Your plan assumes you always have meter. And he never wall jumps unless im trying to get in. If he sees that I sit there and try te “bait” game he is contempt with throwing fireballs. He isnt the type to do stupid things, or things with out reason.
You cant shut down his nj.hp game. Its not possible, at least with out sacrificing punishment oppurtunities, and sacrificing positional advantage. And he only does it to zone. Once im in it stops, and he does his mix up game where you have to guess because you have no invul frames or a GTFO me move. Although ST works, it isnt consistent enough.
THis assumes he is stupid enough to throw one. He isnt. If im sitting on Ultra one he doesnt even jump because I have gotten him plenty of times. He would rather lose to time out than some stupid mistake.
Again this assumes he doesnt know his buttons. jf.mp or jb.mp stops anything you have because of its hit box start up, and active frames. And its not as easy as land U1 or an Izuna loop. He has telport it wont work. Only position i have a slight advantage is poking range, and full advantage is on wake up. Any ohter position and its bad. Outside and he zones badly, if im blocking its command grab, dives, neutral jump, crossups. On wake up its even worse because of ambigious cross ups, and they are nasty.