Just posted this on Neoempire.com in the UK - stuff on strong use of Kara by Sagat and what to be careful of.
For Nick and anyone else who might be interested ( and would welcome Cuongsters and any other Hondas input too if you read this), but some notes following some games I had with Alioune today (sagat matches). Not played Ryan Harts Sagat so cannot compare, but for me Alioune has the best Sagat I have faced - strengths are his use of Kara moves, his zoning and spacing. I wont bother with the ususal, don’t jump in stuff, but specifics against a strong Kara using and zoning Sagat - a rare breed but worth knowing.
when/if you are neutral jumping fireballs at full screen, be wary of moving too far forward in the air and try to delay putting out the HP to allow you to move until late. You can be Kara kneed when coming down, but delaying the input of HP actually stuffs when timed right. In effect you need to neutral jump without moving and then press HP after the apex of the jump to move. I tried this after the matches and it works well and stuffs most kara knee attempts. The worst thing in the games i had was neutral jumping a fireball and then getting hit with a Kara knee that pushed me onto the fireball behind me - one second opposite sides of the screen, the next I have eaten a knee and a fireball I thought had passed and had to start closing the space again . You might want to even think about moving backwards with the nj.hp to take you out of range.
Try to walk and duck under high Tigershots and nj.HP the low ones (or FADC to build meter, but only a couple). the range you want to get into is just outside tiger knee range when you are more dangerous and can punish overuse of firballs or Tiger knee or can start playing some neutral jump mind games (stay out of standing HK range though or you will get knocked back and have to start again if timed wrong). In this range the kara stuff pretty much stops. I say try to duck under the high ones as if you get hit by one wrong you eat a low one after the juggle by a top Sagat.
Try and get a good way towards getting Ultra. Once you have it, you make the Sagat player think twice about shooting randomly if you can get yourself 2/3-1/2 screen away charging and you can close the space a little easier. Takes some practice (I need more) to time the Ultra but if you can get it, it opens up the whole match because Sagat is cornered and you try your mix ups on Sagat with half his life gone. Also I found having the Ultra meant kara knees and kara shots stopped because moving closer and seeing it coming gives the Ultra more chance of hitting.
Do not try HP or MP headbutt for chip damage, both are punishable with Kara Tiger Uppercut on block. Also if Sagat jumps over your heabutt attempt you are going to eat something so at least do EX and lp ones it when he cnanot react to it.
Do try EX heabutt on blocked Tiger Knee. It will beat a follow up c.lp combo clean. Mix it up though as of course good players learn fast.
If/when you get in close, start the hands game going for pressure and mix ups.
know your spacing for s.hk, it beats start up fireballs as does s.hp if timed right.
The only other thing I can add is don’t get predictable and be prepared to wait for your chance (this is very important).
A Sagat who can Kara well and zone makes what is already a challenge for Honda seem like your worst nightmare, but I have seen Lord DVD counter it and have seen Cuongster beat it so will keep trying for sure.
On a foot note all other Sagats I played today I beat or took games off so the pain was worth it.
Last but not least and despite my first lines, do not jump in/forward unless there is a horrible tigershot thrown - could not help myself. You can be Kara Tiger uppercutted/kneeded even when you think you are safe from full screen and trying to close space quickly. The most priceless is Kara Tiger uppercut FADC, f.HK… you know the rest .