Let me clarify something real quick. I don’t know how much I’m allowed to say regarding their identities. The card says I simply can’t reveal their identities but I’m still waiting for further details from Hecatom. So for the time being, I can’t do anything, directly or possibly otherwise.
Forge I believe the ability for expeditions is “4 to 6 groups”, not “groups of 4 to 6” so that tactic when there are 8 or 12 players left alive wouldn’t work, they’d still need to be split up into 4-6 groups.
On the topic of expeditions I haven’t changed my stance. We have an advantage. Let’s say I make 6 groups and the Mafia get lucky and destroy an entire group. That’s up to 4 possibly roled civilians that could die in one phase. On the other hand, our best case scenario is Eren kills a TItan, Armin finds a shifter, and Levi/Mikasa kill an attacking Titan. That requires two separate players to make great decisions and the Mafia as a whole to make an unwise one. Yes, it could technically almost win us the game in one phase but it could also put us into a position where we lose 4 roles in one phase. More than that the expedition likely won’t have any substantial results. Armin might get a Shifter check, but they could be Dormant civs. Levi or Mikasa might be in a squad that’s attacked, but it could be the Female Titan and the rest die anyway, telling the Mafia exactly who Levi/Mikasa are. This last part could change based on clarification.
I don’t have much of anything right now so I can’t support any lynch. And with just about 14 hours left before deadline we need to address this now. Going into night phase the Titans choose two of three options: Kill, Investigate, Recruit. We have to choose one of these three: Medic, UC, Shifter-UC. I’m ignoring the “protect the walls” thing because it doesn’t matter yet as the Armored Titan can’t attack until the third Night or second Night after an expedition. It’s very unlikely that the Mafia will blindly recruit, both because there’s a high chance it won’t do anything and the small chance of a third of their team getting instakilled by Eren. Therefore, the Mafia will kill someone they think is a civilian power role and investigate someone they think is a non-Lover Dormant. They have only those options and then the wall shenanigans, which Hannes almost completely takes care of while he’s alive.
@GodotsRevenge we can’t do 6 groups of 3 each, that’s only 18. There are 24 players, not counting myself, so you’re off by exactly 6. And what if those “little casualties” include Hannes? I can guarantee you won’t be killed at night in that instance. Or what if it’s Hange? No Last Gasp means no Investigation results, nullifying a large portion of her usefulness. No Medic means if a role survives an attack they’re almost definitely going to be the next night kill target.
@Hecatom if Levi or Mikasa are in a group that’s attacked by the Female Titan she survives, but do the other members of the group die?
