I’ll give you $20 if you can roll a 3 on a six-sided die. You get two chances. Do you have a 1/6 chance of winning the $20? Or 1/3?
No. Once Promoted, they are locked into that role.
There is an asterisk that clarifies this, he gets their role Inconclusive is only for roleless and the initial 6 mafia.
Fortune Teller I moved to the same tier as Assassinate, so that shows it goes After a bite, but still goes off if she is killed that night.
I also updated some terminology that was confusing people (Took initiate off Van Helsing, updated Detective and Witch cards) to make things more consistent. I also added the quotes that came with each assigned role, so it can’t be used to role claim.
This was gone over already, and is actually added to the bite description for awhile:
11/36
Yep. Not quite 1/3, but close. So using the same logic, I think the mayor sequester strategy yields a decent chance we block a promotion. Right?
Doesn’t that also mean we have a 50% chance of locking one of the leaders up with both recruits? Then does that mean… we have a 100% chance of locking one of the leaders up with one of their recruits?
Whelp, shitty maths is the international sign for ‘it’s almost 4am and you need sleep’. The separation plan seems logical, but my brain can’t do the numbers right now.
Yeah, I’ve noticed. But with numbers having the potential to shift dramatically in one day ( loosing up to five characters a night…six if Van is a douche bag ) and with mafia not being able to really do anything on the first night, the no-lynch in this game would make more scene. For the record, I’m not so much suggesting it as trying to see what everybody’s thoughts are on the subject.
Yeah, but it was easier just to say fifty. If you do layman’s math then there’s actually a pretty good chance at stopping at least one considering the fact that even if you only separate one initiate from the leader…the leader still has to make the right guess as to which one he can promote. The chances of randomly putting all three of one faction in the town house are next to none, so you would at least be some hindrance to them.
I think it’s really closer to like 66% to at least block one of the two promotions, but that analysis is half-baked as well. Regardless, I think that’s the way to go if you’re the mayor. Take half the niggas in here randomly and put them in the TH, unless somebody has a better plan.
Right, it’s no additive but it’s close with diminishing returns. Like if there were 4 factions, we wouldn’t magically get a 100% success rate. In any case, this is the best course of action I’ve heard for the mayor to date.
I don’t understand the die part. Obviously the first roll is 1/6, but the second roll is more complicated. It goes off the 5/6 chance that you didn’t roll a 3 the first time and then factors in the 1/6 chance of rolling a 3. However, that’d be 6/36, or 1/6, which isn’t the answer. Stuff like this has always bugged me, mind explaining it to me?
On topic, even if we only isolate one underling from the boss, that forces the boss to only have one person available to promote. We have to remember that individual players are going to be considered when analyzing what role would be suitable for them. I think it’s worth it, unless the below returns true.
PW, if two of the “Lovers” roles, like Jailer & Soldier, are on opposite ends of the wall can they still communicate via PM? Can the Mafia?
The Mayor’s ability is used during the daytime. When it changes to night the names of everyone in Town Hall are publicly declared, so there’s no guessing game there.
@RadicalFuzz You add two independent events. You have a 100% chance at rolling the first time, and your chance of succeeding in that roll is 1/6. You have a 5/6 chance of needing the second roll. In that roll, you also have a 1/6 chance in winning. Overall:
((1) * 1/6) + ((5/6)*(1/6)) = 11/36.
3 out of 27 are of the same faction. split 26 ( mayor should know he’s a civ at this point ) into 13. If odds control the outcome, you’ll get 1.5 faction members in or out of the building together. In other words, you’re going to get at least one of the faction members away from his faction. And that goes for both factions. The chances of all three members of either faction ending up together after splitting the whole group in two would be like taking a 13 sided die and rolling a one, two and three in succession. In other words it’s pretty low. And even if that were to happen…that’s going to happen anyway if the mayor doesn’t take action lol.
oh yeah, you would have to pull that Miracle craps roll out of your ass on two separate occasions, since there are two factions involved.
Yes, that’s too hard to enforce
Well, not quite. I think that in 1/4 cases, all three teammates end up on the same side. There are two states for each monster to be in (“left” or “right” side of the wall). By doing a random split, the mayor is assigning each person to one of two buckets randomly. 8 states overall, and in two of them, they’re on the same side (everyone on the left, everyone on the right).
Now, if the mayor doesn’t quite do it that way, they do indeed affect the probability.
In any case, I think we’re digging too far into details on a good strategic choice.
For the die analogy: The advantage we have in our scenario is that we’re not randomly rolling dice and leaving it up to chance. The numbers are sound, but we have intuition and deduction to our advantage.
If we lynch today, we should factor in evidence, the likelihood of our mark being recruited later (in the event we choose wrong), and weigh their worth as a civ vs the danger they’d pose as a mafioso.
We probably should’ve waited an extra day before started because right now we’re going to be spending a lot of time just getting the understanding of what teams can and can’t do down.
Hm.
10 role claims, with a handful of them being able to vouch for each other, all locked in town hall.
You have two 1/6 chances to hit 3. If you want to get technical no matter how many dice rolls you make it’s always a 1/6 chance.
Then the game would escalate quickly and unpredictably.
And, to be clear while not letting on more, we absolutely cannot do this.