Nothing like that is ever safe. Your opponent has to make the decision between baiting a reversal or going for another tick throw each time. (OK, so some actions in SF might be safe in certain terms, like throwing a fireball from full-screen at blanka, but that isn’t what we’re talking about here.)
Your posts seem to show that you’re looking for some sort of solid answer, like the answer to a math problem. Some situations in SF work something like that, but this is not one of them. Work on your Yomi and don’t be afraid to take guesses. (Also, it helps if you can do jab shoryus instead of fierce, as often players will have trouble punishing jabs… you could even do another jab shoryu as you land from your first just in case your opponent decides to catch and throw you as you come down.)
If you find your opponents can read you like a card, it’s because, well, you are being a card with I ALWAYS DO THIS written in big sharpie across the face. (I know there are pro players that are basically psychic, but I assume you’re not playing against Daigo Umehara here.)
You don’t even need to break your “scrub rule” in order to deal with this. Whether you will do tick throw in the corner strategies is irrelevant to how you defend against incoming tick throw attempts, unless you strategy is to 100% lock down the opponent with tick throws (impossible against any good player) so he can never get it going on you, Learn to recognize setups, bait them and then punish the opponent for trying to tick throw you. Also practice mindgames on how to punish your opponent after the tick. Or maybe just parry the tick and go into a DP right then and there. You MUST be unpredictable to succeed in any good fighting game, even games without parrying. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve gone online only to notice that some Ken jumps in with a j.HK at me about 75% of the time when I throw a fireball in relatively close proximity. Basically, just do the fake fireball (Or OG fake for 3s / 4, which is just doing the input a lot without the punch button added on.) to bait him to jump and then EX DP him when he comes over to your side. Boom, you’ve got him, Your trap worked. And the best thing about traps is that even some decent players may have no conception of them being trapped. You’d be amazed how many times one player falls for the same setup 3-5 times over the course of as many matches…
Think of it this way; in Poker unpredicitability is an enormous asset, to the degree that good players will eschew the idea of playing as statistically sound as possible in favor of making plays that totally misrepresent their actual situation. Certain situations in SF work the same way; when you can’t go off reaction, ie when you’re in a double-blind situation, you have to make guesses and sometimes take risks.
Tick throws are no problem in ST. They’re good when there’s a clever setup to bait you into the tick throw position, (Good Blankas always get me with that shit) but at the same time it’s really quite easy to get out of any loop in ST, so long as your character has some sort of shoryuken move. HDR fixed most of the most annoying loops, like Dhalsim’s noogie.
