SRK MAFIA XIII: SRK Vs. The End of the World -- Apocalypse Now? (GAME OVER - CIVILIANS WIN)

[ForgeDigger]

I’m off to bed.

I’m willing to lynch anyone on that fluff list of yours, PW, minus bloodymess.

[Manx]

My posts are only clean because there’s nobody here to go in on yet, once somebody makes a stupid check in post and is all like “oh hey guys wow 3 pages already I have to read to catch up” then I’ll be getting dirty lol

. . . I forgot about this bulllshit here.

[GodotsRevenge]

Point 2: It allows <Icege> the possibility of psuedo-protecting two targets a night, which can screw with a Mafia very quickly. Think of the Mafia as a team, discussing how to beat the Civilians. Their primary goal is to kill as many players as possible to where their numbers match ours. Their secondary goal is to kill players in such a way as to prolong their own survival. If <SWB> role claims and asks for Medic protection the Mafia is faced with a difficult choice: Risk a protected kill and go for <Beta> or go for a night kill that might be protected anyway. Of course <Icege> will be held accountable for his actions, be they successful or not, that’s not anything different.

I’d rather not willingly put myself in a fully preventable 50/50 mix-up.

[Sumazndude]

I think there may be a few Aussies on the mafia, what are the chances there aren’t? Kill all Aussies!

On a different note, a lot of those negatives can be spun as positives.

1. This role claim nearly guarantees us a mafia, outside of something crazy like mafia managing to kill the medic in time, which would be bad either way

2. Icege may be locked in, but we know his protection is leading us to GOOD. It’s not blocking the UC, it’s not protecting mafia, etc

3. It ties up one resource, Icege, into guaranteeing his role works in our favor

4. This of course is a possibility, but I think you’re overreaching a bit. If <SWBeta> is known, that doesn’t suddenly put other roles magically at risk. I’m not sure I buy this point. If <SWBeta> is known, couldn’t the same logic be applied to sniff out Mafia and how they interact with the known player?

5. We continue to play, knowing that day 3 we are gonna end up a mafia name, and continue doing what we’re doing? I… don’t understand this being a negative?

Like I said, there was a 1/3 chance that <RadicalFuzz> got one of our civilian roles pre-game. There is every chance that he didn’t, but it’s still a possibility and the odds are high enough that I’m willing to factor that into my decision making.

His protection is leading us to… good? At what expense? If we have the medic feeling obligated to stick out the course and protect <SWBeta>, what happens if our UC eats it, or our vigi? I feel that the mystery surrounding the medic role is one of our greatest assets. It forces the mafia to tread lightly, and allows us much more confidence that our UC or Vigi might live to see a new day.

Knowing that this may get me lynched, I still feel the need to say it. Why does SWBeta need to role claim in the first place? Are we so certain that mafia are going to hit him in the first three days? Shouldn’t our Vigi or Carpenter claim then, since their roles are arguably more important? I understand that, should <Icege> die those roles would be lost to us immediately. I just don’t understand why everyone is so confident that <SWBeta> will be killed in the first three days. As long as they’re not openly role claiming, mafia has to make their own reads and try to weed them out.

It’s a lot easier when you’re on the team that has less unknown variables. Mafia already know who their faction is, so that means they’re only looking for role clues. As a civilian, you have to identify those clues, then distinguish between mafia and roled civilians. It’s much more complex.

Look, it’s not a horrible strategy but it’s not amazing either. It means that all of our more important, long-term roles are without medic protection for at least the first three night phases.

I kind of see where you’re going with this, reading this in your point of view, it makes whoever wants <SWBeta> to RC look suspicious IMO. But, assuming we DO follow through, Medic basically eliminates the possibility of interfering with UC/Vigi but, <SWBeta> doesn’t really need to RC right off the bat or not even RC rather.
If we don’t follow through, Medic has the possibility of interfering with UC/Vigi. I now see that most of the plans you guys come up with can really go either way (which seems suspicious to me)…
But, what can we do if we do nothing? It’s just a matter of whether we follow through with it or not.

[RadicalFuzz]

Point 2: It allows <Icege> the possibility of psuedo-protecting two targets a night, which can screw with a Mafia very quickly. Think of the Mafia as a team, discussing how to beat the Civilians. Their primary goal is to kill as many players as possible to where their numbers match ours. Their secondary goal is to kill players in such a way as to prolong their own survival. If <SWB> role claims and asks for Medic protection the Mafia is faced with a difficult choice: Risk a protected kill and go for <Beta> or go for a night kill that might be protected anyway. Of course <Icege> will be held accountable for his actions, be they successful or not, that’s not anything different.

I’d rather not willingly put myself in a fully preventable 50/50 mix-up.

Waht?

[Sumazndude]

Point 2: It allows <Icege> the possibility of psuedo-protecting two targets a night, which can screw with a Mafia very quickly. Think of the Mafia as a team, discussing how to beat the Civilians. Their primary goal is to kill as many players as possible to where their numbers match ours. Their secondary goal is to kill players in such a way as to prolong their own survival. If <SWB> role claims and asks for Medic protection the Mafia is faced with a difficult choice: Risk a protected kill and go for <Beta> or go for a night kill that might be protected anyway. Of course <Icege> will be held accountable for his actions, be they successful or not, that’s not anything different.

I’d rather not willingly put myself in a fully preventable 50/50 mix-up.

Waht?

no, that’s mine

[GodotsRevenge]

Point 2: It allows <Icege> the possibility of psuedo-protecting two targets a night, which can screw with a Mafia very quickly. Think of the Mafia as a team, discussing how to beat the Civilians. Their primary goal is to kill as many players as possible to where their numbers match ours. Their secondary goal is to kill players in such a way as to prolong their own survival. If <SWB> role claims and asks for Medic protection the Mafia is faced with a difficult choice: Risk a protected kill and go for <Beta> or go for a night kill that might be protected anyway. Of course <Icege> will be held accountable for his actions, be they successful or not, that’s not anything different.

I’d rather not willingly put myself in a fully preventable 50/50 mix-up.

Waht?

It was a fighting game analogy. I may be stupid, but I wouldn’t be stupid enough to role-claim

Spoiler

Day 1

[The_Chief]

DarkGeneral don’t leave! I was gonna ask you if you were role-hunting.

DarkGeneral always leaves when I want to chat with him. =(

Just got in, I’m catching up with the thread.

Why do I always get asked if I’m role hunting when I propose a plan or question? Does it really look like I’m either:

A: Mafia trying to openly and brazenly role hunt.

B: A silly enough civ that would throw out a tactic that is detrimental to the civ cause.

Role-hunting openly is obviously stupid. Discussing actions for roles is the sneaky way to do it.

That’s why I posed the question to you. You’re smart enough to know that SWBeta would be a priority for mafia to kill. So in my opinion, he should be the least talked about to help him hide. Too late for that given how your proposed plan has transformed in to 4 pages of deliberation. So, me, I decided to stick with my initial opinion regarding the discussions source.

Why would you put a key role for us at risk then leave… then come back with nothing more to add to your idea.

I hope your response isn’t going to be something like “I was just throwing the idea out there” because that doesn’t sound like something a civ should do.

[bloodymess]

We go through this every game, if you wanna break the trend, you’re probably gonna need to explain why.

Here’s the argument cycle

We’re gonna lynch a civ, mafia hardly ever gets lynched day 1

• well if we no lynch, we go into day 2 with no info and 1 less civ*
  But at least we don’t lynch a civ and hit a role
  Yeah but we give up the only power in the game we have, lynch
  So you’re saying never no lynch?
  No, you only no lynch mid to late game when it really helps, not early game when people are expendable

etc etc

The fewer civilians we have, the less room for error we have. It might give more baggage for the UC/Medic to carry around yet on the flip side there’s more junk that mafia have to dig through. We’re not giving up the power to lynch- with that logic, every night that the vigilante doesn’t make a kill he’s giving up his power to vig. We’re refraining from acting reckless lynches based on rather shaky speculations or gut feeling. And nobody’s truly expendable until mid/late game.

Why do I always get asked if I’m role hunting when I propose a plan or question? Does it really look like I’m either:

A: Mafia trying to openly and brazenly role hunt.

B: A silly enough civ that would throw out a tactic that is detrimental to the civ cause.

Clearly the solution is to just not say anything. It did wonders for SAD and he was MVP last game.

[RadicalFuzz]

.

We go through this every game, if you wanna break the trend, you’re probably gonna need to explain why.

Here’s the argument cycle

We’re gonna lynch a civ, mafia hardly ever gets lynched day 1

• well if we no lynch, we go into day 2 with no info and 1 less civ*
  But at least we don’t lynch a civ and hit a role
  Yeah but we give up the only power in the game we have, lynch
  So you’re saying never no lynch?
  No, you only no lynch mid to late game when it really helps, not early game when people are expendable

etc etc

The fewer civilians we have, the less room for error we have. It might give more baggage for the UC/Medic to carry around yet on the flip side there’s more junk that mafia have to dig through. We’re not giving up the power to lynch- with that logic, every night that the vigilante doesn’t make a kill he’s giving up his power to vig. We’re refraining from acting reckless lynches based on rather shaky speculations or gut feeling. And nobody’s truly expendable until mid/late game.

The fewer people are lynched, the less information we have. I’m not suggesting lynching just to kill someone of course, I’m saying that smart lynching Day 1 can be better than No Lynching Day 1.

[DarkGeneral]

Checking in and catching up.

On DG’s plan, I am hesitant as ever about role claims this early in-game, much less having the medic tied up for three days. DG always has some plan early game that seems to be his mode of getting info/introducing broken techs, so I kinda want to hear the thought process behind this one.

*Certainly.

My initial thought process was that [Kaz] is already set up for failure. But getting lynched on day 4 is not as early as it first looked to me. That’s a lot of time for the mafia to try and nab [SWB], I’d like to increase the odds on us getting [Kaz] in the most efficient way possible. Moreover we gain an early confirmed civ, I don’t know about you guys, but I like having a confirmed civ since it takes out an unknown and give us civs a voice we can trust. There’s another perk here but I don’t want to tip off mafia.

There’s also another flaw/con but I’m not sure if I want to speak on it right now. In fact it’s a flaw in this plan that I’m frankly surprised no one has brung up or talked about. Actually no, 1 person has eluded to it and because he has he’s earning a sliver of my trust.
*

[AlphaCommando]

Fluff is acting differently this game. We should lynch him.

[RadicalFuzz]

[quote=“DarkGeneral, post:171, topic:166735”]

Actually no, 1 person has eluded to it and because he has he’s earning a sliver of my trust.
*

Aha, you said “he” so you might not be referring to Forge. At this rate I’ll know your allegiance by next game!

[RadicalFuzz]

Fluff is acting differently this game. We should lynch him.

Remember the RE game? You know, the one where I acted a bit differently like always but was lynched Day 1. Yeah, not gonna happen this time.

[Pimp_Willy]

I think there may be a few Aussies on the mafia, what are the chances there aren’t? Kill all Aussies!

On a different note, a lot of those negatives can be spun as positives.

1. This role claim nearly guarantees us a mafia, outside of something crazy like mafia managing to kill the medic in time, which would be bad either way

2. Icege may be locked in, but we know his protection is leading us to GOOD. It’s not blocking the UC, it’s not protecting mafia, etc

3. It ties up one resource, Icege, into guaranteeing his role works in our favor

4. This of course is a possibility, but I think you’re overreaching a bit. If <SWBeta> is known, that doesn’t suddenly put other roles magically at risk. I’m not sure I buy this point. If <SWBeta> is known, couldn’t the same logic be applied to sniff out Mafia and how they interact with the known player?

5. We continue to play, knowing that day 3 we are gonna end up a mafia name, and continue doing what we’re doing? I… don’t understand this being a negative?

Like I said, there was a 1/3 chance that <RadicalFuzz> got one of our civilian roles pre-game. There is every chance that he didn’t, but it’s still a possibility and the odds are high enough that I’m willing to factor that into my decision making.

His protection is leading us to… good? At what expense? If we have the medic feeling obligated to stick out the course and protect <SWBeta>, what happens if our UC eats it, or our vigi? I feel that the mystery surrounding the medic role is one of our greatest assets. It forces the mafia to tread lightly, and allows us much more confidence that our UC or Vigi might live to see a new day.

Knowing that this may get me lynched, I still feel the need to say it. Why does SWBeta need to role claim in the first place? Are we so certain that mafia are going to hit him in the first three days? Shouldn’t our Vigi or Carpenter claim then, since their roles are arguably more important? I understand that, should <Icege> die those roles would be lost to us immediately. I just don’t understand why everyone is so confident that <SWBeta> will be killed in the first three days. As long as they’re not openly role claiming, mafia has to make their own reads and try to weed them out.

It’s a lot easier when you’re on the team that has less unknown variables. Mafia already know who their faction is, so that means they’re only looking for role clues. As a civilian, you have to identify those clues, then distinguish between mafia and roled civilians. It’s much more complex.

Look, it’s not a horrible strategy but it’s not amazing either. It means that all of our more important, long-term roles are without medic protection for at least the first three night phases.

At its simplest, the plan basically mafia needs to get 2 kills within 3 nights (Medic then SWBeta), rather than 1 kill within 3 nights. To me, this plan is pretty safe. I understand people are concerned about it, but the chances of mafia getting to kill 2 different people in 3 nights makes it pretty much a miracle.

I do agree though, and I said it before, I think most likely that <SWBeta> survives even without the “witness protection program.” If we look at it just from mafia kills being random, thats a 3/25 chance they will hit <SWBeta>. If we factor in vigi, that’s 6/25 chance (nearly 25% chance). If we add in lynches, thats 9/25 chance. Of course if they are going to be lynched, they just role claim and THEN get the protection, so I think the 9/25 is inflated quite a bit. The real chance is somewhere around 25%.

Did Mafia really have a 33% chance to get a civ role with <RadicalFuzz>? 8/25, yeah I guess it’s pretty close to 33%. Damn that’s higher than I thought.

So we basically are looking at somewhere between a 12% and 25% chance that <SWBeta> gets killed, and we can erase that to damn near 100%.

The question is, is it worth it to guarantee that name? It’s just 1 name that the mafia will surely be distancing themself from anyway

[AlphaCommando]

Fluff is acting differently this game. We should lynch him.

Remember the RE game? You know, the one where I acted a bit differently like always but was lynched Day 1. Yeah, not gonna happen this time.

This is different.

[RadicalFuzz]

Fluff is acting differently this game. We should lynch him.

Remember the RE game? You know, the one where I acted a bit differently like always but was lynched Day 1. Yeah, not gonna happen this time.

This is different.

It is different. I’m not going to lie down in front of the lynch wagon this go round, that was my biggest regret from the RE game. I will fight you. Think you can take me on?

[AlphaCommando]

Fluff is acting differently this game. We should lynch him.

Remember the RE game? You know, the one where I acted a bit differently like always but was lynched Day 1. Yeah, not gonna happen this time.

This is different.

It is different. I’m not going to lie down in front of the lynch wagon this go round, that was my biggest regret from the RE game. I will fight you. Think you can take me on?

u wanna fukn 1v1 me kent? ill reck u m8

[AlphaCommando]

There’s also another flaw/con but I’m not sure if I want to speak on it right now. In fact it’s a flaw in this plan that I’m frankly surprised no one has brung up or talked about. Actually no, 1 person has eluded to it and because he has he’s earning a sliver of my trust.
*

[INCOMING SCRAMBLES FROM PLAYERS TRYING TO FIND THE FLAW TO GAIN TRUST]

[RadicalFuzz]

Fluff is acting differently this game. We should lynch him.

Remember the RE game? You know, the one where I acted a bit differently like always but was lynched Day 1. Yeah, not gonna happen this time.

This is different.

It is different. I’m not going to lie down in front of the lynch wagon this go round, that was my biggest regret from the RE game. I will fight you. Think you can take me on?

u wanna fukn 1v1 me kent? ill reck u m8

You jest, but I’m dead serious. If you push for my lynch I’ll push back for yours. And I’ll win.