Alright folks, EVO is coming up. So let’s play a little game. Everyone gets 100 dollars. I’m going to lay out what I feel are currently the odds on people to WIN EVO. These odds were constructed with some very delicate math work based on tonamento results, previous EVO results and some personal inferences. Also, each person is allowed to place bets on two people they will either place in the top 5 or top 8, top 5 right gives better payout. Of course, at any time, you can choose to predict the entire top 8 or top 8 with correct placings.
So first are what I feel are the odds to win HDR at EVO. If you disagree significantly with any of the odds or if you feel I left someone out, let me know and I will update correctly. I figure this could be a fun little game.
The favorite to win - John Choi at 5 to 2. Why John Choi you ask and not Afrolegends the defending champ? To be honest, even though Choi only plays this game at tournaments, to my knowledge he’s won every HDR event he’s entered. Further, I haven’t heard of Afro playing much lately so mathematically the odds on favorite is Mr. John Choi
Second - Afrolegends. Come on, he’s the defending EVO champ in HDR, can play the entire cast like he’s been maining them for years. The man could not play for five years and whip 95% of people who play this game. He comes in at a solid 7 to 2.
Third - Damdai. The man loves his ST / HDR. He’s been playing around with Ryu but his ability to counterpick has to makes for great tournament ability. He’s a solid number 3 at 6 to 1.
Fourth - Dark Gaiden. His ability to play Ryu is only really surpassed by John Choi. Ryu is the staple of the SF2 cast and is good enough to overcome any of Ryu’s (almost) bad matchups against inferior competition. 8 to 1
Fifth - Alex Valle. As Skisonic once said at MWC, “He’s been playing Ryu for 15,000 years!” And guess what, you play that long, you know your shit, you know all the tricks, all the gimmicks. He’ll be an extremely tough out and I believe he got an EVO seed for taking second at MWC. He’ll make the most of lesser competition in his pool and will likely breeze through to Semis. 10 - 1
Sixth - David Sirlin. He made the game for crying out loud! There’s an argument that can be made that he should be higher, but really he hasn’t done much lately except for continue to defend Fei Long against critics. If he comes to play seriously and win, he could do it. But if he’s still on the board as playing Fei Long just to prove a point, these odds could change. 12 to 1
Seventh - Daigo “The Beast” Umehara. YOU MEAN HE’S NOT HIGHER? Well here’s where maybe the math is stuck with insufficient data. Last year’s EVO was not great for him in HDR. In fairness, he doesn’t play HDR except a couple times a year when he travels state side for tourneys. We know he likes it, but doesn’t play it at home and treats it like ST. But no one can deny his skill or his ability to read oppoents. This could be a real value at 13 to 1.
Eighth - Graham Wolfe. Yes he hates HDR. But if he goes to EVO, do you really expect him not to play? He made top 8 last year, he’s got one of the best boxers on the planet, it would be hard to see a situation if he didn’t play not making it very far and obviously maining a top tier beast always helps. 15 to 1
Ninth - RoyalPhlush. What??? REALLY? That’s what the numbers say. He mains Ryu (good start), has a great game (better start), oh yeah, he WON MWC (which means EVO seed), of course its not confirmed yet that he’s going, but if he does, expect him to breeze to Semis as well. The real question is, could he choke under the bright lights on the biggest stage? He’s not exactly what you would call a tourney vet, and not to mention, having a pad player win a SF event at EVO might make Madcatz execs die… a long shot at 20 to 1.
Tenth - TheloTheGreat. Honda? Top 10 chance to win EVO? Yeah, but even that’s not great. He mains Honda, has bad matchups, will need some luck, but there’s no one who knows how to hold down back better than Thelo Louis Paquin. A long shot at 25 to 1.
The field. Do you think someone other than the names listed above is going to win EVO? The rest of the field still looks damn talents and has enough pull to make some surprises. Think about names not currently on this list, Justin Wong, Sanford Kelly, AfroCole, a whole bunch of players who will make noise who the numbers didn’t give the respect to. I’d give the field 35 to 1 at this time, now with that being said, particularly as names come up I didn’t account for and such, these odds are subject to change at the “betting” takes place like any real game.
Payout for picking the top 8 correctly 50 to 1.
Payout for picking the top 8 correctly in order from 1 to 7 is 150 to 1.
Correctly put two names from the field into top 5, 90 to 1.
Correctly put two names from the field into top 8, 70 to 1.
A couple prop bets for fun.
A double perfect in a top 8 match - 40 to 1
A double perfect in grand finals - 80 to 1
A double double perfect in any top 8 match - 150 to 1
A double double perfect in a grand finals match - 300 to 1
IF THERE IS A BET YOU WANT TO PLACE BUT IS NOT LISTED, SAY PERSON X TO FINISH IN TOP 5 OR HIGHER LET ME KNOW AND I WILL DO THE MATH AND PUT THE ODDS UP.
You can place multiple wagers, you can divide your 100 however you choose. I’ve run so far 12 simulation tournaments expecting about a 200 person entry for HDR at EVO. Using as much information as I can from tonamento results, main characters, our consolidated tier listing from this thread, there’s some surprise results in some of them, so let the betting begin!
FULL DISCLAIMER: THERE IS NO ACTUAL MONEY CHANGING HANDS, THIS IS ALL IMAGINARY. IN COMPLIANCE WITH US FEDERAL LAW I AM OBLIGED TO INFORM YOU THAT ACTUAL MONETARY TRANSACTIONS OVER THE INTERNET FOR GAMBLING PURPOSES ARE ILLEGAL UNDER US FEDERAL CODE. THANK YOU FOR NOT PUTTING ME IN PRISON.
