I’m also a fucking idiot. I for some reason misunderstood and thought that there being 3 dormants means there a 6 lover pairs with a dormant in each. Where as there is actually only one lover pair and other miscellaneous dormant civs. Regardless, a lover role claim is still pretty much a free mafia reinforcement once they figure out which is which and kill off the other.
*Checking in.
@Hecatom
Can we do an Expedition Phase every day without a cooldown?
Depending on the answer, the plan that Syn brought up could have more holes in it. Or it can have even more strong points than the initial ones that Syn brought up. Expedition can be an incredible powerful tool for us that help limit the Titans options. *
Alright so I’m just stopping by here to check in, I’m on my way to bed though.
After I wake up tomorrow and get on transit to work I’ll reread the setup and try to wrap my head around the whole expedition thing. I don’t really understand it yet.
I missed this post earlier. I dont think we can really reveal roles without painting targets on people with key roles. For instance if somebody revealed that they were Mikasa, Fuzz could use that to his advantage for formation strategy in expedition groups, but Mikasa would also be a likely night time kill to get rid of an ace. Or they could off a revealed Hange to get rid of our investigator so on and so forth.
I know this game doesnt completely fall to civs with abilities since regulars can lynch mafia, but it’s best to keep our sharpest tools around as long as possible.
I agree with PW that going on an expedition this early is too much of a gamble, especially while the fem titan is still alive.
Who was the previous #2?
Bious.
IMO, biggest con to expedition now would be the Mafia having a chance to find their dormants much quicker. There’s even a chance that Fuzz puts all the dormants unknowingly into the same group and Mafia investigates that group and discovers them all.
However, to BK’s point, there’s also a chance that we could discover the female titan identity early on if we do expedition.
Interesting mechanic.
Hey Hecatom, what’s Hannes description/ability on his role card? The last sentence looks fucked up.
Oh right she’s discovered if she attacks the group with Eren/Armin in it, I missed that part. I’m still mostly against it this early though.
Ok, so I’m exhausted after 12 hours of nonstop work so here are my thoughts on the roles. They’re forming the basis of my expedition plan, and I hope to flesh them out once I’ve had some sleep.
Erwin: Does he get sent on expeditions? If not, that’s -1 to possible mafia.
Levi: Any group with him in it is guaranteed to survive. 2/3 titans risk death by attacking, thus ensuring that mafia is likely to use female titan. No downside to him protecting group.
Eren: Can kill someone in his expedition group. Not ideal by any means. What is good is his passive if his group is hit by the female titan. If the female titan hits his group, we lose at a maximum 5 players but gain the identity of 1/3 of the mafia (currently).
Assuming mafia are using the female titan, that’s now 3 PR that would be a bad match-up for the mafia to face against.
Mikasa: Identity unknown; her role change isn’t ideal as gaining a vigi but losing her Ace is a big loss for us. Her presence is a great counter to the mafia.
Armin: Unless the vigi has killed during expedition, his results will be 100% accurate. His results are not impacted by medic protections, nor can he be enforced or forged. He will also survive if the female titan attacks a group he’s in, learning her identity.
That’s now 4 PR,that pose a direct threat to mafia by their very existence. Potentially, that means that there could be 4 alliances that will either 100% survive an attack by the female titan, or that will 100% ensure the female titan’s death.
Hange: Not 100% clear on her role. The way I understand it, she needs to specify whether the target she’s investigating is a dormant or mafia much the same as the fortune teller role. Less useful than I originally thought. Also, I’m not sure whether her abilities are the same during expedition. Ideally, they would be.
Hannes: His ability is pointless if we’re on expedition but I agree with AC that if we are in the village that he should protect at night.
Lovers: The dormant in this pair technically means that there are 4 dormants in play. However, this pairing is very strong for the civilians if the pair play it properly. There really isn’t a downside to this pair role claiming if they need to. If the human lover is killed by mafia, civs gain a vigi. If mafia kills the dormant they deprive themselves of a potential recruit. The worst possible action we could do is lynch them. And, if someone role claims and there is a counter claim we narrow down the mafia, because I will not support a lover claim unless their partner is also willing to claim. With that, we either get 2 100% civilians that mafia don’t want to touch or we net ourselves 2/3 of the mafia.
Dormants: Firstly, I need to stop typing them as doormats. I’m 99.9999999% positive that dormants will have been told of their affiliation. The existence of a role card belies that assumption. That means we have 3 (or four counting the lover) people who are ticking time bombs if we handle them badly. Luckily for us, it is a two-step process for mafia to recruit them. And, as long as our vigi hasn’t killed any civilians, our UC results will be 100% accurate with regards to dormants. Now, if dormants decide to try and get recruited by mafia, to save the mafia the hassle of finding them with an investigation, then we should be able to spot it in the thread. Also, if mafia do decide to attack, the existence of these extra 3 dormants brings the number of PR deterrents to 9/19 which is nearly 50% of our available player base. Not a terrible situation to be in, right? Especially if we keep to four groups.
Another feature is that I’m guessing mafia will survive if the titan attacks the party they’re in? If not, then mafia will avoid killing groups they’re in like the plague and we can systematically root them out. If they do survive they join a shortlist immediately of potential mafia.
Investigation pool is still fairly substantial: 19 possible investigations, 3 dormants. That’s still less than a 1/6 chance of mafia finding someone. Then they’d need to recruit the following night. Plus, if there are no kills submitted we’ll know that mafia are hunting for recruits.
That’s a question I should have asked earlier. Will mafia be more likely to try and recruit early on, or to try and kill. Knowing that they get two night actions, does it make sense for them to investigate and kill, or investigate and recruit, with the hopes that their investigation target is a dormant.
It means mafia are forced to decide between playing a shell game to try and kill a decent number of players, or being forced to investigate/recruit with their single action. It also eliminates any possibility of a double kill. Refer to my thoughts on the PR above to see that it’s not like that. There are 4 PR that act as deterrents to the mafia. Also, if we’re on expedition early before mafia have had a chance to recruit then mafia risk whiping out all of their recruits as well when they attack. Dormants aren’t immune after all.
@ForgeDigger im just happy somebody got it :tup:
I say wait on expidetion phase for a better opportunity or at least until female titan is dead. I think the titans would be able to learn more from thw results of expidetion than civs. Especially compared to what we would learn during a day phase (even though, fuck day one)
No, you can’t.
The last part is a left over of another role, i will fix it when i get at home tonight
It’s begun, I see. Time to prove last game was a fluke. 
Expeditions looks better as a late game tactic, we should stick to lynches until we have a small group of people left.
An early expedition does seem to have it’s civ advantages though. Assuming that the Aces, Eren, and Armin are in different groups, it is likely that we could kill either the armored or colossal titan, and that we might reveal the identity of the female. Only problem is that fuzz could only guarantee effectiveness of two of those groups since he only knows Eren and Levi. So it is high probability the expedition will not have maximum effectiveness.
It also looks like the majority of our special roles have abilities pertaining to an expedition phase. 2 can instant kill, 2 can survive an attack and learn identity of female. So that is 4 expedition abilities. Hange and Zoe are most useful while in the city. Dormants and the Lovers aren’t particularly useful in any light.
I also just thought of something @Hecatom
I know that if the female attacks a group with an Ace she can survive, but what happens if she attacks a group that has both Levi and Mikasa in it? Does the instant kill ability stack and kill her? Or does she survive anyway? Also is the female titans ability to survive a chance roll with a probability for failure, or is it guaranteed survival every time? I’m just trying to figure out if the only way we can kill her is by discovering her identity and lynching, or if we can kill can get lucky and kill her during expedition anyway.
So the way that I see this setup is that we are massively favored if we just don’t go on expeditions. Yes we do lose the effectiveness of a bunch of our PR’s, but if you look at the role setup with just day/night cycles its
A Unkillable, mod confirmed civ (who might be able to confirm 2 more depending on what the restrictions on what he can say about the other two are)
A Medic/Seer
A Pseudo-Carpenter (I agree with whoever said that they should always protect walls at night)
A Pair of Lovers (I think this role is broken too, I’ll elaborate in a bit)
versus
3 Mafia, who can stop lynch twice, and after carpenter is dead, get 2 night kills every third night (Assuming I read that properly)
and 3 Lost Wolves, who if we don’t go on expeditions, the mafia team only gets one check a night for. (Which I believe would force the lost wolves to signal, which can be found by us)
This seems like it would be really hard to lose. Even if all 3 dormants started as mafia, I don’t think this setup would be mafia favored.
What role is the Unkillable Skizzz? I dont know all the vanilla mafia terms yet.
Also does Hannes really have to be dead for mafia to get two night actions? In the signup thread it simply says they get 2 with no context or rules regarding it.
Erwin (Fuzz) is the unkillable. It’s a super powerful role, and we ran good in having a strong player get it.
Hannes has to be dead in order for the mafia to get two nightkills. They do always get 2 actions, but as long as he is alive they can’t kill with both of them. From the signup thread:
So for the lovers, Synonym touched on it earlier, but I feel like if the human lover just claims near the beginning of the game, we will have another confirmed town voice with the mafia having to give us a permanent vigi if they kill him.
Unless the dormant lover can get recruited after the mafia night kill the human lover. @Hecatom is that possible? and if so, does the dormant lover keep the vigi power?