Are ya’ll using U2 or U1 vs Balrog? The U2 OS is cool and all, but I really like anti air U1 and beating out ex dash punches with sweep/c.mk U1.
I still use U1 for sweep cancels and AA. U2 is great but most good Rog’s will block 90% of the time.
I didn’t understand all of Anti ryu’s setups to be honest.
@Versatile: I still go for U2. Use it to punish regular dash punches and for the OS. If i see the other rog jumps a lot, baits a lot of sweeps, or is fond of the ex’s, i change to u1.
Ok so after all the fighting that has gone on over the Cammy match up I finally had the time to do a proper statistical analysis. So here it is. My total sample size is 61 games all of which can be found on youtube. Of these matches there are a total of 32 tournament matches and 20 casual matches.
The matches are as follows
JR vs Sako
JR vs DJ Divine
Tokido vs Alounie
Tokido vs Sako
Ed ma vs Shady K
Fujino vs Daigo
ShinAkuma204 vs Killersasa
Many of the casuals used can be found on o ShinAkuma o’s channel.
Tournament Matches
Total played: 32
Total won by Akuma: 14
Calculated probability of Akuma victory: 44%
Expected Deviation: +/- 5%
Population Variance:7.875
95% confidence interval: 28%-58%
Casual Matches
Total played: 20
Total Akuma wins: 8
Calculated probability of Akuma victory: 40%
Population Variance: 4.8
Expected Deviation: +/- 5%
95% confidence interval: 25%-55%
F-Test
This one’s for you Shin. This is a statistical test to determine if two different populations are equivalent or not. If you are curious you can go look it up. This is one of several tests used in clinical trials to determine if medicine actually works or not.
Calculated F value: 1.64
Critical value (30,19 df): 2.07
Therefore the two populations are not statistically different and can be assumed to be of the same population (aka there is no difference)
Overall Matches
Total played: 61
Total Akuma wins: 25
Calculated probability of Akuma victory: 41%
Population Variance: 14.75
Expected Deviation: +/- 5%
95% confidence interval: 26%-55%
I also did Tokido’s stats and found his win rate against Cammy is about 41%.
So in the end what does this mean? Based off the population the Cammy match up is 4-6 for us, the deviation says it is possible to go even with a Cammy player, and that casuals are no different match up wise from tournaments.
If you have any questions feel free to ask.
DAMN. lol, seriously though, good stuff Sol.
I’m glad my videos were able to help. :tup:
I should show this to my brother to see what he thinks of this. Lol. He got his PHD in Applied Mathematics at Rice Universtiy [he was actually a double major, with some other kind of math that I can’t remember. lol]
I hate math by the way, just so so much. :-/
Shin Akuma 204 is always right, he doesn’t have to ask no fucking questions.
Casuals are bs, tournament matches are all that counts and you just lost 30 mins of your life.
j/k (or well, that’s what he’ll probably say).
On a more serious note, that’s a great analysis and that was a good read. Brings back memories of college, hehe
Are you using online play in your sample pool?
I hope this isn’t to discredit online play (especially in Japan) where it’s been noted multiple times by top players that it is almost identical to offline.
(GodsGarden Online, 100 game set between Daigo / Tokido, etc. etc.)
Online play can be and is very vital to practicing matchups.
Well we have Daigo one time saying that it was virtually identical to offline when promoting an online tourney his company was sponsoring.
[media=youtube]7YI-mhE_Q_g#t=1m55s[/media]
Online play is different than offline play and has factors that come with it that would never exist offline. Don’t get me wrong online play in Japan is probably the best online experience possible, but it is still online.
The only online play I have used is Japanese online play where lag is the least likely to play a factor. I was actually doing a separate pool for online play, I compared Japanese online play to offline casuals, but again they proved not to be significantly different to say we couldn’t factor it in. The offline casual matches were a 5 game set played by JR and Sako, an offline 3 game set played by Tokido and Sako.
I have actually played personally on Japanese internet and let me say it really does feel like you are playing in person. I think the lag time on the connection I had was 5ms which isn’t even half a frame.
If I expanded it to US online play then the crap can be all over the place and personally I think Cammy does better in lag against Akuma because Akuma can’t stop her from dive kicking all day.
If someone wants to get me additional credible data then go for it. More sample size means more accurate data although getting it more accurate past about 40 means adding an additional 100 matches. It becomes a study of declining returns.
Your results would be more accurate by removing online play entirely. AFAIK SSF4 online has at least 2 frame delay no matter what.
The accuracy does not change whether I include them or not. I stated before I analyzed it with discrimination toward Japanese online and there was no statistical difference. Also they only make up 6 of the 61 matches. Without those 6 matches the population does not have a significant change.
Only 6 of those matches were played online?
…I told you…next it’s gonna be laggy monitors in some of those matches
Spoken like a true online warrior.
If you want to be specific. 6 casual matches were played online, 17 tournament matches came from GGO. .
But again as I have said twice now. Neither of the two showed a statistical difference under standard statistical tests. Overall there is a 5% chance the two populations are different based off of the calculations performed.
If I were doing drug related research that would be enough to give a drug the green light for the next stage of testing.
JR vs Sako
JR vs DJ Divine
Tokido vs Alounie
Tokido vs Sako
Ed ma vs Shady K
Fujino vs Daigo
ShinAkuma204 vs Killersasa
Looking at your list of the players specified I located 27 offline tourney matches, 17 won by Akuma. That’s a 62% win ratio. You said there was 32 matches but I’m not sure if those are part of the 6 you mentioned as online.
Oh and removing GG2 does subtract 7 wins but it also subtracts 10 losses out of the total 17 matches played.
The only problem I have with the list is those who represent Akuma. Such as JR and EdMa. Dont get me wrong, they are good strong players, but I dont think that their Akumas are that strong compared to likes of Tokido, Infiltration, Toxy, and even Four Wude and -6.
Even then you have to consider how they stack up against the players on Cammys side such as Daigo, Alioune and Sako.
3 matches JR vs DJ Divine
2 matches Tokido vs Unkown at Stun Fest
2 matches Tokido vs Aloiune at Stun Fest
3 matches Tokdio vs Aloiune at Beatby (Including Teams)
4 matches Tokido vs Sako GG2
17 matches Tokido vs Sako GGO
4 matches ShinAkuma vs KillerSasa
35 Total. 14 wins.
If you remove GG2 you receive 18 matches and 7 wins. 39%
So I don’t know where you are getting your 58% from. Unless you included a ton of your own matches that I didn’t.
The 6 I mentioned were casuals matches BTW.
Match results beside the names. Wins by Akuma are the first digit, total matches played is the second.
Not sure what numbers you are getting but this is what I get with online.
35 matches 16 won by Akuma 45%
or
35 matches 18 won by Akuma 51% (depends on which result you are using with my matches)
Remove online play:
14 matches 8/10 won by Akuma for a 57%/71% win ratio. Seems like a fairly significant variance to me.