Alright, even more experience gained last night at a casual gathering:
Rog VS Guile
Booms baby, keep em coming, there IS a sweet spot, it can go like this;
cr.mk and cr.lk can and WILL stuff the low dash punch, follow with boom to push him back. Be very careful of TAP, that WILL hit you if you are careless with your pokes, however, both your jabs and lks can be canceled into a FK on reaction to a TAP, free damage.
There is also a sweet spot for boom pressure, just outside the range of his frc headbutt, learn it, if he goes for the big headbutt, you can punish HARD, I use back sobats for positioning to get to this range. (because it can stuff lunges, and allows for quick booms.)
Do not forget that booms at point blank can stuff everything but the headbutt, if he aint crouching you can boom, throw out some cr jabs to see if hes a jumper, if he is you can easily deal with it.
Its a tense matchup, but Guile can make Boxers life suck real bad, the #1 thing you need to watch for is his super, however, if you are at the “sweet spot” for booms to bait the headbutt, you are also at the same sweet spot for the super, if he uses it to go through that boom, you can block or even jump over the super.
Last and certainly not least, I bet you have the whole thought “I know what hes going to do, yet he is still locking me down”, my answer to this is FLASH KICK HIM IN THE FACE, thats right, Flash Kick, as soon as you get his pattern down, you control everything, point blank FKs will destroy any kind of predictability in Boxer. Rog only has a couple of really solid “lockdown” strings, and if you see them coming, you CAN flash kick him, trust me.
I still have an easier time with Rog if im playing Sim, but Guile can do it, he has all the tools, its all about maintaining that perfect spacing, at this spacing, Rog has next to nothing but pure suprise tactics.