For this post I’m going to list the arranged diagram that James added to Thelo’s first post in this thread to be used as a reference. The second diagram in my post will be an altered version of the original based on my opinions of each match up. Any numerical value I change from the original chart will be color coded. If a character moves in rank from the original diagram then I will list a ± followed by a number indicating how many places that character changed. Lastly I’ll leave a brief writeup about why I changed certain numbers and why I think some characters needed to be shifted.
Changed Claw vs Ken to 6-4 (from 5.5-4.5). I think that Claw’s ground game can easily net him victories in 6 out of 10 matches. Ken is still solid vs Claw and can keep him going off the wall but Claw doesn’t need to touch the wall to win this match up in my opinion.
Changed Boxer vs Honda from 5-5 to 6-4 in Boxer’s favor. Hands have less effective hitboxes in this matchup compared to ST. Ochio throw does less dizzy and bounces away in the corner. Boxer’s changes such as harder to build meter and reduced Super damage don’t hurt him as much in this match.
Changed Dictator vs Ryu to 5-5 (from 4-6) because of the new invincibility to Devil’s Hand (mostly). Without a Super in ST, Dictator would eat a lot of chip damage in the corner, and he’d have to block meaty fireballs on wake up if he got knocked down. If you blocked a meaty fireball in the corner your opponent could throw another or close the distance and threaten all sorts of stuff (if he already wasn’t point blank). Now Ryu players cannot lock you into the corner not nearly as effectively as they could in the past. And Ryu’s Super can completely be avoided (or passed through) on wake up instead of having to be taken for chip damage and then having to deal with Ryu if he walked up to you while you were in blockstun. Devil’s Hand makes this match even in my opinion. Ryu’s fake fireball is useful in this match but nowhere near as useful a tool as the new Devil’s Reverse is.
Slightly changed Dictator vs Ken to 4.5-5.5 (from 4-6). Knee bash is far less effective in this match, Ken has to take an extra step to get within throw range off his usual tick set ups, and Dictator already had a larger throw range in ST. You can counter throw much more easily if he tries to use a hold in this match. Devil’s Reverse also can get you around fireballs effectively as well. Still though, Ken has a DP that can’t be safe jumped, so Dictator’s okizeme is slightly less dangerous in this match than the other shoto, Ryu.
Slightly changed Dictator vs Honda to 4.5-5.5 (from 4-6). I hesitate to make this match even but it’s not nearly as bad as it was in ST. In Super Turbo, Honda could annihilate Dictator in the corner with the Ochio throw loop. Now that’s gone, and Honda’s hands have worse hit boxes and deal less damage, and Ochio doesn’t dizzy as much. I don’t see this match as scary anymore for Dictator.
Changed Dictator vs Zangief to 4.5-5.5 (from 6-4). Not sure how anyone got Dictator being in favor for this match. Zangief has a myriad of normal attacks that stuff scissor kicks and psycho crusher. Dictator has no reliable reversal to beat command throws so he’s almost always free for SPDs if Zangief touches him. Dictator has to keep Zangief out the entire match while building meter in case he needs to get out of jail. Trying to knock Zangief down and cross him up with Dictator is also not easy (meaning you lose some of those ToD victories).
Slightly changed Dictator vs Guile to 5.5-4.5 (from 5-5). Dictator can knock Guile down quite often in this match and Guile is easy to both crossup and safe jump. Dictator can also safe jump Guile, tick him to that Guile is out of throw range, and then throw him for free. Dictator’s new standing jab is also a new tool in this match though it isn’t anything game changing. Devil’s Reverse however is. Guile loses his flash kick charge if he throws a sonic boom, so you can Devil’s Reverse through sonic booms, and Guile has to go back into crouch and remain stationary. Guile’s new overhead isn’t something I’d worry about in this match, it’s far better for Guile to try to cross Dictator up mid screen or to jump right on him while he’s cornered. Guile also dizzies really easily so he must block after taking two or three successive hits.
Changed Dictator vs Hawk to 7-3 (from 5-5). T.Hawk might have a new safe dive but he still can’t jump at Dictator without getting massacred. Jumping jab and short whiff against Dictator if he crouches. The splash can be hit with some of Dictator’s crouching normals. T.Hawk’s DP can whiff against crouching Dictator from nearly point blank range. And Dictator can knock Hawk down like crazy and cross him up safely including having safe blockstrings if the crossup is blocked. Dictator should just run away, build meter, then try to knock Hawk down and cross him up. If you have solid execution with Dictator and can keep knocking Hawk down without getting knocked down yourself…then this match is pretty simple. Sure if Dictator gets knocked down (without meter) he’s screwed but that’s much easier said than done for T.Hawk.
Changed Dictator vs Cammy to 8-2 (from 6-4). Dictator has a better throw range, can punish tons of her special moves, and doesn’t need to rush her down in this match. Very, very winnable for Dictator, and very tough for Cammy to get any kind of offense going. Cammy dizzies easily as well. I never feel threatened as Dictator in this match.
Changed T.Hawk vs Ryu to 3-7 (from 4.5-5.5). Knockdown dive being gone makes getting Ryu down on the ground much harder. Fake fireball even just once in the round can bait Hawk into diving at the wrong time and getting pushed further back out by a dragon punch. T.Hawk’s new throw whiff in this match hurts him incredibly. Any throw attempt can be beaten with a dragon punch whereas in ST every command throw was 100% safe.
Changed T.Hawk vs Ken to 2-8 (from 5-5). T.Hawk cannot safe jump Ken, and command throws lose to dragon punches, and the dive doesn’t score you a knockdown. Good Ken players should punish any okizeme jumping attacks with a reversal fierce dragon punch. And Ken’s Super can be used as a reversal now…meaning you can eat Ken’s Super from a command throw whiffing. Now matter how much you mix up ticks in this match you are going to get DP’d out of a throw maybe 1/3rd of the time if your opponent is good. Great opponents however won’t even let you get close enough for that command throw attempt.
Changed T.Hawk vs Chun to 6.5-3.5 (from 5.5-4.5). Chun has been nerfed like crazy. R.Hawk has all of O.Hawk’s normals including far standing jab which stuffs Chun’s reversals. R.Hawk’s splash also destroys Chun. This is one of the few matches where T.Hawk players can absolutely obliterate their opponents once they get in. And getting in for this match isn’t nearly as tough as matches like the shotos/DJ/Guile.
I’m still editing this. Just saving the post for now.