Well i can see why you don’t get my point sasaki.
Technically he should have to guess at least at every move.
BUT eventually every thing in this game always revolves around
option A beats option B
option D beats Option A
but option C beats option D ,
though Option C loses to option B.
Any complexification of that system is basically irrelevant since any new move always fall under A<->C or B<->D or in the category where it may beat opposition but in an unpredictable manner and is basically a utter random gamble.
When vega is in range for a throw/karathrow.
He is at a range where cr.lp, cst.lp, cr.lk and st.hk only are somehow safe to poke, everything else (and even st.hk) is either statistically dangerous or heavily punishable on block.
cls.lk/st.lk is unreliable because you are around the range where you might get the cls.lk and whiff it because you are in fact in a range where vega should use fst.lk
cls.mk or cls.mp are somehow intresting but I know very few people and that include me who can use them naturally during footsies or throw set ups.
So on the receiving end the mix up is not too difficult to decypher.
You expect 9 times out of 10 something in the following taste because these options are safe on vega’s side we use them as long as we don’t need to resort to something more fool hardy.
Walk up karathrow/throw and that doesn’t beat OS autoblock <-> stand up walk up late throw
Walk up + fast mid range poke and that doesn’t beat OS autoblock <-> stand up walk up late throw .
Walk up block and that loses to OS autoblock <-> stand up walk up late throw.
Walk up focus backdash loses to OS autoblock <-> stand up walk up late throw.
Other options might cause a surprise and on occasion beat the OS but are pretty risky So naturally advanced player will be reluctant to use them right off the bat.
Walk up block offset throw doesn’t beat the OS and is risky
Walk up + slow moves loses to the OS and is opening the guy for even more dangerous counters.
Walk up + backflip/backdash doesn’t beat the OS and are risky.
Walk up + jump out rising arc HP doesn’t beat the OS and is risky.
Walk up + jump in and rising arc HP beats the OS but is heavily punishable on landing.
PoM, cls.mp,cls.mk,fst.mk and a few other things beat the OS often but can be stuffed more easily that the usual bread and butter short range pokes, do not cause any major threat and don’t put vega in a favorable position onward. So they are an acceptable risk.
So even if on the paper there is no way to know for sure, and even if technically on the receiving end of a walk up karathow mixup you need to guess, It is very safe to bet on the Option Select once you have the skill and vega match up knowledge to pull it. And you can capitalize on that until vega uses 70 hp moves for around 70% of his karathrow mix up opportunities.
As for blockstrings : it is pretty obvious you have tons of frames between 2 blocked vega’s cr.lp (~24 frames) to input the Option select at every single iteration, it is much more difficult to do that on a chun-li jab that comes out every ~10 frames. So in the end tick throw setups from vega obey a very similar flowchart.
To summarise the guy has a one procedure that keep him in a rather safe position until a given distance regardless of frame advantage, until the vega player resorts to low reward low risk moves or high reward high risks setups and I think that is the ultimate goal of any good defense , force the other guy to gamble more often than you have to.
To me it is just a high skill 8000+ BP dudes fast paced version of the : - “do I dp or do I I hug db on wake up dilemma”