At this point NK is over-committed. If NK does nothing, no one will ever take them seriously ever again. I know they’ve pulled shit like this in the past but this time is just too far.
One expert has noted that they pull big stunts like this shortly after the inauguration of a new SK president, so it’s possible it’s this, but I want to see what provocations they did to Lee Myung-bak and Roh Moo-hyun when they took office before I say that’s the case.
This is starting to scare some Koreans. I’m not one to flip out over NK’s antics, and tell my family back home when I’m in Korea and they start this crap, “If people in Seoul aren’t panicked, I’m not going to either.”
That sounds logical to me.
But then, NK and logic have never gotten along well.
When embassies start suggesting to their citizens in the region that they should prolly think about buying plane tickets, that’s when I’ll start taking these threats seriously. There are too many eyes and ears on NK to consider this situation truly “volatile”-- as in, a crazy or violent person isn’t as threatening if you already know how violent or crazy they are. At least that’s what I tell myself to feel better.
U dont let the violent crazy person build nukes
North Korea blocking entry to Kaesong is serious business. That’s one outlet of cash for them, something the government begs for. Something’s brewing big now.
You’re still sort of missing the part about how we COULD attack Iraq because they didn’t have nukes, while we CANNOT attack North Korea because they do.
You’re basically spot on. North Korea is actually still encouraging the Chinese to enter the Koreas. When that stops, that’s when it’s time to bail.
The situation is quite dangerous.
Worst possible scenario (and while unlikely, not science fiction at all):
N.K. attacks somehow (Seoul is a very easy target for them, even with their outdated equipment - which is still way better than Saddam’s Iraq btw, and that still gave a big alliance trouble on a much easier ground to fight on - they could deal huge damage and million casualties easily)
USA counterattacks of course
Other anti-West states such as Iran actually start aiding N.K.
China while not liking NK can’t accept a massive US Army approach that near to their territory, and they start fighting back too.
Third World War.
again, this has like a 1% chance to happen. Which is still a huge percentage for the risk it bears. I don’t feel safe at all. This is the worst crisis since the 60’s Cuban Missiles incident
The real key here will be China.
What will China do? Will they choose to come to NK’s aid or simply watch?
agree. Setting back the Doomsday Clock now is largely in their hands
If America plays their conspiracy cards well, then China could end up “accidentally” getting hit with a nuke
Considering their economic situation, that’s a bold move. Missing, what are your overall thoughts? Since you live in South Korea, I’m sure your perspective on this would be different.
So this is what the ancient Mayans were talking about! Good prediction considering that they were only a few months off…
I’ll try to find a link to post here, but there are reports that China is moving their military to the North Korean border, which experts say means they’re prepared to come to NK’s defense.
I don’t live in Seoul now, I’m living in China. My level expertise in this is based on my watching North Korean news blurbs for a long time, knowing North Korean defectors in South Korea, and the like.
North Korea actually locked down Kaesong in 2009, and that time they didn’t even let the Southerners leave the complex when they did, they were stuck there for several days. This time, they let them leave, but they aren’t letting them back in. So, last time, they had basically hostages for several days that they could possibly barter for aid over. This time, they have a bunch of factories that South Korean companies could scrap in favor of development in rural areas south of Seoul. Some of the factories have North Korean workers, but still, it’s a smaller scale deployment than was projected when the Kaesong Industrial Complex was approved between the two Koreas, so there isn’t much that the North stands to gain by keeping them open.
You have the lines of communication completely severed between the two, including the emergency military hotline, you have the Chinese military moving into place in Dandong and Shenyang, you have reactors restarting. North Korea’s preparing something big, and they’re trying to keep everybody’s noses out of their business. Surely they aren’t oblivious to the fact that America can track them via satellite imaging, but they’re trying to get as many people out of their hair as possible so they can mount whatever they want.
On the flip side, the AP branch is still open in Pyongyang, they haven’t thrown out people in the embassies in Pyongyang yet. If you start hearing that the British and Swedish embassies are KO’d in NK, then I’d be really worried. Note that the Swedish embassy is the only embassy that can give consular service to Americans in North Korea.
But at this point, what are they going to do? They have missiles trained on Seoul, but if one even launches, but fails to hit, the US and SK will invade, China or not. China MAY not be lined up for defense, but to bolster border security in the event of a refugee crisis worse than they already face coming across the border. They do have enough nuclear material to make 4 crude bombs, but they don’t have anything to deliver such a payload to South Korea, they can’t make the material small enough yet to fit as a warhead in a missile. Even if they had a reliable bomber plane, they don’t have the fuel to even make such a delivery. If we even saw such a plane on our radar, they’d be dead before they crossed the DMZ.
So what this amounts to, in my opinion, is posturing. I guess like a RTS, if you’re planning something big, you make sure any scouts are out of your area so there’s no possible espionage, then you prepare it, then you launch it so that the enemy doesn’t know it’s coming. It’s either that, or they’re playing the “spoiled kid in the cereal aisle” role again to get what they want, which is food and money. I’d say 30/70 on that.
To quote Dr. Dre, who commentated on this issue so eloquently: “Now you wanna run around talking about guns like I ain’t got none. What? You think I sold them all?”
NK doesn’t have anything that couldn’t be shot out of the air by the US or japan. and they shut down the kaesong plant because they were losing face (lol koreans) and made to look like idiots when the (south) korean politicians and media were like “lol we’re not taking you serious since you won’t even shutdown kaesong.”
regardless, fundamentally north korea wants aid. they’ll do whatever it takes to get it and actually starting a war won’t get it for them. bombing a lightly populated island? maybe. kidnapping some fishermen? possibly. but let some shit go down in the greater seoul area and it’ll be over.
older south koreans hate the north because they came from a time when NK commandos stormed the blue house, shot up the parliament, killed the first lady, etc… (all of those are separate incidents btw), the younger generations are more sympathetic and thus are in favor of giving aid (putting pressure on the govt to do so) and trying to play nice…launching an actual attack would kill that naivete ASAP. and considering there’s no way they can win an actual war (nuclear or otherwise), it doesn’t really behoove them to take it there.
and like taito said, i’ll be worried when i get that email from the embassy instructing me where to cop my emergency flight out of this motherfucker and not a second before.
they were turned off because we (the UN, really US and SK) gave them rice and fuel to turn them off.
Don’t kid yourself. If the Chinese are moving military to the North Korean border, it’s not to defend them. It’s to annex them once America is finished raping them.
China doesn’t want to go to war at all, especially not over North Korea. If America goes to war with DPRK, it’s going to be over fast, with possibly some annoying battles with military leaders with pockets of soldiers who don’t want to lose their control. Or hell, it could end like the first Gulf War and you’d have the military just instantly surrender knowing they stand no chance and that they’re not willing to stand behind their glorious leader any longer.
The hard part will be convincing the everyday citizens of North Korea that you’re invading to help them.
China will just sit back, say harsh words towards America, possibly give North Korea a little behind the scenes aid, and block the borders to prevent anybody from getting the fuck out. If they go in to defend North Korea, they look stupid in the eyes of the international community, and China is all about them $$$$$$$ now, so that’s not an option. It will be like Iraq/Russia all over again. Russia loved Iraq but when the US went to war, Russia just sat back and bitched about how much they didn’t like what was going on.
I read an article about how China try to persuade North Korea into focusing on improving their economic but that didn’t work out since Chubby took the reign from his father. I know China is vocal in their support for North Korea but behind the scene they are fed up with North Korea’s ongoing antics just like the rest of the international community.
Got an email from the embassy this morning saying “no really, everything’s fine.”