Nah, certain players of Hugo are getting a lot smarter/more patient. Kubo and Amakara are probably the best examples I’ve seen. People are getting a better feel for waiting for their opportunity with him rather than doing, like, YOLO backbreakers whenever they’re down on life.
Also I want to caution people about recommending d,d+MK as a magic bullet. The move has some nice lower body projectile invulnerability, but it still has a fairly big whiff profile if mistimed. I for one would be hesitant to use it against fireballs outside of, say, Focus attack range when I could instead just, like, walk and block, MAYBE destroy it with a clap if I thought I wouldn’t get whiff punished for it. It’s a tool to be used, but just because you don’t SEE it used doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the one missing piece of the matchup puzzle.
I think there is no magic bullet to Dhalsim (the early favorite for that, s. HP, didn’t really pan out, since it’s not fast enough to punish the 2nd hit of Sim s. MK if it absorbs the 1st one) – just lots of walking and blocking and INCREDIBLE patience. I think when in doubt you just have to walk up, block the Yoga Fire and accept the chip, because s. MK covers the ground VERY well.
Key spacing in that matchup appears to be to either stay outside s. MK range and try to provoke a whiff big enough so that Hugo can jump, walk, or clap forward without getting whiff punished by s. MK. So if you’re inside s. MK range, blocking needs to be the first thing on your mind. Let him get one s. MK out of his system and figure out his tendencies for the move – whether he’s gonna machine-gun it or create a gap to bait you. Test him with VERY slight moves like whiff jabs (including the occasional spam jab to at least make him THINK you intend to stuff s. MK with it) and walking forward, MAYBE a whiff clap if you’re sure he’s not ready for it. Figure out where the readable gaps are and use those to empty jump forward, MAYBE splash if you’re DAMN sure he’s gonna try an early anti-air that you might be able to whack with it. You KEEP doing this, tolerating all the chip. Lose entire casual sets to your local Sim by chip and time alone if you have to. Develop an IRON tolerance for this approach and watch like a HAWK for him to get uncomfortable and do something dumb at a range where you can get a knockdown (or at least a big fat favorable trade or counter hit) for your read.
So I see this matchup as 3-7 for Hugo but no worse than that. Hyperbolic numbers like 2-8 or 1-9 are uncalled for. Hugo does WAAAAAY too much damage off lucky reads (lucky though they may be) to be considered as bad off as, say, Gief was against Seth back in the day (“the day” being, like, 2010). And his anti-air is probably the best of any grappler in SF4, to boot. Jumping brainlessly against Hugo is an excellent way to die, and if you get close enough, Hugo can make jumping seem REALLY tempting.