If we don’t go through with the plan and the Mafia gets lucky and kills the Medic then we’ve lost the Medic, one of the most important roles in the game, regardless.
Journal Entry 3
January 14th, 2014
It has begun adapting to better fit into our society. Will continue to monitor any changes.
We both know that’s not how you do things. What’s your angle?
Leaving for classes until roughly 9:30 CST in a minute
And then they’re still scrambling to find Beta to avoid a guaranteed kill.
Using the unholy power of math
30 players minus 6 mafia equals 24
1/24 is 4.2% for a likelihood of nabbing someone night one. Assuming vig isn’t a complete twat and keeps composure, those odds boost to 1/21 (Since presumably someone will be leading a lynch because retards) which is still 4.7%.
They’d be trying to scramble for a kill that has a success rate of 5%. And if they are successful, they’ll have wasted their time on a single relative non-power role. I’m not trying to downplay the original plan by saying this, more that if they try it’d largely be a waste of time.
Also if <kaz> or <bious> RCs <SWB> would lead to a 1:1 trade in our, the town’s, favor. They get <SWB> and we get <kaz> or <bious> the 2nd best way for <SWB>'s role to turn out. [details=Spoiler]Better obviously if <SWB> lives till night 3 and is then able to point in the direction of <kaz> and avoid suspicion from the mafia at the same time.[/details]
I’m still for <SWB> claiming though it might be better to wait to see what the night 1 kill is to make sure <RF> didn’t hit <icege> pregame.
Nice write up, MP. Where’d you get that picture of me?
Now to work: There are definitely pros and cons to the whole <SWB>-<Icege> plan. On the plus side, we would learn the identity of a confirmed mafia day 3. This would get the ball rolling and could potentially lead to the lynching of another mafia. It would also almost guarantee that <Icege> wouldn’t botch <The Chief>'s investigation. Because <SWB>'s ability is passive and can’t be enforced by da bes mafia role (<ForgeDigger>), it would appear that all systems are go for this plan to work.
However, I feel like some people (Fuzzy especially) are neglecting the fact that this will only work ceteris paribus (if nothing else changes). You also have to take into account the human factor of fault, Murphy’s Law, and the mafia’s response to this plan. Before <SWB> were to go ahead with this plan, I implore you to think about any possibility we may be overlooking here. Is there anything at all that could happen between now and Day 3 that could potentially ruin this plan?
There’s the obvious problem, which would be <Icege> dying, forgetting/missing the chance to submit a night action or getting enforced. But is that all we have to lose from this endeavor? We also have to worry about the fact that if <Icege>'s attention is focused elsewhere, the mafia’s got full freedom to kill whoever they want.
That said, I think we should worry about this later. Don’t we need some lynch candidates?
You said you played mostly epicmafia before this, correct? I realize that night phase is done first in that game setting (which is interesting and gets rid of the whole “day 1 lynch” debate), but we have the pleasure of making our move first. I used to think that no lynching was a good idea too until I realized that we learn absolutely nothing from it. We’ve got to get the ball rolling. If we lynch day 1, the patterns that would otherwise form later into the game begin forming.
I wanna try something here. Lynch RadicalFuzz.
I’ll help.
Lynch RadicalFuzz
I thought the “Lynch RadicalFuzz” train was just a tongue in cheek thing, but you guys are serious. I’m still waiting for a day 1 slip up that I can pounce on and use for the rest of the game
Vynce, our stat holds true. We have a 100% win rate we we play the same game on the same team.
That’s why I know for a fact that Vynce wouldn’t lie to me. Even if he did lie to me I’d believe it even if he confirmed it was a lie and had proof. So Vince is clean because he said he said so. Period. I will not entertain this discussion any further.
Fuzz is suspect even if we forget pregame and just go off of Vynces opinion alone.
Lynch: RadicalFuzz
…because Vynce.
I’m not locked in. RF can’t even reasonably defend himself given my criteria for suspecting him. That said, I wouldn’t rule out someone who proved to be suspicious.
I’m currently using the same flawed logic that lead me to HAX, GDR, and MP before them.
Did you find Radical_Edward_2 account or something?
Eh? Niggas be starting games without me and I feel sick as is…
Get ready for the shenanigans I guess?
Yeah, night comes first on EM. It worked like that on a couple of forum games as well, though there had also been games starting during day phases. Even then, most would vie for a no lynch. The few times I have seen a successful day one lynch are few and far between, and may only force the target to roleclaim. Jumping the gun without prior knowledge is IMO one of the worst mistakes town can make.
Hi. Just dropping in to like the OP.
DaRabidDuckie’s last gasp:
Yeah, but gaining any sort of knowledge while doing away with any potential dead weight is better than sitting on our thumbs wasting the Day 1 Phase.
Only thing RF has done that’s relatively suspicious is soft-rolefish. His defenses are admittedly pretty poor, though.
Also thank you Forge for reminding me that Icege blocks investigations. Leaning slightly toward Beta RC.
This is actually what I was looking for.
Still can’t flag this guys post for abuse…
Sorry to interrupt the bro moment, but I don’t understand Vynces logic, isn’t it straight gamblers fallacy? RF is due for a mafia spot because he hadn’t had one since… Vynce was mafia last time too? Seems a little silly of a logic jump to me.
I agree he seems off, but I’m not ready to gun down a big name day 1, I’d rather wait for the mafia to handle that. If RF is clean, we’ll just be doing them a favor and taking out big targets for them. That makes me more likely to be the night kill. I like having RF around as a buffer, so to speak!
I’d rather lynch some of these few “checking in but not saying anything” people. At least Bloodymess came back to post even if he basically posted exactly what I said I was looking for in an opening post to jump on.
Shinkuu, manx, and to a lesser extent Augustus, OZ and BD all pulled the same thing. Why bother posting a “checking in?” It always seems mafia to make a post like that to me
So much for moving on, eh? My points were that at one point (and that’s at one point, I understand you have now recanted) you implied that <Icege> had to RC for this to work. Later, you confidently asserted that there was no way this plan could be interfered with, and I offered a counter-argument that ended up wrong. (I’m explicitly admitting this. I was wrong, but I queried MP to make sure we got a final answer.) Point being, though, you didn’t know it was wrong either, and you’re just insisting you’re right rather than thinking critically about your own statements. Now, you’re voting to lynch me based on that interaction, and trying to ensure that the plan you’re so hellbent on following comes to fruition. Not really a strong civ play… civs, working together as a team, should be actively looking for holes in one another’s logic so we sew up any ways the mafia might exploit us.
I’m still undecided on whether or not we should follow the plan. But rather than bang my dick on the table and offer an immutable stance, I’m looking to moving the discussion forward, informing my fellow civs, and making an informed decision together.