my completely unscientific analysis of the daigo v momo battle:
the match came down to about 3 things, neutral game was 90% daigo baiting slides to wiff and momo trying to gain the right spacing to hit with safe slide while also staying out of walk up low forward fireball range… this makes it really turtly cause ryu doesnt have a really good answer for max range slide besides a bunch of stuff that is unsafe… like holding focus or crouch blocking for extended periods of time… either would have given ibuki an advantage in footsies if they had have been done anywhere near predictably.
momo had a hard time aa’ing daigo cause daigo rarely jumped and momo had to constantly think about the 2 things mentioned above… very hard to reactively aa when you’ve already got 2 things on your mind.
funny thing is that ibuki had the initiative almost the entire time… ryu needed to avoid slide at all times which meeant that he was constantly being backed up by momo.
ibuki was getting in more than enough but couldnt take advantage of blocked frame advantage situations cause all throws were mostly getting teched and her frame traps werent working with a high enough percentage… daigo basically just blocked/crouchteched the entire time and momo couldnt really do anything about it.
momo got the first few wins from spacing that was too aggressive (too close) on daigos part… momo did well when daigo tried to play positionally aggressive… which is why daigo had to slow his shit down.
there were a few pacing changes in the match as well:
the first one was when daigo started spacing further after about the 4th match or so.
the second one was when momo started to jump in alot more… around the tenth match? it got momo a win, but ended up making him lose the next 2-3 matches really quickly.
then momo slowed his shit down and daigo resumed his turle spacing, which was when the next pacing change occurred:
daigo started to aggressively go in with the walk forward or dash forward cr.mk xx fireballs from neutral… momo didnt adjust quickly enough and got bodied hardcore.
and then daigo rather obviously let momo win a 3rd match by playing like a complete twat, it wasnt that daigo lost respect for ibuki and started playing with no fear… he just straight up started to do some dumb shit like choosing not to block at certain times.
well there was more to it than that… but those were the underlying basics of the matchup, in a nutshell.
all in all i feel really good about the pacing of the matchup… i think it plays out in ibukis favor in the long run. the things that momo didnt do that i think will be paramount in the coming months are that momo at neutral always dashed and then pressured with a crouching jab… i think he would have been better served by using a crouch short instead and then going for a crouching or standing jab into bnb… gives ryu something a little more scary to worry about.
also, jumpin kunai when daigos spacing got so far i think would have been a good idea as well… easier to space in that range and gives ibuki an alternative way in other than dash, jump lk, and slide.
if momo had have adjusted well, i think he could have made good use of cr.mp xx mk tsumuji when daigos walkup mk xx fireball pattern got more aggressive and predictable towards the end of the match set… but momo was mentally drained at that point, and really didnt stand much a chance of making any real progress in taking the matchup back.
also i think momo would have done maybe a bit better if he had have used some fakes like st.lp and st.mp and cr.lp and cr.lk when daigo was so far away… just gives more noise for daigos computer like brain to sift through…
i also think momo could have used some resets and maybe a ground crossup or 2 when he was down like 7 matches just to give daigo a new look even if it wouldnt have worked…
but who knows, i would have gotten easily bodied 10-0 versus that ryu… probably wouldnt have even been able to give him an ultra.
but i still think it was well played by momo though, just needs to find some alternative block beaters besides throw… which wont be easy.
-dime