I made it to a computer earlier than I expected. Reviewing the thread now but it doesn’t seem like we’ve been making much progress.
I really don’t see how bad formatting would lead to a lynch vote on you. That’s exactly the kind of logic I don’t want us to be using. Unless you make a mistake like MP and post your list of mafia in the general thread I don’t see any reason to lynch off that.
At the moment it looks like only Mobius and myself have voted (apologies to anyone I’ve missed).
@darkgeneral: I’m with synonym on this one. Don’t worry about typos, keep analyzing.
Speaking of which, on your LG question. I use research not to figure out why Azure might have been killed, but who my suspects are. Earlier, I posted my thoughts on yomi/WIFOMs and the fact that doing game theory analyses versus unknown individuals probably won’t get us too far. My approach is to look in the thread for clues about people raising suspicion on others, etc. and look for trends and anomalies to flush out the mafia.
Ok. With only four hours to go, we have to get voting. It’s tough, because I don’t have a solid read. But getting the suspects out there and asking suspects targeted questions has indeed helped. I think we’re doing the right things to eventually win.
I haven’t been super impressed with Saitsu’s responses to questioning. Again, it’s tough because he can’t exactly prove he’s civ. but, for now, he seems to be the most logical choice.
Lynch:Saitsu
Everyone: remember to use your own judgment in determining who to vote for. Let’s just make sure not to have a tie vote. I’ll be checking the thread shortly before the deadline for sure, in case we are in danger of that.
With that said. I have a plan for today, I’m not sure how many people will be on board with this, but hear me out. We all go no lynch and we all decide to stay COMPLETELY SILENT FOR THE NEXT NIGHT PHASE, or close to it. At best we’ll start 6/2 at the beginning of day 3 with our medic still alive. At worst our Medic is the night kill and we still end up at 6/2 going into day 3.
These are the pros I’ve come to by enacting this plan:
1: We get more information about how the mafia is playing. No matter who they target they’ll have to show us how they intend on really playing. We’ll see exactly where their heads are at, they have a couple of options and depending on who they kill it’ll make their intentions and playstyles clearer.
2: By staying silent, I believe we will give them less ammo to try and play a mind game with us on the night kill. Also by no lynching it gives them less ammo on implicating someone based on a night kill. In other words we can try and limit their offensive options when they enter in the night kill.
3: We keep our civ population at the highest it can be, given our current situation. If we enter DAY 3 at 6/2 then we can try lynching based on the night kill info plus prior thread information. We won’t get any new information out of this day phase. If we were to go through the entire game playing the same way then we’d possibly have skewed daytime information.
Cons
1: Weird numbers shakedown if we misslynch day 3 plus a night kill. We’ll be 4/2 going into day 4 and in a lynch or lose situation or forced to no lynch again if we want to extend the game.
2: It’s stalling for time and we’re not getting any closer to hitting mafia in the short term.
3: Takes some of the possible enjoyment out of the game by squeezing some of the fun out by going silent during night phase.
Can anyone provide a rebuttal to this plan, or a possible revision to it so it’s more efficient? *
*For what it’s worth Saitsu is my leading suspect but I have 2 reasons for not wanting to jump on him right away. I have a minor gut feeling that him and Godot is civs, they’re just awkward players. Up to this point they have been playing a very similar game with very similar logic. But the reason my bead is on Saitsu instead of Godot is because of this:
vs Saitsu who said this:
This lead me to believe either neither of them, or one of them is mafia. If I had to pick one of them it would be Saitsu due to the fact that he threw Godot under the bus while Godot had Saitsu at his midway point. Additionally Godot is acknowleding that they both are very similar while Saitsu is trying to distance himself away from Godot. *
I’ll be honest, I think this plan is the worst strategy we can possibly follow. Currently, assuming we lynch, we get three bad lynches before we lose. If we no lynch, we get two bad lynches before we lose. Looking for info is great, but mathematically speaking, continuing to lynch is our best chance. I can break down the math for you if you REALLY want, but in purely qualitative terms, you can think of it this way: our lynches are the only means we have to take down the mafia, and we have to use them as much as we can, even when we’re not sure about the outcome. The only way we would do this is if we think we could make a gdlk read based on any info we get in the new phase. I don’t have enough faith in my own abilities, or in our collective ability, to do that.
There is no “weird numbers shakedown.” Today we’re at 7-2. Three bad lynches get us to 1-2, and we’re toast. If we don’t lynch today, tomorrow we’re at 6-2, and two bad lynches get us down to 2-2, and we’re similarly toast. The same amount of time will have passed, except in the latter scenario, we’ve failed to use one of the few chances to have to get rid of mafia.
Yeah, you’re absolutely right. What the hell was I thinking? That’s a huge caveat and a fatal oversight on my part. I didn’t get that much rest due to a headache I had but that, even in my mind, is no excuse to propose such a huge blunder. I deserve all the suspicion I get for that mistake, for better or worse. *
You missed my vote earlier ago (I think about 2 pages ago at the start of the day phase)
Lynch: GodotsRevenge
Also, I’ll let you all know right now that lynching me will bring us closer to losing. If the mafia did purposely use the LG block on Azure, it may be because it was either he was onto them, or it could be a distraction.
I wish I could put more input with what we got here, but right now I got nothing.
I think if I’m not mistaken, I’m in the lead to die at 2, correct? It’ll suck if I’m taken out because it won’t help us and it’ll only hinder us in the long run, but I don’t mind being lynched.
90 minutes to go, and four people still have to vote? Fishy… I think mafia might try to force a tie vote in the closing minutes. People, get your votes in!!!