SRK MAFIA XVII - ATTACK ON TITAN:End of Day 8 - The Grim Reminder (Civilians lose!)

[Combo_Knight]

Yo, I’m in here, I’m just satisfying my FF14 craving now that they got this free week going.

[The_Chief]

I know Duke. I skimmed ahead to see if anyone else picked up on what I was thinking before I posted. I wasn’t insinuating that you made a mistake.

There has to be a hole in this. As much as I’m against rc’s, locking the mafia down to 3 players sounds broken. I like broken.

The problem that I could see with this is the dormants not wanting to go along with it. Since we do not have the ability (as far as I can tell), to kill all three dormants before the mafia get a chance to recruit them, the mafia would be able to convert either 1 or 2 depending on the lynch order (on day 2 if we lynch the unconverted one they get 1 converted, otherwise they get 2). Those converted people would then be on the losing team (lets be real, if we can’t win starting at 17-3 with a cleared civ, we should just quit mafia forever).

If I were a dormant, I couldn’t see myself agreeing to straight 50/50 on winning or losing the game depending on who the mafia picks to convert first.

Yeah, it all depends on who the dormants are, how interested they are in playing and who they think has the best advantage to win.

If they feel mafia is more poised to win with 3 people, then it’s pointless for mafia to recruit anyway.

[XthAtGAm3RGuYX]

Still 6 silent players. 5 if you wanna get technical and just say that SAD is implied.

[Augustus]

That said, Augustus’ post rubbed me in a weird direction. The phrase “Ready to win” puts me off a bit. It almost suggests to me that he feels at some kind of disadvantage. More importantly, everybody has been calm so far, but he seems eager to do something.

Ooh~

Anyway, you guys can carry on talking about the game mechanics. To be honest, I don’t like them very much so I won’t get involved in the discussion. I’m just going to sit back and read people.

[XthAtGAm3RGuYX]

Also are roles revealed upon death like in Arena? I’m assuming that doesnt happen so as to keep the mafia count a guessing game.

That said, Augustus’ post rubbed me in a weird direction. The phrase “Ready to win” puts me off a bit. It almost suggests to me that he feels at some kind of disadvantage. More importantly, everybody has been calm so far, but he seems eager to do something.

Ooh~

Anyway, you guys can carry on talking about the game mechanics. To be honest, I don’t like them very much so I won’t get involved in the discussion. I’m just going to sit back and read people.

Your response has been noted in my chart.

I’m debating showing you all my chart/notes before every night phase write up in the event that I die. I always have a contingency plan, but there isn’t any room for secrecy here. On one hand it would inform all the civs of points they might not have noticed, but on the other it would show the mafia their points of suspicion allowing them to adapt and change how they act.

[Hecatom]

Very very good point cynt, I totally hadn’t considered that as a possibility. Really everyone should do it, so we don’t run into any potential problems where all the people who are holding the old posts die (unless they can include them in their last gasps).

Also, Hecatom‌ do both lovers find out when the mafia try to recruit the dormant one?

Only the dormant

[DukeC]

Also are roles revealed upon death like in Arena? I’m assuming that doesnt happen so as to keep the mafia count a guessing game.

That said, Augustus’ post rubbed me in a weird direction. The phrase “Ready to win” puts me off a bit. It almost suggests to me that he feels at some kind of disadvantage. More importantly, everybody has been calm so far, but he seems eager to do something.

Ooh~

Anyway, you guys can carry on talking about the game mechanics. To be honest, I don’t like them very much so I won’t get involved in the discussion. I’m just going to sit back and read people.

Your response has been noted in my chart.

I’m debating showing you all my chart/notes before every night phase write up in the event that I die. I always have a contingency plan, but there isn’t any room for secrecy here. On one hand it would inform all the civs of points they might not have noticed, but on the other it would show the mafia their points of suspicion allowing them to adapt and change how they act.

Eh. No one can really change how they act. It’s why if you start off wallflowering and it continues past Day 2 you better do it for the rest of the game.

By the way has Godots posted?

[DukeC]

Never mind. Godots did post.

All that’s left to wait for is for Alpha to pull an Alpha.

[XthAtGAm3RGuYX]

Also are roles revealed upon death like in Arena? I’m assuming that doesnt happen so as to keep the mafia count a guessing game.

That said, Augustus’ post rubbed me in a weird direction. The phrase “Ready to win” puts me off a bit. It almost suggests to me that he feels at some kind of disadvantage. More importantly, everybody has been calm so far, but he seems eager to do something.

Ooh~

Anyway, you guys can carry on talking about the game mechanics. To be honest, I don’t like them very much so I won’t get involved in the discussion. I’m just going to sit back and read people.

Your response has been noted in my chart.

I’m debating showing you all my chart/notes before every night phase write up in the event that I die. I always have a contingency plan, but there isn’t any room for secrecy here. On one hand it would inform all the civs of points they might not have noticed, but on the other it would show the mafia their points of suspicion allowing them to adapt and change how they act.

Eh. No one can really change how they act. It’s why if you start off wallflowering and it continues past Day 2 you better do it for the rest of the game.

By the way has Godots posted?

Yes Godot has.

I’ll update my list from earlier.
Combo_knight First post page 2
Dnyce
DukeC First post page 2
Recessiontime
SAD
Icege

Anyone without a strikethrough has not posted.

[XthAtGAm3RGuYX]

Fucked up the list update. Don’t want to look like an idiot

Combo_knight Page 2
Dnyce
DukeCPage 2
Recessiontime
SAD
Icege
Bious
The Chief Page 2

[Bious]

Lynch RadicalFuzz

[Blindknagg]

Bious please.

[XthAtGAm3RGuYX]

Lynch RadicalFuzz

Lol well there’s one more off the list.

In about an hour I’m heading off to college. I’ll catch up on any thread happenings when I get back. Still here for now though.

[DarkGeneral]

Ok, so I’m exhausted after 12 hours of nonstop work so here are my thoughts on the roles. They’re forming the basis of my expedition plan, and I hope to flesh them out once I’ve had some sleep.

Erwin: Does he get sent on expeditions? If not, that’s -1 to possible mafia.
Levi: Any group with him in it is guaranteed to survive. 2/3 titans risk death by attacking, thus ensuring that mafia is likely to use female titan. No downside to him protecting group.
Eren: Can kill someone in his expedition group. Not ideal by any means. What is good is his passive if his group is hit by the female titan. If the female titan hits his group, we lose at a maximum 5 players but gain the identity of 1/3 of the mafia (currently).
Assuming mafia are using the female titan, that’s now 3 PR that would be a bad match-up for the mafia to face against.
Mikasa: Identity unknown; her role change isn’t ideal as gaining a vigi but losing her Ace is a big loss for us. Her presence is a great counter to the mafia.
Armin: Unless the vigi has killed during expedition, his results will be 100% accurate. His results are not impacted by medic protections, nor can he be enforced or forged. He will also survive if the female titan attacks a group he’s in, learning her identity.
That’s now 4 PR,that pose a direct threat to mafia by their very existence. Potentially, that means that there could be 4 alliances that will either 100% survive an attack by the female titan, or that will 100% ensure the female titan’s death.
Hange: Not 100% clear on her role. The way I understand it, she needs to specify whether the target she’s investigating is a dormant or mafia much the same as the fortune teller role. Less useful than I originally thought. Also, I’m not sure whether her abilities are the same during expedition. Ideally, they would be.
Hannes: His ability is pointless if we’re on expedition but I agree with AC that if we are in the village that he should protect at night.
Lovers: The dormant in this pair technically means that there are 4 dormants in play. However, this pairing is very strong for the civilians if the pair play it properly. There really isn’t a downside to this pair role claiming if they need to. If the human lover is killed by mafia, civs gain a vigi. If mafia kills the dormant they deprive themselves of a potential recruit. The worst possible action we could do is lynch them. And, if someone role claims and there is a counter claim we narrow down the mafia, because I will not support a lover claim unless their partner is also willing to claim. With that, we either get 2 100% civilians that mafia don’t want to touch or we net ourselves 2/3 of the mafia.
Dormants: Firstly, I need to stop typing them as doormats. I’m 99.9999999% positive that dormants will have been told of their affiliation. The existence of a role card belies that assumption. That means we have 3 (or four counting the lover) people who are ticking time bombs if we handle them badly. Luckily for us, it is a two-step process for mafia to recruit them. And, as long as our vigi hasn’t killed any civilians, our UC results will be 100% accurate with regards to dormants. Now, if dormants decide to try and get recruited by mafia, to save the mafia the hassle of finding them with an investigation, then we should be able to spot it in the thread. Also, if mafia do decide to attack, the existence of these extra 3 dormants brings the number of PR deterrents to 9/19 which is nearly 50% of our available player base. Not a terrible situation to be in, right? Especially if we keep to four groups.

Another feature is that I’m guessing mafia will survive if the titan attacks the party they’re in? If not, then mafia will avoid killing groups they’re in like the plague and we can systematically root them out. If they do survive they join a shortlist immediately of potential mafia.

I’m cool with Synonym’s plan, but I do have a point of interest regarding it.

If the Lovers role claim, wouldn’t that make the investigation pool for the mafia very easy? They would already know the circle of players they need to investigate to find the dormants. While it would help us confirm civs, it would also speed up their recruitment process tremendously. Having 6 mafia right off the bat would be a very early pain in the ass.

Investigation pool is still fairly substantial: 19 possible investigations, 3 dormants. That’s still less than a 1/6 chance of mafia finding someone. Then they’d need to recruit the following night. Plus, if there are no kills submitted we’ll know that mafia are hunting for recruits.

That’s a question I should have asked earlier. Will mafia be more likely to try and recruit early on, or to try and kill. Knowing that they get two night actions, does it make sense for them to investigate and kill, or investigate and recruit, with the hopes that their investigation target is a dormant.

You’re basically risking 1/4 to 1/6 of our players on day 1, and exposing the mafia to find their dormant members, on day 1?

I dunno man, that seems pretty fucking risky to me. Granted, I may be misunderstanding the rules, but Fuzzy splits us into groups, and the mafia gets to kill an entire group of people in one action, correct?

It means mafia are forced to decide between playing a shell game to try and kill a decent number of players, or being forced to investigate/recruit with their single action. It also eliminates any possibility of a double kill. Refer to my thoughts on the PR above to see that it’s not like that. There are 4 PR that act as deterrents to the mafia. Also, if we’re on expedition early before mafia have had a chance to recruit then mafia risk whiping out all of their recruits as well when they attack. Dormants aren’t immune after all.

• From how Erwins rolecard is worded it seems like he’s an immortal role. He can’t die/get lynched/killed, he’s essentially our immortal leader. He plans the expeditions and knows 2 of our most important roles and comes up with our strategies when we go on expedition.

Our Aces, Levi and Mikasa, kills every titan that assaults the group they’re in, except female titan.

@Hecatom‌ are dormant titans essentially roleless or do some of them have abilities?

Armin/Hange are our investigative roles. How Zoe’s rollcard is worded might mean that she investigates nights only. Armin might be the only one able to check players during expedition. Hopefully @Hecatom‌ can clarify whether Zoe can use her abilities while she’s in an expedition or now.

Hannes seems like carpenter to me. Even if Titans attack the wall during the day they get 2 uses of it. Plus if we weren’t in expedition the day before we can expedition the day after and nullify it.

As for the Lovers I’m undecided on your plan to have them RC. If the Lovers RC then the titans get more or less 2 nights to find their target within the Lovers group. We have an easy countermeasure to prevent the dormant from turning in putting him in the group with Eren and letting Eren take care of him. The problem with that is that not every person here would be willing to make that sacrifice. That essentially shortens that persons lifespan. Plus we make it that much easier for the titans to find Eren.

We could potentially use Zoe to protect the Human lover but that ties up her abilities. *

[Combo_Knight]

*Updating in between Raids.

I am Innocent you all are guilty I.

I am too weak as Mafia to be considered recruit-able as all my mafia tendencies are easily exploitable and predictable and I am way too transparent.

CK’s Kenshi Hunches:

Bious

Gamerguy

Augustus

Dark General

and Synonym

3 out of the five have a role.
*

[Hecatom]

Ok, so I’m exhausted after 12 hours of nonstop work so here are my thoughts on the roles. They’re forming the basis of my expedition plan, and I hope to flesh them out once I’ve had some sleep.

Erwin: Does he get sent on expeditions? If not, that’s -1 to possible mafia.
Levi: Any group with him in it is guaranteed to survive. 2/3 titans risk death by attacking, thus ensuring that mafia is likely to use female titan. No downside to him protecting group.
Eren: Can kill someone in his expedition group. Not ideal by any means. What is good is his passive if his group is hit by the female titan. If the female titan hits his group, we lose at a maximum 5 players but gain the identity of 1/3 of the mafia (currently).
Assuming mafia are using the female titan, that’s now 3 PR that would be a bad match-up for the mafia to face against.
Mikasa: Identity unknown; her role change isn’t ideal as gaining a vigi but losing her Ace is a big loss for us. Her presence is a great counter to the mafia.
Armin: Unless the vigi has killed during expedition, his results will be 100% accurate. His results are not impacted by medic protections, nor can he be enforced or forged. He will also survive if the female titan attacks a group he’s in, learning her identity.
That’s now 4 PR,that pose a direct threat to mafia by their very existence. Potentially, that means that there could be 4 alliances that will either 100% survive an attack by the female titan, or that will 100% ensure the female titan’s death.
Hange: Not 100% clear on her role. The way I understand it, she needs to specify whether the target she’s investigating is a dormant or mafia much the same as the fortune teller role. Less useful than I originally thought. Also, I’m not sure whether her abilities are the same during expedition. Ideally, they would be.
Hannes: His ability is pointless if we’re on expedition but I agree with AC that if we are in the village that he should protect at night.
Lovers: The dormant in this pair technically means that there are 4 dormants in play. However, this pairing is very strong for the civilians if the pair play it properly. There really isn’t a downside to this pair role claiming if they need to. If the human lover is killed by mafia, civs gain a vigi. If mafia kills the dormant they deprive themselves of a potential recruit. The worst possible action we could do is lynch them. And, if someone role claims and there is a counter claim we narrow down the mafia, because I will not support a lover claim unless their partner is also willing to claim. With that, we either get 2 100% civilians that mafia don’t want to touch or we net ourselves 2/3 of the mafia.
Dormants: Firstly, I need to stop typing them as doormats. I’m 99.9999999% positive that dormants will have been told of their affiliation. The existence of a role card belies that assumption. That means we have 3 (or four counting the lover) people who are ticking time bombs if we handle them badly. Luckily for us, it is a two-step process for mafia to recruit them. And, as long as our vigi hasn’t killed any civilians, our UC results will be 100% accurate with regards to dormants. Now, if dormants decide to try and get recruited by mafia, to save the mafia the hassle of finding them with an investigation, then we should be able to spot it in the thread. Also, if mafia do decide to attack, the existence of these extra 3 dormants brings the number of PR deterrents to 9/19 which is nearly 50% of our available player base. Not a terrible situation to be in, right? Especially if we keep to four groups.

Another feature is that I’m guessing mafia will survive if the titan attacks the party they’re in? If not, then mafia will avoid killing groups they’re in like the plague and we can systematically root them out. If they do survive they join a shortlist immediately of potential mafia.

I’m cool with Synonym’s plan, but I do have a point of interest regarding it.

If the Lovers role claim, wouldn’t that make the investigation pool for the mafia very easy? They would already know the circle of players they need to investigate to find the dormants. While it would help us confirm civs, it would also speed up their recruitment process tremendously. Having 6 mafia right off the bat would be a very early pain in the ass.

Investigation pool is still fairly substantial: 19 possible investigations, 3 dormants. That’s still less than a 1/6 chance of mafia finding someone. Then they’d need to recruit the following night. Plus, if there are no kills submitted we’ll know that mafia are hunting for recruits.

That’s a question I should have asked earlier. Will mafia be more likely to try and recruit early on, or to try and kill. Knowing that they get two night actions, does it make sense for them to investigate and kill, or investigate and recruit, with the hopes that their investigation target is a dormant.

You’re basically risking 1/4 to 1/6 of our players on day 1, and exposing the mafia to find their dormant members, on day 1?

I dunno man, that seems pretty fucking risky to me. Granted, I may be misunderstanding the rules, but Fuzzy splits us into groups, and the mafia gets to kill an entire group of people in one action, correct?

It means mafia are forced to decide between playing a shell game to try and kill a decent number of players, or being forced to investigate/recruit with their single action. It also eliminates any possibility of a double kill. Refer to my thoughts on the PR above to see that it’s not like that. There are 4 PR that act as deterrents to the mafia. Also, if we’re on expedition early before mafia have had a chance to recruit then mafia risk whiping out all of their recruits as well when they attack. Dormants aren’t immune after all.

• From how Erwins rolecard is worded it seems like he’s an immortal role. He can’t die/get lynched/killed, he’s essentially our immortal leader. He plans the expeditions and knows 2 of our most important roles and comes up with our strategies when we go on expedition.

Our Aces, Levi and Mikasa, kills every titan that assaults the group they’re in, except female titan.

Hecatom‌ are dormant titans essentially roleless or do some of them have abilities?

Armin/Hange are our investigative roles. How Zoe’s rollcard is worded might mean that she investigates nights only. Armin might be the only one able to check players during expedition. Hopefully @Hecatom‌ can clarify whether Zoe can use her abilities while she’s in an expedition or now.

Hannes seems like carpenter to me. Even if Titans attack the wall during the day they get 2 uses of it. Plus if we weren’t in expedition the day before we can expedition the day after and nullify it.

As for the Lovers I’m undecided on your plan to have them RC. If the Lovers RC then the titans get more or less 2 nights to find their target within the Lovers group. We have an easy countermeasure to prevent the dormant from turning in putting him in the group with Eren and letting Eren take care of him. The problem with that is that not every person here would be willing to make that sacrifice. That essentially shortens that persons lifespan. Plus we make it that much easier for the titans to find Eren.

We could potentially use Zoe to protect the Human lover but that ties up her abilities. *

They are roleless

[DukeC]

*Updating in between Raids.

I am Innocent you all are guilty I.

I am too weak as Mafia to be considered recruit-able as all my mafia tendencies are easily exploitable and predictable and I am way too transparent.

CK’s Kenshi Hunches:

Bious

Gamerguy

Augustus

Dark General

and Synonym

3 out of the five have a role.
*

Welp. Hey Zues Christ. That was bad. You should feel bad. You are now number 1 CK. You didn’t even say they were mafia, but that they just had roles. Rolehunting so early…

Also, list is so suspect for not having SAD on there. Everyone knows SAD always gets a role SMH.

[Sumazndude]

I guess without a power role this time, I still have to do something because people be watching

Checking in~

Just in time because my College classes start tomorrow… Thanks Hecatom

When does this day phase end? I never saw it, I may have missed it

[XthAtGAm3RGuYX]

The fuck is a Kenshi Hunch?

[Skizzz]

*Updating in between Raids.

I am Innocent you all are guilty I.

I am too weak as Mafia to be considered recruit-able as all my mafia tendencies are easily exploitable and predictable and I am way too transparent.

CK’s Kenshi Hunches:

Bious

Gamerguy

Augustus

Dark General

and Synonym

3 out of the five have a role.
*