Here are some comments about my proposed changes.
Zangief’s current matchups and tier position
He really only eats 1 arcade character, Abel. It seems like he probably beats a couple console characters badly, specifically Dan and Sakura, but it’s kind of hard to know for sure because almost no one uses those characters competitively. Early on everyone was so sure that Gief destroyed Viper, Dhalsim, Dictator, and Honda, but now I’d list all of those at even or even-ish matchups, so I won’t rule out the same against the console characters. I’ve already seen it happen with Cammy; what Cammy players originally thought was a terrible matchup is, in reality, pretty even.
At the same time, Gief really only gets eaten by 1 arcade character, Sagat. Matchups that earlier on seemed bad, like Blanka, Akuma, and Ryu, are in the end evenish or only slight losses, not so bad that the better player won’t win most of the time. It seems like Gief loses badly to Seth, but again, so few top level Seths have played so few top level Giefs and so rarely that it’s kind of hard to know for sure.
Overall, with just a few exceptions, Gief’s matchups range between something like 4.5-5.5 and 6-4. This means he ends up doing pretty well in the tiers, although the fact that his few losing and slight loss matchups happen to be against 3-4 of the other high tiered characters dampens that a bit. Considering that many of the characters Gief has slight wins against will probably get buffed in some ways, nerfing him to try to balance him against the SF4 cast instead of the SSF4 cast is a bad idea. With other characters getting buffed, Gief can remain exactly as good overall and still end up slightly lower in the tiers, and that’s totally fine. Any proposed buffs or nerfs have to take into account the fact that other characters will probably get buffed and nerfed as well.
Problem areas
Gief has only 2 bad areas, and they’re debatable but potentially bigger problems with potential buffs to other characters. The first is that his footsies aren’t as mobile as they could be. The reason this is debatable is that they’re already very good against some characters, but against others they’re really not. The ones where they’re not, it’s because a couple of his normals are just barely lacking, and luckily slightly buffing the ones that could be more useful there probably won’t have much effect against other characters. And again, we have to assume that other characters will get a bit better in footsies anyway. The second area is that with other characters presumably getting a little better overall, Gief might need to do a little more damage once he actually gets in to make up for the fact that his opponents will probably be better at defending.
I do think Gief has 2 areas that are problems because they’re too good, though. The first is that his defense is probably too good. For a character who’s supposed to be all about opening up the opponent and dealing damage inside, Gief sure does have some sick defensive moves. I like the fact that he forces his opponent to play differently, I think that’s good, but I don’t want it to be so forced that many opponents almost can’t pressure me at all. This isn’t so much a necessarily balance change as a change in Gief’s goals that I think would be desirable. Another thing that’s probably too good is that he’s too damaging at mid-range. Now, I think Gief should be good in footsies, but I don’t think his footsies should be so damaging, so I’d probably cut the damage on them a bit even while making them better in other ways.
The lessons from all this are that any changes to Gief have to be very slight, specifically targeted to deal with certain things and not with others, and not in the end make him any better or worse overall. I think my proposed list of changes does that.
Footsie changes: normals quicker, kick lariat moves faster horizontally, dash faster, regular green hand better at neutralizing high fireballs, normals less damaging, ex hand less damaging
Up close: neutral throw does more damage, ex spd does less damage
Defense changes: punch lariat is less effective as antiair, antiair normals slightly faster, kick lariat less effective at hitting things, ex spd has longer startup, ex spd does less damage