SRK MAFIA XIII: SRK Vs. The End of the World -- Apocalypse Now? (GAME OVER - CIVILIANS WIN)

General Discussion
141

Ok, on the <SWBeta> role claim plan I had a number of issues with it to begin with. Some have already been brought up, but these are my thoughts on the matter.

  1. Are we really implementing the ‘let’s just make someone role claim to get easy mafia points’ clause again? I know it’s hypocritical since the bytches reigned supreme but seriously, our first choice is to get someone to role claim? (Oh god, I’m sounding like Chief. Better get my LG ready).

  2. Not only does this give mafia the potential for knowing 2/8 of our important civilian roles (assuming RF hit one, and there was a 33.33% chance that he did), but it essentially forces, or at least attempts to, those individuals holding those roles to comply. <Icege> is locked-in to protect <SWBeta>, and should they go for a yomi play and fail, they will be blamed.

  3. It ties up our resources. Refer to point two, but also this. Co-ordination between roles would pay the following results:

Pro’s:
-Less chance of <The Chief>'s investigation being blocked if he knows where <Icege>'s attention is focused.
-Less chance of <Soviet> wasting a night kill on a protected target.
-Potentially stand to gain the name of one mafia member by Day 3.

Con’s:
-Mafia get a roadmap of who to not target, completely nullifying the advantage any medic has in these games.
-If <kaz> is killed before night 3 then we don’t get an alternative mafia’s name. We essentially have a confirmed civilian with a now defunct role that we either need to keep protecting or cast out to the mafia’s tender embrace.

  1. This is the big one. I’m going to bold it for emphasis. If I were mafia, here’s how I would use <SWBeta> role claiming to my teams advantage. (lol i’m guilty lynch Cinnamon) I personally like to look for a few things in-thread when I know a role, or have a role suspicion. I look for interactions, things like avoiding points raised by the individual, responding to them more than others etc. (you’re not getting the good ones). These can usually help lead me back to other roles. If I was mafia, giving me a confirmed starting place would be a godsend.

And finally #5: What do we do until Day 3? Twiddle our thumbs? I personally wouldn’t advocate the plan, when it costs us so much, just to gain one mafia’s name by Day 3.

142

Not sure if…

I’d also like her to explain the odds statement.

‘If you think about it, though, what are the odds that there isn’t at least one “big name” on the mafia?’ is about as logically sound as saying 'If you think about it, though, what are the odds that there isn’t at least one “Southerner” on the mafia?

143

@pietastic this is the kinda stuff I hoped to provoke, not the one-liners for or against it that most people go with. Syn put forth logical reasons (an ordered list, no less) stating his opinion about the plan. Now we have this information for the rest of the game.

@ Captain Crunch
No, this plan isn’t for points, that’d be retarded. It’s to protect a player that will get a specific Mafia’s name so we can then lynch him.
And about your fourth point, <Beta> would have no knowledge that a roleless civilian wouldn’t possess. I can see that thought process working for the UC or other investigative roles, but you’re gonna have to cough up a bit more reasoning on that point if you want me to believe it’s a factor. That’s for post game though, don’t want to give the Mafiasoso any ideas now :tup:

144

@DarkGeneral it’s 11 EST and Chief misses you, where you at?

@Vynce I didn’t realize how much I missed playing Mafia with you until now :rofl:

145

Not necessarily you playing for easy points, but people supporting this plan blindly with no consideration of its wider implications.

I would like to hear your thoughts on points 2 & 3 though.

To explain the last one, it’s not <SWBeta>'s knowledge that I would use, it’s the roles around him. <Icege>, having to follow this plan, would leave clues. Same with a UC who knows they don’t need to investigate <SWBeta> and a vigi who is steering clear of them.

146

wat
no

147

I think there may be a few Aussies on the mafia, what are the chances there aren’t? Kill all Aussies!

On a different note, a lot of those negatives can be spun as positives.

  1. This role claim nearly guarantees us a mafia, outside of something crazy like mafia managing to kill the medic in time, which would be bad either way

  2. Icege may be locked in, but we know his protection is leading us to GOOD. It’s not blocking the UC, it’s not protecting mafia, etc

  3. It ties up one resource, Icege, into guaranteeing his role works in our favor

  4. This of course is a possibility, but I think you’re overreaching a bit. If <SWBeta> is known, that doesn’t suddenly put other roles magically at risk. I’m not sure I buy this point. If <SWBeta> is known, couldn’t the same logic be applied to sniff out Mafia and how they interact with the known player?

  5. We continue to play, knowing that day 3 we are gonna end up a mafia name, and continue doing what we’re doing? I… don’t understand this being a negative?

148

Okay, turns out I’ve got internet hooked into my apartment room. Let’s see what I’ve missed.

If calling for a no lynch is worth a lynch vote- well it shouldn’t be. And from the way you hopped on Augustus like a cat in heat makes me suspect you more so than the others, Lando. And to be frank, the checking in theory is Scientology Tier retardation. It can become more relevant as the game drags on and said players start becoming less of a presence but basing it off day one lynches is questionable at best.

Right now I’m only seeing ~7 other names attempting to make a scene, either from this Fuzz-Chief-Kaz hate-threeway or the lynch wagon on Fuzz. If we really DO want to make some successful lynches we’re better off not thinning our numbers arbitrarily and making it easier for mafia to pick us off one by one. I mean Christ, we don’t want to force any roleclaims and potentially fuck over the doctor/suspect/carpenter/witness/spy do we?

149

I always check in a bit late in the day phase, especially since there’s barely any info to work with. There’s 3 whole pages that I don’t wanna go back to read, but I’m gonna do it regardless.

150

We go through this every game, if you wanna break the trend, you’re probably gonna need to explain why.

Here’s the argument cycle

We’re gonna lynch a civ, mafia hardly ever gets lynched day 1

  • well if we no lynch, we go into day 2 with no info and 1 less civ*
    But at least we don’t lynch a civ and hit a role
    Yeah but we give up the only power in the game we have, lynch
    So you’re saying never no lynch?
    No, you only no lynch mid to late game when it really helps, not early game when people are expendable

etc etc

151

>barely any info
>too many pages

Pick one.

152

Like I said, there was a 1/3 chance that <RadicalFuzz> got one of our civilian roles pre-game. There is every chance that he didn’t, but it’s still a possibility and the odds are high enough that I’m willing to factor that into my decision making.

His protection is leading us to… good? At what expense? If we have the medic feeling obligated to stick out the course and protect <SWBeta>, what happens if our UC eats it, or our vigi? I feel that the mystery surrounding the medic role is one of our greatest assets. It forces the mafia to tread lightly, and allows us much more confidence that our UC or Vigi might live to see a new day.

Knowing that this may get me lynched, I still feel the need to say it. Why does SWBeta need to role claim in the first place? Are we so certain that mafia are going to hit him in the first three days? Shouldn’t our Vigi or Carpenter claim then, since their roles are arguably more important? I understand that, should <Icege> die those roles would be lost to us immediately. I just don’t understand why everyone is so confident that <SWBeta> will be killed in the first three days. As long as they’re not openly role claiming, mafia has to make their own reads and try to weed them out.

It’s a lot easier when you’re on the team that has less unknown variables. Mafia already know who their faction is, so that means they’re only looking for role clues. As a civilian, you have to identify those clues, then distinguish between mafia and roled civilians. It’s much more complex.

Look, it’s not a horrible strategy but it’s not amazing either. It means that all of our more important, long-term roles are without medic protection for at least the first three night phases.

153

I think zoolander has a point here. If we make sure that we allow the Carpenter to role claim, we give an opening to the Mafia in case they are about to be lynched.

As I am typing this out I realize how stupid that is and that there is a way around that, but I refuse to delete the sentences that took me an entire five seconds making. I will not destroy my hard work.

Carpenter, if you are about to be lynched, role claim. The night afterwards, have the Vigi kill him. That way the Mafia can’t role-claim carpenter pointlessly, and the Mafia don’t get the extra kill that night. How does that sound?

Fuck, I need to brainstorm before I start writing these things out. If we do this, the Mafia practically get a second kill because they know which civilian is going to die and when.

Wow, typing this really helps me think. Huh.

I guess there are pros and cons to every situation here. They kinda balance each other out too.

Now this entire thing has been completely meaningless. I’m going to make a pro-con list to make it seem like this post is worth something.

1. Forbidding the Carpenter from role-claiming:
+Zero Escape route for Mafia if they are about to be lynched
+Delaying the inevitable death of the Carpenter
-Mafia get to do an extra kill that night
-We kill a civ

2. Allowing the Carpenter to role-claim:
+We don’t have to lynch a civ
+We get another opportunity to lynch a Mafia
-Mafia can say they’re Carpenter if they are about to be lynched

Writing that out, I realize that letting the Carpenter role-claim doesn’t have as many consequences that I can think of. And now that I think about it, from the Carpenter’s viewpoint the first option is ass. Zoolander, I retract my statement. Forbidding the Carpenter from role-claiming is idiotic.

And now thanks to the little Devil’s Advocate in me, all of this really was worthless. Posting this anyways so the topic doesn’t come up again.

154

Both. The small bits of info may be buried within the pages.

155

SRK Mafia: Hyper Role-Claim Edition

Mafia is narrowing down who is NOT Icege and who is NOT SWBeta as this discussion drags on…

If beta dies before night 3, a lot of names are being put under my microscope. Not really a lot but at least 3.

156

Thanks for correcting me.

How do you take notes on a Vigi who didn’t make reads in public?

157

WTF? 4 pages already?

Good thing I already read most of it. :tup:

158

Just got in, I’m catching up with the thread.

Why do I always get asked if I’m role hunting when I propose a plan or question? Does it really look like I’m either:

A: Mafia trying to openly and brazenly role hunt.

B: A silly enough civ that would throw out a tactic that is detrimental to the civ cause.

159

Point 2: It allows <Icege> the possibility of psuedo-protecting two targets a night, which can screw with a Mafia very quickly. Think of the Mafia as a team, discussing how to beat the Civilians. Their primary goal is to kill as many players as possible to where their numbers match ours. Their secondary goal is to kill players in such a way as to prolong their own survival. If <SWB> role claims and asks for Medic protection the Mafia is faced with a difficult choice: Risk a protected kill and go for <Beta> or go for a night kill that might be protected anyway. Of course <Icege> will be held accountable for his actions, be they successful or not, that’s not anything different.

Point 3: It may tie up our resources on one person or it may not, depending on how ballsy <Icege> feels at the time. And IMO the pros outweigh the cons. If the Mafia are going to commit to not targeting <Beta> then that allows <Icege> to protect others, with a slightly higher chance to successfully protect to boot. If <Kaz> dies before Night 3 then the “to protect or not to protect” mindgame is extended until <Beta> dies. We stand to gain a Mafia, a confirmed civilian, and several mindgame opportunities. Unfortunately, the mindgames apply to our roles as well.

  1. There is no Fuzz-Chief-Kaz hate-threeway. If anything pie & I are the ones going at it

  2. Lynching <MP> wouldn’t be ideal, but it’d be pretty good for us, hence why his role prevents him from roleclaiming and still receiving the information upon death

  3. Statistically we have a roughly equal chance of lynching Mafia as we do civilian roles

  4. Lynching someone gives information. Lack of information is the reason we accidentally lynch civilians. I’d rather have one less civilian and more information for the rest of the game than have one more person that may or may not help us win and less information

160

You first, pls. c:

Common curtesy. Come on now, where’s your manners?

But seriously, it’s probably the same reason you did.