. E.g. in the Ryu match video (last round, approximately 1:33 in the video), after you landed the jump in mid kick, you could have actually combo’d with cr. mp to flash kick - which actually would have won you the round damage-wise (don’t know why you went for light punches ;p).
Guile doesn’t get many opportunities to generate any real offence, so you need to have as many combos in your muscle memory as possible. So in this cases you do manage to get some offensive momentum, you’ve got some decent damage behind it!
Regarding wake-up defence
Any jump in attack counts as an overhead, so they need to be blocked high. That’s the easy part. The hard part is figuring out which way he’s going to land (i.e is he going for a x-up or not). You can semi-estimate this if you pay attention to their spacing. If he’s about 1 character space away, he’s probably going for an ambiguous x-up - pay attention very closely, you should be able to see what attack he throws out and still have enough time to block it. In the case of Ryu, a lot of them like to use jump in hard kick, but in order for this to x-up, they have to do it late (about the same time they’ve jumped passed Guile’s head after he’s getting up). If he does it before that, you just block it normally.
If he’s a little further (2-3 character spaces away), he’s most likely going for a standarad overhead style jump in (or for a normal jump in hard kick). Again, you’d just block this normally.
If he’s even further away, he’s going for shenanigans (x-up tatsu; teleport etc). Here, you usually have more time to watch and react because of the distance.
That’s all I got for now, Hopefully it’s understandable and helpful (if not, let me know). Keep practicing and keep asking questions!