The fact about Fei’s EX CW as a “good guess” is that it must be from a certain distance to have the ability to:
A) Intercept the SB in time and not be blocked
B) Still remain invincible to projectiles
C) Not get batted out by st.HP or MP (whatever that weird uppercut looking thing is where Guile looks like he’s going for a cat-stretch)
Thanks to Guile’s faster walk speed it can be easier for him to control that spacing and remain at that range where guesses are not beneficial to Fei. A bunch of feints also wouldn’t hurt to get Fei to waste meter and take damage for it.
Fundamentally, the match is different where meter counts–when Fei pushes Guile to the wall via patient walking. There’s merit to the argument where Guile will not have as much meter available when he gets to that point, especially if he relies on EX Boom for zoning. At the corner, Guile will end up doing more blocking than in Super, just to wait for that moment when he can punish an overhead, CW, jump-in, Focus, or bad Rekka. That could lead to Fei getting a meter advantage if his offense is tight enough, though it doesn’t necessarily mean that Guile will take a lot of damage if he can at least react to the overhead with stand blocking (or Flash Kick), and if he late-techs well.
That said, with even a random Flash kick, Guile regains positioning and can get back to where the game is in his favor at mid-screen. In this vein, while Fei can be random at mid-screen to get a “good guess,” Guile can do the same at the corner. Admittedly, Fei’s guess is more in his favor than Guile’s guess on a damage and positioning basis, however, Guile doesn’t have to open himself up to that random EX CW by remaining at an optimal range or even perhaps by turning up his offense (which we cannot forget in this match-up just because Guile traditionally zones). In sum, Fei’s offense requires more risk than Guile’s zoning, and the risk-reward ratio shows it, without a doubt.
As far as the jab-sweep buff for Fei, I haven’t seen any Feis really take advantage of the jump-in, especially when the jab can be converted to Rekkas for a corner knockdown. That doesn’t mean it won’t have an affect on the match–just that it hasn’t been shown to be a huge factor yet (though someone please prove me wrong so I gain some inspiration on when to use it, thanks :bgrin:)
In practice, I don’t think Guile can play this match totally turtle-like anymore and win that way unless he’s really sharp since Fei faces no threat when he only walks. With a few bursts of some meter-building offense, Guile makes this 5/5. Just to note though, Guile can completely shut down Fei in Super with his zoning game and some burst offense; forget Flash Kick FADC nonsense. It’s 6/4 there based on that. In AE where the dynamic shifts will be in Fei’s corner pressure vs Guile’s defense, and not some loss in Guile’s damage output. You wouldn’t see a dozen Flash Kicks in Super, so don’t count up those pennies lost. It makes more sense to look at Guile’s normals and EX Boom rate, and even then, you should look at it pessimistically, where Fei blocks most of the moves thrown randomly rather than as frame traps/set-ups. The question is, can Guile still zone effectively with his tools (sans randomness)? Maybe to a lesser degree than in Super, but I still think yes.