I haven’t been watching it, but I’m in the process of storing all of the posts made thus far for my records. You posted at around 11am Australian time on my “weekend”. So yes, this is the optimal time to reach me.
I’m curious too. Pimp may be busy with work IRL but this just isn’t how he normally handles D1.
You’re on my “I like what I see, do more of it” list.
No, I suggested early expeditions as a strategy under the assumption that we could chain the phases. That’s pretty much the hinge point. Now that I know that we can’t do that I’m less enthusiastic.
My second post, the one that lists the strengths of each role in relation to my plan?
Dormants claiming so they can be lynched has practically zero downsides to us as civilians. Other than losing a +1 civilian we are depriving mafia of reinforcements. And’ it’s a favourable lynch over a roleless or rolled civilian.
PW “locking in” early isn’t new. He’s done this before.
Ok. Yes, the second post.
22 civ/3 mafia can turn to 16/3 after lynching the dormants and the night kills…vs range between 16/6 to 21/0. So you are a sure thing type of player?
So I should assume they will be revealed unless Hecatom says otherwise right?
Icege and Dnyce have yet to participate.
In addition to silent tracking, I am also noting how long it took everyone to post after the first page. Recessiontime is the only one who popped up page 3.
And for the record, I’m not going to start an expedition unless I see a good reason to, or I believe it helps the civilians more than the Mafia. As much as I’d like to experiment with the concept I believe keeping it 21/3 for the moment (if Mafia recruit randomly there’s a 1/21 chance the recruiter dies and a 3/21 chance they actually gain an ally) is significantly more advantageous. At the same time most of our abilities going into expedition phase are reactive and just serve to nullify theirs, Eren & Armin being the exceptions, and we give up the UC/Medic for a limited Vigi and limited Shifter-UC. I know we have the advantage right now, we have to play to “not lose”, so there’s no reason to take unnecessary risks for unnecessary rewards.
School started up for me, and my schedule this semester is mostly morning (class starts at 7 and I commute) to early afternoon, so I won’t be online as late as I usually am. This (10:45 local time) is probably the latest I’ll stay up during the week. In a way I’m pretty lucky I got the confirmed civ, unlynchable, unkillable role so now I don’t have to waste time coming up with defences. All out offense. It worked pretty well for Sano at least.
@Synonym can you make sure Alpha didn’t off himself out of pure hate or something, he’s been awfully quiet ever since he made that post about Hecatom being #2 on his list.
I don’t really see a huge benefit to an expedition this soon either, but I also see it this way. If we did an expedition early, we are most likely going in with all of the good expedition roles still intact. As opposed to going in way later when we might have already lost some of the four power roles due to a bad lynch or a mafia kill. Like I said earlier it’s very high risk/very high reward. Pretty much the exact same way it is in the show(though tbh they never really benefit in the series).
We MIGHT be able to knock a titan or discover the female by chance. Getting either would deliver us a significant beginning lead, and with everybody around we have the best chances of not as many people dying.
Worst case scenario IMO is this. Armin, Hange, or Hannes die from the Colossal or Armored Titan. I dont really have to worry about Eren, since I trust Fuzz would place him in the same group as Levi for insurance purposes. The thing is though, that with Mikasa around there is a good chance to have her in the same group as those aforementioned 3. I’m talking in circles trying to get my point across because I feel a verbal explanation would serve better, so basically this. The earlier the expedition, the higher the probability of it being fruitful upon return. I’m an optimist so maybe my judgement is clouded. But thats how I see it.
People Discussing Game Mechanics
The Co-Jones
Synonym
ForgeDigger
TGG (Fuck you I’m never typing your full name out ever again after Arena)
Pimp Willy
DarkGeneral
jasonC
Exodus.
GodotsRevenge
Skizzz
People Discussing Lynch Targets
TGG
Skizzz
DukeC
Combo_Knight
Pimp Willy
jasonC
Augustus
People That Have Posted Without Discussing Either
Blindknagg
orochizoolander
LordWilliam1234
Cyntalan
RECESSIONTIME
Bious
The Chief
-People keep saying possible 6 total Mafia, it’s actually 7.
-Synonym posting plans with obvious flaws. Not Mafia behaviour, trying to find players that will call him out on it.
-DukeC shitposting.
-Augustus against discussing game mechanics.
-jasonC [REDACTED]. Probably [REDACTED].
-RadicalFuzz [REDACTED].
-Behavioural tendencies widely ignored.
I agree with what seems to be the majority opinion. Expeditions are useful, I just don’t see them being insanely advantageous to use the first chance we get. We can wait to exploit this. Try to think about how overpowered this could be if we just exploit it endgame, assuming none of the 4 expedition powers die. Consider a bad scenario: 5 civs and 3 mafia. Expedition. 2 groups of 4. If the mafia attack either one, they could possibly lose everything. Regardless of whether they attack or not, Armin can find mafias in his group. If he didn’t find any, then obviously they were all in the other group. Etc, etc, etc. I mean sure it’s a stretch, but it’s a much bigger game changer in this situation.
Another note:
I hate to say this, but perhaps Augustus might have been right. I get that this talk of mechanics as far as expeditions is important, but we also might want to shift gears more towards what to do for lynching options for the day. If we wait too much longer, rash decision-making could ensue.
Don’t construe this to mean that think Augustus is innocent. Quite the opposite actually. In fact, he’s my probably candidate for my vote.
Alpha if I get lynched because of that pony business in the NGNL game I’ll put you as #1 on my list.
[details=Spoiler]List Of People Who Have Managed To Get Me Lynched #1 Nobody
[/details]
Thanks but there’s still a few more days left on it :sad:
Anyway I think that someone asked what would happen if the group that was attacked contained one of the titans/mafia in it so I went back to read up on it and found this (bolded part).
I couldn’t find if this includes the 3 main titans (fem/arm/colossal) so I assume that it does which means that the only ones to survive an attack are two(four if we count the aces) of our power roles.
The medic would get someone to protect if he’s still alive by then and doesn’t feel that he’ll have to investigate instead, and we also get a cleared civ if it works this way.
But it would also give mafia a target for their night kill if our medic dies and they have a 50% chance that it’s Eren so they’ll probably stay away from recruiting him?
Mafia will try to win with recruiting since its easier than killing, the number one priority for both teams is finding the dormants, and assuming dormants don’t know who they are or even how many exist this game will have a lot of coin flip kills
Since Erwin can’t name Levi directly, would it be too risky then for him to name a group of players which may or may not include Levi and claim them to be off limits for a time? protecting a potential mafia or dormant might be worth protecting Levi, but the risk is giving mafia a way to role hunt Levi easily by going through the list which is why Erwin should be ambiguous on whether or not Levi is in the list giving mafia a list that doesn’t include Levi ensures he lives for a while assuming they take the bait.
@Synonym I agree Hange should be racking up as many investigations as he can, this game will boil down to racing the clock whichever side finds the dormants first will most likely win. That being said with regard to Hange being night killed when should he reveal himself? Unless I’m mistaken Hange does get a last gasp, so he can always spill the results there, but role claiming carries the benefit of being able to somehow stay alive and continue to investigate and it doesn’t say that as medic Hange can’t protect himself at night.
As for AC’s plan first I need some clarification, in the sign up thread OP @Hecat0m said there are no lynches or mafia night kills, s why does female titan description say “if she attacks group during expedition” is that a por unrelated to the standard mafia night kill? Assuming mafia can’t kill at all during expedition phase, we have our vigilante who can so chaining multiple expedition phases works out in our favor, assuming the information gathering on both sides is equal. We should really think about all the pros and cons before committing, with all the loopholes we seem to find every game these plans always have unforeseen consequences.
@jasonC yeah I agree, this game is all about information accumulation, keeping titans away from dormants is more important than outright killing them especially since the chances of that now are statistically low as fuck. I can’t support any plan without knowing all it’s risks and rewards.
So I’d like some opinions to get the ball rolling: What do mafia have to gain and lose from multiple expedition phases?
@GodotsRevenge Why exactly do you say we should save expeditions for late game only? No reasoning was given so I’d like clarification of your thought process please.
@RadicalFuzz do me a favor and re read @XthAtGAm3RGuYX posts carefully, I suspect him and only him during this early phase and if you’re in agreement with me we can get him lynched and no I’m not locked.
